The Method to the Madness

Before I start the projections next week, here is a quick (and dirty) recap on how the bracket projections are done on this site.
Note: If you decide that you wan't to do a bracket yourself, Click on the Principles and Procedures link on the right hand side of the page.

Automatic Qualifiers

The AQ from each conference each week is determined by who has the
best in-conference record as of the day of the projection. Should there be a tie for 1st, the team that has won the head-to-head matchup will get the bid, but if the tied teams haven't met yet, the team with the better RPI rank(as of the day of the projection) will receive it. Each AQ team will have the name of the conference it represents listed in parenthesis.

At-Large Teams

The 34 teams are chosen as if the season had ended the day prior to projection and are chosen as if they were chosen by the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee. Poll rankings are not a factor.

Site, Site, everywhere a Site

Some teams cannot play at certain sites as they are hosting. They are:
Early Rounds
Canisius College and Niagara University(Buffalo)
Jacksonville University(Jacksonville)
Marquette University(Milwaukee)
Tulane University(New Orleans)
Providence College(Providence)
San Jose State(San Jose)
Washington State(Spokane)
Regionals
University of Houston(Houston)
Syracuse University(Syracuse)
University of Utah(Salt Lake City)

Teams from the Big 12 can play in Oklahoma City, teams from the Missouri Valley can play in St. Louis(So could Saint Louis University) and Gonzaga University can play in Spokane(if they're seeded high enough to do so).

Timing

Expect most of my projections to be published by 2 PM early on, then by Noon from February onward.

Now that you are aware of my methodology, I'll be back next Monday to release the 1st bracket of the season.

I'm just posting this

To see if it will show up.

Analyzing the World Cup draw

1st, for those not amongst the 200 million in the TV audience, here are the groupings:

Group A
South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France
Group B
Argentina, Nigeria, Korea Republic, Greece
Group C
England, United States, Algeria, Slovenia
Group D
Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana
Group E
The Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
Group F
Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
Group G
Brazil, Korea DPR, Cote D'Ivoire, Portugal
Group H
Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile

Group A:
OUCH! A tough group for the South Africans if they want to advance to the knock out stage, with only Uruguay being seen as a (relatively) weak squad. Mexico and France should fight it out for the group win, especially as they meet June 11th.

Group B:
Probably the softest group in the whole tournament, Argentina should have very little trouble winning.

Group C:
For Team USA, it's a very good group to be placed in, with the weakest African squad and the weakest European squad in the field. Only England could pose problems, but most experts agree that they're the weakest of the top seeds(outside of South Africa, rated 86th in the world by FIFA).

Group D:
This is a relatively balanced group with Germany looking like the favorite 6 months out. Australia, Ghana and Serbia will more that likely fight it out for 2nd.

Group E:
In terms of toughness, I believe this group will be the toughest to predict. All four teams could win it, or finish last. But it should go to the Netherlands, with Denmark, Cameroon and Japan close behind.

Group F:
Italy, the current holders, will have their toughest match against Paraguay right off the bat. Handling New Zealand and Slovakia should be a breeze for the Forza Azzuri.

Group G:
This is no group of death, it's the Group of Ultimate Death. For Brazil, one of the favorites, if not the favorite, it will be a difficult task to get out of group play, what with the strongest Pot 3 squad(Cote D'Ivoire) and one of the strongest Pot 4 squads(Portugal) in this group. One thing is for certain, Korea DPR is a 3 and done team. In fact, they may not be able to score any goals.

Group H:
In contrast to the Brazilians, the other major favorite, Spain, has a benign group to conquer. The fly in the ointment could be Honduras, who gave the USA a tough fight during their 2 CONCACF qualifiers.

Potology-The FIFA World Cup Draw projections

Yep, I had to do it. I just HAD to do a post on soccer. And the contents of that post, you ask? Well, it's an invitation to draw up projected groups for next year's FIFA World Cup. 1st off. here are the pots as drawn up by FIFA:

Pot A(Host country, plus top 7 seeds)
South Africa, Italy, Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain

Pot B(Asia, North America and Oceania)
Australia, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korean Republic, Mexico, New Zealand, United States

Pot C(Africa and South America)
Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

Pot D(Europe)
Denmark, France, Greece, Portugal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland

Noting the restrictions in place, I came up with this draw:

UPDATE(12:03 PM CT): This is the revised version, to comply with FIFA rules.

Group A
South Africa, New Zealand, Uruguay, Portugal
Group B
Brazil, Algeria, Korean Republic, Slovenia
Group C
Italy, Cote D'Ivoire, Slovakia, Australia
Group D
The Netherlands, Denmark, Cameroon, Korea DPR
Group E
Argentina, Japan, France, Nigeria
Group F
Germany, Chile, United States, Serbia
Group G
Spain, Switzerland, Mexico, Paraguay
Group H
England, Ghana, Honduras, Greece

If you want to make your own draw, please do so in the comments section of this post. Your entry must be submitted by Noon ET on Friday to count.

Note the following restrictions that are in place for group play:
South Africa will play in Group A and will not face an African team. Argentina and Brazil will not face a South American team.

Yeah, I'm bored

So I'm going to ask you a question. Who's the best conference thus far.

This season's schedule

I hate to be a huckstering type, but if I were....

Ladies and Gentlemen(including those attending Centenary College), I here by present this year's bracket schedule!

Bracket Watch projections will start on January 4th and will be available every by around 2 pm every Monday. Friday projections will be availabe starting February 12th. And during the last week of the season, I'll be doing daily updates until Sunday, when my last bracket will be released around 3 PM CT(the only exception of course will be Saturday the 13th. High school hockey takes precedence over bracketology. You don't believe me, look at my location off to the right.)

The Audacity of Screw

KMSP has indeed switched from Cardinals-Bears to Packers-Buccaneers. Fucking bastards.

CONTROVERSY! Realigning college hoops through tradition

A few weeks ago, while trying to find something completely unrelated, I found an interesting release on ESPN's Media site, the upcoming release of the ESPN College Basketball Encyclopedia($49.95 at bookstores everywhere). Contained in it is an exclusive all-time ranking of teams that Jeff Sagarin compiled. Printing up the rankings, the devious realignment man in me thought....How can I realign all these teams into neater leagues of similar strength?

It took a day or two to finalize it, but now I present to you, The Great College Basketball Hierarchy. It consists of three parts:

The Aristocracy: The 100 greatest college basketball programs, containing most of the current elite.

The Middle Class: The next 100, mostly coming from the current middle tier of conferences.

The Proletariat: The lowest 130 along with 16 teams transitioning to Division I(Winston-Salem State is excluded since they have announced they will return to Division II).

The common theme of all these conferences is they have 10 teams each(some conferences in The Proletariat have 11), they're confined to a certain geographic area and consist of teams of roughly the same historical strength. Most conferences had to be broken up in order for the conferences to make sense(the exceptions are the MEAC and the SWAC). All conferences are presented from west to east.

Warning: This is not intended to be a serious attempt at realigning all 32 current Division I conferences, it is just the product of my imagination.


The Aristocracy

Pacific-10:
California, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, San Francisco, Santa Clara, Southern California, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
This Aristocracy conference is the closest to it's real life creation, only Arizona and Arizona State were removed(due to geographic considerations). In place of the Arizona schools are two additional teams from the San Francisco Bay Area.

Western Athletic:
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Colorado, Nevada-Las Vegas, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah, Utah State, Wyoming
Why are the Longhorns here with this Mountain West-like league rather than with Oklahoma and Texas A&M? Well for one, Texas A&M's historical underperformance put it the Middle Class and two, it's the closest Aristocracy school to Lubbock, who if one more western school would've made it would've been the outlier in this conference.

South Central:
Alabama, Arkansas, Houston, Louisiana State, Memphis, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Southern Methodist, Tulsa
Given the option of Alabama and UAB for the 10th spot in this melding of the SEC West(the good teams) and Conference USA's best, I would've prefered the Blazers so that the Crimson Tide could be connected to Auburn. But that would be a violation of the geography rule I followed.

Heartland:
Creighton, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Saint Louis, Wichita State
The North Division of the Big 12(sans Colorado) joins with two ex-Big Ten teams, two-ex Missouri Valley teams and Saint Louis(A-10 outlier) in a very centralized grouping. The strongest conference out there by combined ESPN/Sagarin rankings.

Great Lakes:
Bradley, Butler, DePaul, Illinois, Loyola of Chicago, Marquette, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Southern Illinois, Wisconsin
Spread into only 3 states, this has a high concentration of private schools(particularly Catholic ones). Fast rising Butler was one of the teams close to the diving line between The Aristocracy and the Middle Class.

Big Ten:
Bowling Green, Dayton, Indiana, Miami University, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio, Ohio State, Purdue, Toledo
This league contains most of the heated Big Ten rivalries along with a few underrated Mid-American rivals plus Dayton. For geographic reasons, neither Cincinnati nor Xavier are in the league.

Ohio Valley:
UAB, Auburn, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Louisville, Murray State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, Xavier
At last.....the 1948 conference.....with a modern day extension into Alabama. All ten teams here fit into neat little pairs of 2, which should be perfect for traveliing purposes. UAB has best Sagarin rating for schools with less than 50 years of basketball.

Atlantic Coast:
Duke, Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest, West Virginia
Not only are the Tobacco Road rivalries retained, but Florida joins in to make this conference the strongest in terms of the most recent decade. South Carolina is also here(having left in 1971), but I think the TR denziens would not be too thrilled to have them back.

Capitol:
Duquesne, George Washington, Georgetown, La Salle, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh, St. Joseph's, Temple, Villanova
The name of conference may mean that this league is centered on Washington, but Philadelphia is it's true epicenter. All five members of the Philadelphia Big 5(save Drexel, but the Dragons have only been involved in the series for a few years) are included.

Big East:
Boston College, Connecticut, Holy Cross, Penn State, Princeton, Providence, St. Bonaventure, St. John's, Seton Hall, Syracuse
Northeast-oriented, most of the historic Big East is here, with a few oddballs such as Princeton and Holy Cross(the last team in the top 100) thrown in. The lowest rated conference in the Aristocracy.


The Middle Class

California:
UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, Cal State Fullerton, Fresno State, Hawai'i, Long Beach State, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, San Diego, San Diego
A southern California-oriented league comprised of most of the current Big West(with a few West Coast and Western Athletic teams and San Diego State thrown in).

Northern Pacific:
Boise State, Gonzaga, Idaho, Idaho State, Nevada, Pacific, Portland, Portland State, St. Mary's, San Jose State
WHAT?!?!?? Gonzaga in the Middle Class? Well if performance was measured only from about 1998, not 1938, the Bulldogs would easily be in the Aristocracy, but they still have a lot to do to erase the all those years as Big Sky and West Coast doormats.

Big West:
Air Force, Colorado State, Denver, Montana, Montana State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, UTEP, Texas Christian, Weber State
Again, a geographical need, plus congestion in the next confernence resulted in a far out move into Texas for a 10th member(TCU). UTEP is the only former national champion(excluding CCNY, now in Division III) not in the Aristocracy. Very strong league for this particular level.

Gulf Star:
Baylor, Lamar, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, McNeese State, New Orleans, North Texas, RIce, Texas A&M, Tulane
Teams from 5 current conferences join in a conference named for a former D-I league(1984-87, strangely none of those 6 who were in that configuration are here). Texas A&M is one of a few teams here who could be in the Aristocracy if only more recent seasons were used.

Missouri Valley:
Arkansas State, Drake, Eastern Illinois, Green Bay, Illinois State, Missouri State, Northern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Oral Roberts, SE Missouri State
OK, it may be disheartening for Valley fans to see their league downgraded to Middle Class status, but in truth, 4 teams in the current league do qualify for Aristocracy status and because of geographic constraints, the Indiana schools had to move out. The result: 6 new teams, all of whom get an upgade from their current situations(Oral Roberts in particular).

Mid-American:
Akron, Ball State, Central Michigan, Detroit, Evansville, Indiana State, Kent State, Valparaiso, Western Michigan, Wright State
Five MAC holdovers get additions from the Horizon and Missouri Valley creating a poor man's version of the Big Ten. The membership-by-state breakdown is more hoosier-oriented(4 from Ohio, 4 from Indiana, 2 Michigan(compared to 6-2-2)).

Southeastern:
Clemson, Georgia, Jacksonville, University of Miami, Mississippi, South Alabama, South Florida, Southern Mississippi, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech
This is a motley collection of football-first schools and Sun Belt currents and alumni. Spicing up this league is Tennessee State, the only HBCU that is not in a Proletariat league.

Colonial:
Charlotte, Davidson, East Tennessee State, Eastern Kentucky, Marshall, Morehead State, Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth, Virginia Tech, William & Mary
Davidson and Virginia Tech could make a case for Aristocracy status in a few years. Otherwise, it's the CAA without a Northern and Southern extreme and an extension into Kentucky and West Virginia.

Central Coast:
Army, Canisius, Cornell, Lafayette, Navy, Niagara, Richmond, Rutgers, St. Francis(PA), St. Peter's
Army-Navy is fully retained, only because the Knights could not get the next conference because of geographical congestion. The same thing can also be said of Richmond, but due to burning bridges with their old CAA cohorts a few years back, did not get back in this realignment. Weakest Middle Class conference.

Northern Atlantic:
Columbia, Fairfield, Fordham, Hofstra, Iona, Long Island, Manhattan, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Yale
I briefly considered reusing the old Metropolitan Conference moniker for this New York-oriented loop, but the presence of 2 Atlantic 10 teams from New England prevented that outcome.


The Proletariat

Great West:
UC Davis, UC Riverside, Cal Poly, Cal State Bakersfield, Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, Northridge State, Sacramento State, Seattle, Southern Utah, Utah Valley
THIS is how to properly do a "Great West" Conference. If Seattle(transitioning to Division I) had remained at the top level, they would have been in the Middle Class.

Southland:
Centenary, Houston Baptist, Louisiana-Monroe, Northwestern State, Sam Houston State, Stephen F. Austin, Texas-Arlington, Texas-Pan American, Texas-San Antonio, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Texas State
The Ladies and Gentlemen are temporarily here before they drop down to Division III. Rated the strongest conference in the proletariat.

Southwestern Athletic:
Alabama A&M, Alabama State, Alcorn State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling, Jackson State, Mississippi Valley State, Prairie View A&M, Southern, Texas Southern
The only conference that is totally intact(but Jackson State and Alcorn State just missed Middle Class status). Surprisingly, despite recent struggles, it's the 2nd strongest Proletariat conference.

North Central:
Chicago State, Illinois-Chicago, Milwaukee, Missouri-Kansas City, North Dakota, North Dakota State, Northern Colorado, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Southern Illinois-Edwardsville, Western Illinois
Historic conference is restored with 5 former members and 6 new ones.

Horizon:
Binghamton, Buffalo, Cleveland State, Colgate, Eastern Michigan, IPFW, IUPUI, Oakland, Robert Morris, Youngstown State
Had to reach into Central New York State to fill out this group(Which is more of a reflection of the fact that the Great Lakes region is disproportionately filled by Aristocracy and Middle Class teams).

Gulf South:
Arkansas-Little Rock, Austin Peay, Belmont, Central Arkansas, Lipscomb, Middle Tennessee, Nicholls State, Samford, Southeastern Louisiana, Tennessee-Martin
Mix of Atlantic Sun, Sun Belt, Southland, Southern and Ohio Valley teams. Some members have been members of the actual Gulf South.

Sunshine:
Bethune-Cookman, Central Florida, Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Florida Gulf Coast, Florida International, Georgia Southern, North Florida, Stetson, Troy
5 of these schools didn't exist in 1969. BCC and FAMU are the only HBCU teams(other than Tennessee State) that aren't in an HBCU conference(and that was only because of congestion).

Southern States:
College of Charleston, Charleston Southern, Chattanooga, The Citadel, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, Mercer, Presbyterian, Western Carolina
5-state conference resembles an Atlantic Sun-Big South-Southern mish-mash. By far the weakest conference.

Carolina Intercollegiate:
Appalachian State, Elon, Furman, Gardner-Webb, High Point, UNC Asheville, UNC Greensboro, USC Upstate, Winthrop, Wofford
A more regionalized Southern Conference.

Mid-Eastern Athletic:
Coppin State, Delaware State, Hampton, Howard, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Morgan State, Norfolk State, North Carolina A&T, North Carolina Central, Savannah State, South Carolina State
Mostly intact, except the Florida schools are elsewhere and Savannah State is added.

Explorers:
American, Campbell, East Carolina, George Mason, James Madison, Liberty, Longwood, Mount St. Mary's, UNC Wilmington, Radford, Virginia Military
The most unique "new" conference name for a bunch of teams who've underachieved(GMU's 2006 Final Four run notwithstanding).

East Coast:
Bucknell, Delaware, Drexel, Lehigh, Loyola(MD), Maryland-Baltimore County, Monmouth, New Jersey Tech, Rider, Towson
Hey! Didn't all these teams belong to the "OLD" East Coast Conference? No.

Empire Nutmeg:
Albany, Central Connecticut State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Marist, Quinnipiac, Sacred Heart, St. Francis(NY), Siena, Stony Brook, Wagner
Heavily concentrated to Eastern New York and Connecticut(Hence the name Empire Nutmeg).

New England:
Boston University, Brown, Bryant, Dartmouth, Hartford, Harvard, Maine, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Vermont
It pains me to include Harvard and Proletariat in the same sentence. Oh, wait. I just did!

If you like this, or think I've lost my tiny little noodle, feel free to comment.

OT: Stop creeping Packer totalitarianism

This Sunday, one of the greatest of injustices in Twin Cities television history could be delivered. Initially, the Fox was going to air the Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Bears on it's Twin Cities O&O, KMSP. However, evidence has shown up that has KMSP airing the battle of the Bay of Pigs(Green Bay Packers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Click on the title above this post and get your voice across that, since the Minnesota Vikings have already swept the Packers and the Bucs are headed for the 2nd 0-16 season in NFL history, Minnesotans deserve a more meaningful game.

Watch this blog in the coming days

I've got something that's a little controversial up my sleeve. One hint: It's not a preseason bracket(I don't do those anymore, I just wait for the season to hit January and then, it's projection time!)

Examining the 2011-13 sites

Three years worth of sites, three looks of how the NCAA did.

2011

Three new venues(and one new city) highlight the road to Houston for 2011. Both Cleveland and Tulsa are back in the rota, but with new arenas hosting(Quicken Loans Arena; BOK Center). The Prudential Center brings the NCAA's back to New Jersey for the first time since 2007 and brings it to Newark for the 1st time. It's also the only Northeast site this particular year(Unless you count Washington, D.C. as northeastern). The major shock is the return of Tucson into the rota. A few years ago, the NCAA deemed McKale Center too small(in terms of square footage). In fact, the media center had to be shoehorned into the weight room. I'm not sure what happened, but it appears the University of Arizona was able to expand to meet NCAA needs. Also, there is no Midwest or South regionals(these have been replaced by the Southeast and Southwest.

2012

Louisville and Pittsburgh rejoin the rota this year with two new venues, both of which are an upgrade over what they had previously had. Louisville's last NCAA tourney game was in 1991 at Freedom Hall, located at the Kentucky Expo grounds. Pittsburgh will host at Consol Energy Center, a stones throw away from the Igloo, where there have been two years of preliminary games. The Phoenix area venue for this year is the US Airways Center, a more centrally located venue than University of Phoenix Stadium which was a losing candidate for a Final Four. St. Louis hosts at the Edward Jones Dome, which won't be available for any games for a few years after it hosts the Midwest Regional, due to an upcoming renovation in 2014.

2013

With this being the diamond tournament, the NCAA opted for history, rather than new venues. Indeed, among the areas that are hosting in 2013(Including Atlanta), only Austin and Dayton have not had a Final Four in their areas. Consider the sites chosen(and the Final Fours in the areas of said sites):
Arlington, TX(1986 in Dallas at Reunion Arena, plus 2014 at Cowboys Stadium)
Auburn Hills, MI(2009 in Detroit at Ford Field)
Indianapolis(1980 at Market Square Arena, 1991, 97, 2000, and 06 at RCA Dome and 2010 and 15 at Lucas Oil Stadium)
Kansas City(1940-42, 53-55, 57, 61, 64 at Municipal Auditorium, 1988 at Kemper Arena)
Lexington, KY(1985 at this year's site, Rupp Arena)
Los Angeles(1968 and 72 at the Sports Arena)
Philadelphia(1976 and 81 at the old Spectrum, plus the classic 1992 East Regional final)
Salt Lake City(1979 at the Huntsman Center)
San Jose(1960 in San Francisco at the Cow Palace)

One site is still unknown. It is believed that the venue in question is Madison Square Garden in New York(would likely be hosted by St. John's University and the Big East), but some unknown factors have forced the NCAA to delay the announcement. It's unknown who would replace MSG if it cannot host.

Missing in Action
Two cities that bid for the Final Four in the most recent cycle(2012-16) did not get preliminary round games for 2011-13; Detroit and Minneapolis. There will be games in the Detroit area in 2013 at the Palace of Auburn Hills, though Detroit(or more specifically Ford Field) will likely be a host of early round action in the next cycle. Minneapolis-St. Paul however is a murkier picture. The likely site for early round games, the Metrodome, faces an uncertain future as it's possible it may be redeveloped for the Minnesota Vikings(which itself is uncertain). If the dome can't be used, or is replaced by an outdoor stadium, the other two options out there may be unavailable due to commitments to other events(Target Center due to state high school basketball, Xcel Energy Center due to the potential of the WCHA Final Five remaining there for the foreseable future on the 1st weekend of the NCAA's(although the X may be able to host regionals)).

Also not hosting this go-around are:
Albany, Birmingham, Boise, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Des Moines, Fresno, Grand Rapids, Hartford, Jacksonville, Knoxville, Little Rock, Memphis, Miami, Oakland, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Providence, Raleigh, Wichita, Winston-Salem, Worcester(there are definitely others I may have missed.

Stay tuned for my women's picks, sometime next month.

The sites are in for 2011-13

The NCAA today has awarded preliminary round hosting duties for 2011, '12 and '13. I'll detail the selections in an upcoming series of posts, but here is the nitty gritty details for all three years.

2011-13 Opening Round
Dayton, OH
UD Arena
University of Dayton

2011
1st/2nd Rounds: 3/17-19
Denver
Pepsi Center
Mountain West Conference

Tampa
St. Pete Times Forum
University of South Florida

Tucson, AZ
McKale Center
University of Arizona

Washington, D.C.
Verizon Center
Georgetown University

1st/2nd Rounds: 3-18/20
Charlotte
Time Warner Cable Arena
University of North Carolina, Charlotte

Chicago
United Center
Big Ten Conference

Cleveland
Quicken Loans Arena(New Venue)
Cleveland State University

Tulsa
BOK Center(New Venue)
University of Tulsa

East Regional: 3-25/27
Newark, NJ
Prudential Center(New Venue)
Seton Hall University

Southeast Regional: 3-24/26
New Orleans
Louisiana Superdome
Tulane University

Southwest Regional: 3-25/27
San Antonio
Alamodome
University of Texas, San Antonio

West Regional: 3/24-26
Anaheim, CA
Honda Center
Big West Conference


2012

1st/2nd Rounds: 3-15/17
Albuquerque
The Pit
University of New Mexico

Louisville
Waterfront Arena(New Venue)
University of Louisville

Pittsburgh
Consol Energy Center(New Venue)
Duquesne University

Portland, OR
Rose Garden Arena
University of Oregon

1st/2nd Rounds: 3-16/18
Columbus, OH
Nationwide Arena
Ohio State University

Greensboro, NC
Greensboro Coliseum
Atlantic Coast Conference

Nashville
Sommet Center
Ohio Valley Conference

Omaha, NE
Qwest Center
Creighton University

East Regional: 3-22/24
Boston
TD Garden
Boston College

West Regional: 3-22/24
Phoenix
US Airways Center
Arizona State University

Midwest Regional: 3-23/25
St. Louis
Edward Jones Dome
Saint Louis University

South Regional: 3-23/25
Atlanta
Georgia Dome
Georgia Institute of Technology

2013

1st/2nd Rounds: 3-21/23
Auburn Hills, MI
Palace of Auburn Hills
Oakland University

Lexington, KY
Rupp Arena
University of Kentucky

Salt Lake City, UT
Energy Solutions Arena
University of Utah

San Jose
HP Pavillion
West Coast Conference

1st/2nd Rounds: 3-22/24
Austin, TX
Frank Erwin Center
University of Texas at Austin

Dayton, OH
UD Arena
University of Dayton

Kansas City, MO
Sprint Center
Host TBA

Philadelphia
Wachovia Center
Temple University

East Regional: 3-28/30
Unknown

West Regional: 3-28/30
Los Angeles
Staples Center(New Venue)
Pepperdine University

Midwest Region: 3-29/31
Indianapolis
Lucas Oil Stadium
Butler University, Indiana University/Purdue University at Indianapolis, Horizon League

South Region: 3-29/31
Arlington, TX
Cowboys Stadium(New City and Venue)
Big 12 Conference

Projecting the Sites - Men's Tournament

A few years ago, on an earlier incarnation of this blog, I made predictions on what the NCAA would pick for sites to the men's and women's basketball. Reviewing those selections a few days ago, my record was mixed. I hit some, but missed badly on others. With the sites for the 2011-13 tourneys to be awarded by the end of the month, I feel it's time to put on my best prognostication cap and see what I come up with. Not all combinations will be chosen(in fact some of the picks are just outright guesses, some may have elected to stay out of the bidding process entirely).

2011-13 Opening Round site:
Dayton, OH
University of Dayton Arena
University of Dayton

2011
1st/2nd Rounds
3-17/19
Albuquerque, NM The Pit University of New Mexico
Des Moines, IA Wells Fargo Arena Iowa State University
Hartford, CT XL Center University of Connecticut/Big East Conference
Oakland Oracle Arena University of San Francisco
3-18/20
Cleveland Quicken Loans Arena Kent State University
Little Rock, AR Alltel Arena University of Arkansas, Little Rock
Nashville Sommet Center Ohio Valley Conferernce
Philadelphia Wachovia Center LaSalle University
Regionals
3-24/26
Los Angeles Staples Center University of Southern California/Pacific-10 Conference
Raleigh RBC Center North Carolina State University
3-25/27
Chicago United Center Big Ten Conference
New Orleans Louisiana Superdome Tulane University

2012
1st/2nd Rounds
3-15/17
Fresno, CA SaveMart Center Fresno State University
Louisville Waterfront Arena University of Louisville
Orlando Amway Center Stetson University
Salt Lake City Huntsman Events Center University of Utah
3-16/18
Albany, NY Times-Union Arena Siena College/Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Indianapolis Lucas Oil Stadium Butler University/IUPUI/Horizon League
San Antonio AT&T Center University of Texas, San Antonio
Tulsa, OK BOK Center University of Tulsa/Conference USA
Regionals
3-22/24
Atlanta Georgia Dome Georgia Institute of Technology
Glendale, AZ University of Phoenix Stadium Arizona State University
3-23/25
New York City Madison Square Garden St. John's University/Big East Conference
St. Louis Edward Jones Dome Missouri Valley Conference


2013
1st/2nd Rounds
3-21/23
Boise, ID Taco Bell Arena Boise State University
Charlottesville, VA John Paul Jones University of Virginia
Denver Pepsi Center Colorado State University/Mountain West Conference
Pittsburgh Consol Energy Center Duquesne University
3-22/24
Detroit Ford Field Mid-American Conference
Memphis FedExForum University of Memphis
Miami AmericanAirlinesArena Florida International University
Omaha, NE Qwest Center Omaha Creighton University/Missouri Valley Conference
Regionals
3-28/30
Portland, OR Rose Garden University of Oregon
Washington, DC Verizon Center Georgetown University
3-29/31
Arlington, TX Cowboys Stadium Big 12 Conference
St. Paul, MN Xcel Energy Center University of Minnesota, Twin Cities


I'll have my women's choices up sometime this week as though will be awarded in November.

The last 12 games don't matter....

....as much as the 1st 20. That's the determination of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee after meetings earlier this month.

More on this from The NCAA News(click above).

Potential NCAA Tournament Venues: 2011-13(Updated 8-20)

Here's a list of cities that are bidding to host NCAA 1st/2nd round and/or regionals from 2011 to 2013(This list will be updated throughout the months ahead). The NCAA will announce the venues in September, during the Championships/Sports Management Cabinet meeting. The venues themselves will be chosen by the Division I Men's Basketball Committee. According to this article in the Birmingham News today: http://www.al.com/sec/birminghamnews/index.ssf?/base/sports/1244708141315750.xml&coll=2 , 60 cities have put in bids to the NCAA.

City(Prospective Host and Venue)
Albuquerque, NM(University of New Mexico; University Arena)
Arlington, TX(Big 12 Conference; Cowboys Stadium)*
Atlanta(Georgia Institute of Technology; Georgia Dome)*
Austin, TX(University of Texas at Austin; Erwin Events Center)
Birmingham, AL(Southeastern Conference; BJCC Arena)
East Rutherford, NJ(Rutgers University; Izod Center)
Grand Rapids, MI(Western Michigan University; Van Andel Arena)
Jacksonville, FL(Jacksonville University; Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Coliseum)
Knoxville, TN(University of Tennessee, Knoxville; Thompson-Bolling Arena)
Lexington, KY(University of Kentucky; Rupp Arena)
Little Rock, AR(University of Arkansas, Little Rock; Verizon Arena)
Louisville, KY(University of Louisville; Riverfront Arena)
Memphis(University of Memphis; FedEx Forum)
Newark, NJ(Seton Hall University; Prudential Center)
New Orleans(Tulane University; Louisiana Superdome)*
New York City(Big East Conference and St. John's University(NY); Madison Square Garden
Orlando(University of Central Florida or Stetson University; New Orlando Arena)
Tampa(University of South Florida; St. Pete Times Forum)
Wichita, KS(Wichita State University; InTrust Bank Center)

*Denotes the city will be guaranteed a regional in this cycle, owing to their status as a Final Four host.

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Predicting the NCAA's

Sweet 16 picks
Midwest: Ohio State, Wake Forest, Kansas, Michigan State
West: Connecticut, Washington, Missouri, Memphis
East: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Villanova, Duke
South: North Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Oklahoma

National Semis
Memphis over Wake Forest
Pittsburgh over Oklahoma

National Championship
Pittsburgh 79, Memphis 71

Field review

#1 Seeds
I went with my gut putting Memphis on the top line, thinking Connecticut would be penalized by being in the same conference of two #1 seeds(Louisville and Pittsburgh). Mike Slive and his committee felt differently and rewarded the Huskies with the last #1 seed, which I have no problem with(The Huskies were my top #2 seed). In terms of the overall #1, I had North Carolina even after losing to Florida State, but again I have no qualms about Louisville being the #1 of #1's, especially as I got the regions right.

The Last Teams In
Arizona was the only team I missed(having Creighton instead). Evidently, the committee overlooked a horrible road and rewarded the Wildcats, who have home and neutral wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, Washington and UCLA. The Bluejays should fault no one but themselves, especially after getting blown out by Illinois State in the Missouri Valley semis. Wisconsin was also a 12 seed, evidently punished by a six-game losing streak.

Big Ten
Wisconsin was one of THREE teams from the conference seeded tenth or below(Michigan and Minnesota were the others). Michigan State received a 2 seed, Illinois and Purdue(despite winning today) are 5 seeds. Ohio State may have an easy 2nd round game vs. Louisville in Dayton(if they can get by Siena, who probably would've gotten an at-large bid if needed).

Personal Stats
Teams Missed
Arizona(instead of Creighton)
Teams at exact seeds: 30
Teams plus/minus 1: 54
Biggest miss: Tennessee(3 seeds lower)

Most advantageous pod placements
Gonzaga and Washington in Portland.
Villanova in Philadelphia

Most disadvantageous pod placements
Kansas in Minneapolis(Playing North Dakota State in 1st round, possible 2nd round matchup with West Virginia)
Louisville in Dayton(Possible 2nd round game with Ohio State)
Arizona in Miami and UCLA in Philadelphia(3 time zones away)

The final Bracket Watch projection for the season

Ladies and Gentlemen, my final projection for the season(I'm not waiting for the Big Ten Final to finish).

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Louisiana State vs. 9-SIENA
@Minneapolis
4-Syracuse vs. 13-WESTERN KENTUCKY
5-PURDUE vs. 12-CLEVELAND STATE
@Kansas City
2-MISSOURI vs. 15-STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
7-Clemson vs. 10-Minnesota
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-CORNELL
6-UTAH vs. 11-Dayton

West region
@Kansas City
1-MEMPHIS vs. 16-NORTHRIDGE STATE
8-Marquette vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@Portland
4-Washington vs. 13-AKRON(silly me forgot to add it)
5-Illinois vs. 12-NORTH DAKOTA STATE
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-MORGAN STATE
7-Ohio State vs. 10-UTAH STATE
@Miami
3-Florida State vs. 14-BINGHAMTON
6-Tennessee vs. 11-Texas A&M

Midwest Region
@Dayton
1-LOUISVILLE vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Michigan vs. 9-Boston College
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-MISSISSIPPI STATE
5-Ucla vs. 12-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
@Minneapolis
2-Michigan State vs. 15-ROBERT MORRIS
7-Texas vs. 10-SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
6-West Virginia vs. 11-TEMPLE

East region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-ALABAMA STATE
8-Butler vs. 9-California
@Portland
4-GONZAGA vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Xavier vs. 12-Maryland
@Greensboro
2-DUKE vs. 15-AMERICAN
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Wisconsin
@Boise
3-Oklahoma vs. 14-PORTLAND STATE
6-Arizona State vs. 11-Creighton

Last four in the field: Wisconsin, Dayton(Not on Bubble), Creighton, Maryland
First four left out: St. Mary's, San Diego State, Penn State, Arizona
Also in consideration: Auburn, Virginia Tech, Providence, Tulsa, UNLV, Florida

Bracket Watch - Selection Sunday(1st edition)

Well folks, 126 days after the 1st tip of the season, we have reached the holiest of days on the collegiate basketball calendar, Selection Sunday. What will Mike Silve and his colleagues come up with at 6 Eastern(5 Central)? We don't know, but here is a first guess at what could happen:

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Louisiana State vs. 9-SIENA
@Minneapolis
4-Syracuse vs. 13-WESTERN KENTUCKY
5-Purdue/Big Ten vs. 12-CLEVELAND STATE
@Kansas City
2-MISSOURI vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Clemson vs. 10-Minnesota
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-CORNELL
6-UTAH vs. 11-Dayton

West region
@Kansas City
1-MEMPHIS vs. 16-NORTHRIDGE STATE
8-Marquette vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@Portland
4-Washington vs. 13-St. Mary's
5-Illinois vs. 12-NORTH DAKOTA STATE
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-MORGAN STATE
7-Ohio State vs. 10-UTAH STATE
@Miami
3-Florida State vs. 14-BINGHAMTON
6-Tennessee/Southeastern vs. 11-Texas A&M

Midwest Region
@Dayton
1-LOUISVILLE vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Michigan vs. 9-Boston College
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-AKRON
5-Ucla vs. 12-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
@Minneapolis
2-Michigan State vs. 15-ROBERT MORRIS
7-Texas vs. 10-SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
6-West Virginia vs. 11-TEMPLE

East region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-ALABAMA STATE
8-Butler vs. 9-California
@Portland
4-GONZAGA vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Xavier vs. 12-Maryland
@Greensboro
2-Duke/Atlantic Coast vs. 15-AMERICAN
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Wisconsin
@Boise
3-Oklahoma vs. 14-PORTLAND STATE
6-Arizona State vs. 11-Creighton

Last four in the field: Dayton(Not on Bubble), Creighton, Maryland, St. Mary's
First four left out: San Diego State, Penn State, Arizona, Auburn
Also in consideration: Virginia Tech, Providence, Tulsa, UNLV, Florida

Now what should happen if Mississippi State were to win the SEC today?Mississippi State would be the 13th seed in the Midwest, Akron would move to the 13th seed in the West and St. Mary's would be bumped out.

The last projection will be posted by 3 PM Central, and I hope to analyze the whole thing later tonight.

Saturday Canvas

Pretty much looks 5-6 bids are still available, but could shrink depending on who wins automatic bids. One spot was lost when Duquesne upset Dayton and Temple beat Xavier in Atlantic 10 semis. Baylor, Southern California, Tulsa, Auburn/Mississippi State and Nevada may still stun their way into the field. With that in mind here are the last 8 in and out in my mind:

Next four from the cutline up: Minnesota, Dayton, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
Last four in the field: Penn State, Creighton, San Diego State, Maryland
First four left out: St. Mary's, Auburn, Arizona, Temple(if they lose the Atlantic 10 final)
Next four left out: Utah State(if they lose the WAC final), Providence, New Mexico, Davidson

The top 4 seed lines(something I had promised to do in previous posts):

South region(1)
1 North Carolina
2 Connecticut
3 UCLA
4 Illinois
West region(4)
1 Michigan State
2 Memphis
3 Villanova
4 Kansas
Midwest region(2)
1 Pittsburgh
2 Missouri
3 Wake Forest
4 Louisiana State
East region(3)
1 Louisville
2 Duke
3 Oklahoma
4 Syracuse

On tap for Sunday, one bracket early, the last one after the early finals are done.

About Friday the 13th in BracketWatchLand

ACC
Close, but no pez for Virginia Tech as North Carolina(even without Ty Lawson) held on to win 79-76. The Hokies must still be in consideration, with road wins over Clemson and Wake Forest, but their lack of OOC heft will hurt. In the 2nd game, Florida State deny Georgia Tech a 2nd straight upset with a go-ahead score with 7 seconds left.

Big Ten
The only way Minnesota could find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble was if they were blown out by Michigan State. Whilst the Spartans did win, it was only 64-56, with the Gophers in it throughout the game. Ohio State, seen by some to be still on the bubble, firmed up their status by nipping Wisconsin 61-57.

SEC
LSU put Kentucky's bid hopes to permanent sleep, 64-58.

Bracket Watch - Friday

Unlike a lot of you, I did not see the last 4 overtimes that UConn and Syracuse played, but this much is true. The Huskies have little hope of a #1 seed right now. The loss opened up the door for Michigan State to move up to the top line. As for the rest of the bracket.....

Projections through Thursday night's games

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Minneapolis
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-WESTERN KENTUCKY
5-Texas vs. 12-Ohio State*
@Kansas City
2-Missouri/Big 12 vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Arizona State vs. 10-South Carolina*
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-ROBERT MORRIS
6-Purdue vs. 11-St. Mary's

West region
@Minneapolis
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Syracuse vs. 12-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
7-Clemson vs. 10-SIENA
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-Texas A&M*

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Boston College vs. 9-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTH DAKOTA STATE
5-GONZAGA vs. 12-Penn State*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Utah vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Kansas City
3-Oklahoma vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Creighton*

East region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Butler vs. 9-Michigan
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-San Diego State*
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-PORTLAND STATE
7-Marquette vs. 10-Dayton*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Illinois vs. 11-CLEVELAND STATE

Teams moved up for placement purposes: Cleveland State, St. Mary's, South Carolina
Teams moved down for placement purposes: Ohio State, Penn State, Texas A&M
New to the field: Creighton, San Diego State, St. Mary's

Last four in the field: Penn State, Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego State
First four left out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Arizona, Nevada-Las Vegas
Next four left out: Auburn, New Mexico, Maryland, Davidson
Also on board: Duquesne, Rhode Island, Temple, Providence, Baylor, Kansas State, Tulsa, Illinois State, Southern California, Kentucky

As I have said recently, there will be no formal projection tomorrow as I will be attending the Minnesota State High School Boy's Hockey Championships. There will be a projection of the top 4 seed lines instead.

About Thursday

By conference so I can keep things in order(updated as of 9:23 PM CT):

Atlantic Coast
We can boot Miami(FL) from all bubble discussion after Virginia Tech dropped the Ibis 65-47. Clemson's seed will drop after letting Georgia Tech win 86-81. That note that said Maryland was playing itself out? Skip that, the Terps toppled NC State.

Big East
Providence is really hurting now, as the Friars lose to Louisville 73-55. Villanova almost let a 16-point lead slip away into the clutches of Marquette, but they escape in the final moments with a 1-point win. Pittsburgh's chances of gaining a #1 seed were hurt significantlly by losing to West Virginia.

Big Ten
Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State all took care of bidness in the 1st round in Indy. Of the three, the Gophers had the toughest test, pulling away from Northwestern in the final 3 minutes.

Big 12
Does anyone want to win this tourney? Kansas fell to Baylor, who now must be let back onto the fringe, whilst hurting the Jayhawks' top line hopes and Oklahoma let Oklahoma State escape with a win, ending the Sooners #1 quest. Meanwhile, Kansas State drops off after losing to Texas.

Conference USA
Memphis had trouble putting away Tulane, winning only by 10 points. UAB had to go to overtime to defeat Southern Miss. Tulsa had no such problem in their dispatching of Rice.

Mountain West
Brigham Young had it's hands full trying to eliminate Air Force, winning only by 11. San Diego State ran UNLV out of the tourney on the Rebels' home court. As of this update, Utah is losing to Texas Christian.

Pacific-10
Arizona State may have just ended Arizona's long streak of tourney appearances, winning by 12. Washington pulled away from Stanford late. California was trailing Southern California by 15, but have since rallied to trail by 5.

Southeastern
Kentucky's win did nothing to improve their standing. They must beat LSU tomorrow to have any chance. Same for Mississippi State. The real action takes place tomorrow.

Western Athletic
Utah State cruises to a win over hapless Fresno State.

Bracket Watch - Thursday

Unlike the last two brackets this week, this one is totally new and updated through Ben Hanowski Night(Wednesday). There are plenty of big bubble battles today, which will definitely impact the bracket tomorrow.

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Ohio State*
@Boise
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Syracuse vs. 12-WESTERN KENTUCKY
@Kansas City
2-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Arizona State vs. 10-SIENA
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-ROBERT MORRIS
6-Purdue vs. 11-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

West region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-California vs. 9-Butler
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Minneapolis
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Marquette vs. 10-Boston College*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-Texas vs. 11-Penn State*

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Michigan*
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTH DAKOTA STATE
5-GONZAGA vs. 12-New Mexico*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-CORNELL
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Boise
3-Oklahoma vs. 14-PORTLAND STATE
6-Utah vs. 11-South Carolina*

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Minneapolis
4-Missouri vs. 13-CLEVELAND STATE
5-Clemson vs. 12-Arizona*
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 10-Dayton*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
6-Illinois vs. 11-Texas A&M*

Last four in the field: South Carolina, Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico, Arizona
First four left out: Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Miami(FL)
Next four left out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Providence, Kansas State
Also on board: Maryland, Rhode Island, Temple, Northwestern, Tulsa, UAB, Auburn, Davidson

Next projection: Friday

Bracket Watch - Wednesday

Another day, another burst bubble. This time it's Creighton's(again).

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Utah vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Boise
4-Marquette vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Penn State*
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Illinois vs. 10-Dayton*
@Minneapolis
3-Villanova vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Butler vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West Region
@Dayton
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-SIENA
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

Midwest region
@Philadelphia
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Boston College*
@Boise
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Utah State/Western Athletic*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-RADFORD
7-West Virginia vs. 10-New Mexico*
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Purdue vs. 11-Arizona*

East region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Arizona State vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Portland
4-Missouri vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Clemson vs. 12-CLEVELAND STATE
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Portland State/Big Sky
7-Texas vs. 10-Michigan*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina*

New to the field: Cleveland State

Last four in the field: South Carolina, Penn State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Arizona
First four left out: Creighton, St. Mary's, Florida, Miami(FL)
Next four left out: Providence, Kansas State, Maryland, Auburn

Note-The following teams are not in the projection yet, but will be if they win their conference tourneys tonight(along with their projected seeds):
Mount St. Mary's(16)
Montana State(Opening Round)

The next projection will be on Thursday

Tuesday Night update

North Dakota State rallied from as much as 14 points down to beat Oakland 66-64 in the Summit League final in Sioux Falls, giving the Bison their first Big Dance invite in the first year they could receive one. Currently as I type, Cleveland State is leading Butler in the Horizon final(much to the horror of the bubble) and Western Kentucky is ahead of South Alabama in the Sun Belt final.

Earlier, Cincinnati and Georgetown had their remote chances of at-large consideration end in the first round of the Big East shindig. Notre Dame survived their encounter with Rutgers and will battle West Virginia tomorrow.

UPDATE: Someone's bubble has burst. Cleveland State held off Butler 56-54 for the Horizon League championship. That means when the next update comes tomorrow morning, Creighton will be on the outside looking in, again.

Bracket Watch - Tuesday

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Utah vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Boise
4-Butler/Horizon vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Marquette vs. 12-Penn State*
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Illinois vs. 10-Dayton*
@Minneapolis
3-Villanova vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West Region
@Dayton
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-SIENA
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/BIg Sky
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

Midwest region
@Philadelphia
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Boston College*
@Boise
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Utah State/Western Athletic*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-RADFORD
7-West Virginia vs. 10-New Mexico*
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Purdue vs. 11-Arizona*

East region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Arizona State vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Portland
4-Missouri vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Clemson vs. 12-Creighton*
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Texas vs. 10-Michigan*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina*

New to the field: Creighton, Chattanoogs

Last four in the field: Penn State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Arizona, Creighton
First four left out: St. Mary's, Florida, Miami(FL), Providence
Next four left out: Kansas State, Maryland, Auburn, Tulsa

Note-The following teams are not in the projection yet, but will be if they win their conference tourneys tonight(along with their projected seeds):
Cleveland State(12-14)
Oakland(15-16)
South Alabama(14-16)

The next projection will be on Wednesday.

Monday Night Update

Gonzaga just crushed St. Mary's 83-58 in the West Coast final. The loss put the Gaels in the same boat as Creighton in which they had a very bad loss right before the tournament. As of right now, the Bluejays are slightly ahead of the Gaels in the pecking order and will move back into the field tomorrow morning.

Also, VCU(Colonial) and Chattanooga(Southern) have claimed their conference's auto bids. The Mocs are 18-16 and more than likely headed straight for the opening round game(or as Kyle Wheliston calls it the Notorious P.I.G(The name no doubt stolen from the St. Paul Saints, who once had a live pig mascot named Notorious P.I.G(A.K.A Piggy Smalls))).) North Dakota State has won their Summit League semifinal over Southern Utah and Western Kentucky will play for the Sun Belt title, having disposed of North Texas.

Bracket Watch - And so the countdown begins

We're now less than a week before Mike Silve and the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee will bear the piece of art known as the bracket, and teams around the country are gearing up for a intense week of games to determine the canvas. Some are rising to the challenge(Michigan, Auburn), others are faltering towards the brink(Minnesota, Dayton), others have lost the plot completely(Davidson, Cincinnati, Maryland).

What will the actual art look like? Now this is where bracketologists of all stripes come in. To examine and guess what really goes on inside the ten minds of the committee. How we do it varies widely(and wildly). Some, like myself, use the WWTCDN? method, examining the actual facts thus far. Others make predictions of what will happen. Some do both with various degrees of balance.

Now to the projections(through Sunday Night) with a few new twists:
1-Teams in the field are given the CAPS treatment.
2-Bubble teams are listed with asterisks* like so.

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Utah vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Boise
4-Butler/Horizon vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Marquette vs. 12-Penn State*
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Illinois vs. 10-Dayton*
@Minneapolis
3-Villanova vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West Region
@Dayton
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-College of Charleston/Southern
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic*
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/BIg Sky
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-St. Mary's*
Note: St. Mary's and Minnesota switched seeds for geographical purposes

Midwest region
@Philadelphia
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Boston College*
@Boise
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Utah State/Western Athletic*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-West Virginia vs. 10-New Mexico*
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Purdue vs. 11-Arizona*

East region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Arizona State vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Portland
4-Missouri vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Clemson vs. 12-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Texas vs. 10-Michigan*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina*

New to the field: East Tennessee State, Michigan. Morehead State, Arizona, College of Charleston

Last four in the field: Penn State, South Carolina, Nevada-Las Vegas, Arizona
First four left out: Creighton, Florida, San Diego State, Providence
Next four left out: Maryland, Kansas State, Auburn, Miami(FL)
Also on board: Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Northwestern, UAB, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Niagara, Illinois State, Southern California

Note-Here are the seed ranges for those teams not listed in the bracket but would be should they win tonight
George Mason: 13-14
Niagara: 12-13
Chattanooga: 16

Bracket Watch - Anyone out there?

Seriously, the bubble this year is exceptionally weak, more so than in the last few years. At this rate by next week, the bubble may consist of Denver, Liberty, Jacksonville State and a few Division II schools. I kid of course about these teams, but the truth is nobody on the bubble(with the exceptions of teams like Creighton, Penn State and Texas A&M) wants to be there. It's going to make a difficult week for bracketologists to forecast who will be in.

With all the big conferences wrapping up regular season play this weekend, Bracket Watch will go into daily mode starting Monday with a full projection followed by updates on Tuesday and Wednesday. Full Projections will then occur on Thursday and Friday with the final projections on Sunday(No Saturday projection as I will be attending the Minnesota State High School Hockey Tournament).

Now on to the newest field:

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. South(3)

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Radford/Big South
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Miami
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
5-Clemson vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Penn State
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-Miami(OH)/Mid-American
6-California vs. 11-Utah State/Western Athletic

West region
@Dayton
1-Louisville vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Texas vs. 9-Boston College
@Boise
4-Purdue vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-New Mexico
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference-USA vs. 15-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Oklahoma State
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/Big Sky
6-Utah/Mountain West vs. 11-Ohio State

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Minnesota vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Boise
4-Missouri vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Marquette vs. 12-Maryland
@Minneapolis
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Arizona State vs. 10-Dayton
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Illinois vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Davidson/Southern
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Butler/Horizon vs. 10-St. Mary's
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-Cornell/Ivy
6-Florida State vs. 11-Creighton

New to the field: Maryland, Penn State, Miami(OH), New Mexico

Last four in the field: South Carolina, Ohio State, Maryland, New Mexico
First four left out: Rhode Island, Michigan, Arizona, Providence
Next four left out: Miami(FL), Florida, Northwestern, Auburn
Also in consideration: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Washington State, Kentucky

Predicting The Conference Tournament Champions

These are just my guesses for the 31 automatic qualifiers, they're not reflective of the current standings:

America East: Binghamton
Atlantic Coast: North Carolina
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Atlantic 10: Dayton
Big East: Connecticut
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Virginia Military
Big Ten: Purdue
Big 12: Missouri
Big West: Pacific
Colonial: George Mason
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Buffalo
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Mountain West: New Mexico
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Pacific-10: UCLA
Patriot: American
Southeastern: South Carolina
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State
Sun Belt: Arkansas-Little Rock
West Coast: St. Mary's
Western Athletic: Utah State

Bracket Watch - Who wants in?

It's become increasingly crazy over the past few weeks as more teams are trying to play their way out as opposed to those trying to play their way in. This weekend alone, bubble teams like Cincinnati, Kentucky and Virginia Tech more or less played their way out of contention, Arizona and Ohio State came close to moving out and Maryland, Georgetown and Texas A&M made strong plays to try to get in the field.

How does it reflect on today's projection? Well here goes...

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. South(3)

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Dayton vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@Minneapolis
4-Purdue vs. 13-Bowling Green/Mid-American
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Arizona
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit
6-Butler/Horizon vs. 11-Creighton

West region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Syracuse vs. 9-Minnesota
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-Davidson/Southern
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-Miami(FL)
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Illinois vs. 10-South Carolina
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Clemson vs. 11-Utah State/Western Athletic

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Tennessee vs. 9-California
@Boise
4-Florida State vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Utah/Mountain West vs. 12-St. Mary's
@Dayton
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Cornell/Ivy
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Texas A&M
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Arizona State vs. 11-Providence

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Radford/Big South
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Boise
4-Missouri vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Marquette vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Miami
2-Louisville vs. 15-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
7-Texas vs. 10-Boston College
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/Big Sky
6-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 11-Ohio State

New to the field: Providence, Texas A&M, Northridge State, Bowling Green, Nevada-Las Vegas

Last four in the field(by seed list): Creighton, Miami(FL), St. Mary's, Providence
First four left out: Maryland, New Mexico, Penn State, Florida
Next four left out: Georgetown, Kentucky, Michigan, Virginia Tech
Also on the at-large board: Rhode Island, Temple, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Nebraska, Tulsa, San Diego State, Southern California, Auburn

Bracket Watch - TGIBWF

Nothing really witty to say right now, except to say there is a new team to the top line today....you'll have to find out who it is.

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. South(3)

East Region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Radford/Big South
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@Portland
4-Utah/Mountain West vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Arizona State vs. 12-St. Mary's
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-Texas vs. 10-Tennessee
@Minneapolis
3-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 14-Akron/Mid-American
6-Xavier vs. 11-Creighton

West Region
@Kansas City
1-Memphis/Confernce USA vs. 16-Long Beach State/Big West
8-West Virginia vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Wake Forest vs. 13-Davidson/Southern
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Cincinnati
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Dayton
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-Cornell/Ivy League
6-Florida State vs. 11-Siena/Metro Atlantic

Midwest Region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-Boston College
@Portland
4-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Kentucky
@Boise
2-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Syracuse vs. 10-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Miami
3-Clemson vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Illinois vs. 11-Florida

South Region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
8-Arizona vs. 9-South Carolina
@Boise
4-Purdue vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Marquette vs. 12-Virginia Commonwealth
@Dayton
2-Louisville vs. 15-Robert Morris
7-Butler/Horizon vs. 10-Minnesota
@Minneapolis
3-Missouri vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit
6-Ucla vs. 11-Miami(FL)

New to the field: Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Akron, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's

Last four in the field: Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Creighton, Kentucky
First four left out: Nevada-Las Vegas, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Notre Dame
Next four left out: Penn State, Providence, Texas A&M, Rhode Island
Also in the mix: Temple, Georgetown, Nebraska, Tulsa, UAB, Illinois State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Southern California, Mississippi State

Myths and Realities

If you've been doing bracketology for a long time(or following it), you probably come to the realization that there are certain people that will complain to no end about your work, claiming that they know more about the subject than you do. But they don't. Here are a few myths you can use to defend yourself from the onslaught of Joe Homers.

Myth 1
CBS has a hand in picking teams in order to maximize ratings.

Reality 1
In truth, CBS does nothing to influence the selection committee. It only places one camera in the selection room(soundless of course) and occasionally checks in to see how far the committee is along in the process. For the past few years, reporter Seth Davis is allowed in, but only for a general look at the process and not for anything relating the bracket.

Myth 2
20 wins means an automatic invite to the dance.

Reality 2
In truth, 20 wins mean nothing to the committee in this era of multi-team tournaments, mega conferences and imbalanced schedules. Who you beat and where you beat them mean more than does the actual win count. Always has and always will.

Myth 3
Traditional powers will always get the benefit of the doubt, even if they have losing records.

Reality 3
If traditional powers have losing records, their only way to make the field is to be victorious in their conference tournament. The elites have to earn their way in, just like the proletariats in the lower leagues.

Myth 4
Conferences get bids based on how well the media perceives it.

Reality 4
The NCAA makes it quite explicit in the selection procedures and principles that teams get bids to the dance, not conferences(except the automatic qualifiers). An egregious example occured in 2007 when Brent Musburger said, during a Big Ten game no less, that the Big Ten would get five bids to the dance, causing a mild controversy. Turned out that his Museness was right, there were five teams from the Big Ten in the field.

Myth 5
Hyped-up matchups are contrived by the committee before the bracket is setup

Reality 5
Hyped-up matchups are actually the byproduct of the bracketing process. For instance, the top 3 teams from a given conference must be placed in different regions, no team may meet a fellow conference member until the regional finals, and so on.

Myth 6
The RPI is the be all and end all

Reality 6
The RPI is just one of many tools at the committee's hand, the most important one though is the observations of the ten members of the committee and it's their work that produces the most famous bracket in sports.

So if you find a Joe Homer who thinks he knows what he's talking about, pepper him with this material. You'll be glad you did.

For my 50th post

I want to announce that the Bracket Watch Open Brackets challenge is once again open on Yahoo!'s Tournament Pick 'em site: http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1

All you need to do is to enter at the site and enter ID# 3994. It's open to the public so call your friends to enter.

Bracket Watch - Into the stretch drive

The only thing that would make the stretch run to the big dance even more exciting would have to be choosing either Dave Johnson, Tom Durkin or Paul Allen doing the call as if it were the Kentucky Derby. Yes the battle to stay on the good site of the bubble or getting on to it is turning into a horse race. At this point the top 4 teams are stabilizing(despite the fact three of them lost week) and most at-large spots are close to being spoken for(if not claimed already). But there is no settlement at this point for most of the seeds and placements(Indeed after finishing the bracket this morning, I reshuffled the sites of a few pods).

Final Four pairings:
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round-Radford/Big South vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Kentucky vs. 9-Creighton/Missouri Valley
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-Penn State
5-Florida State vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Portland
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Long Beach State/Big West
7-Ucla vs. 10-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina

West region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley
8-Dayton vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Wake Forest vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Illinois vs. 12-Davidson/Southern
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Florida vs. 10-Arizona
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-Buffalo/Mid-American
6-Utah/Mountain West vs. 11-Maryland

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Binghamton/America East
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Tennessee
@Portland
4-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Washington/Pacific-10 vs 12-Miami(FL)
@Greensboro
2-Clemson vs. 15-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
7-Texas vs. 10-Brigham Young
@Minneapolis
3-Marquette vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit
6-Butler/Horizon vs. 11-Wisconsin

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
8-West Virginia vs. 9-Minnesota
@Boise
4-Arizona State vs. 13-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-San Diego State
@Dayton
2-Louisville vs. 15-Robert Morris/Northeast
7-Purdue vs. 10-Boston College
@Minneapolis
3-Missouri vs. 14-Cornell/Ivy
6-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas

Differences within the seed list:
Dayton(true 9 seed)
Minnesota(true 8 seed)
Siena(true 11 seed)
Wisconsin(true 12 seed)

New to the field: Binghamton, Maryland, Miami(FL), Penn State, Long Beach State, Virginia Commonwealth, Tennessee-Martin, Stephen F. Austin, Western Kentucky

Last four in the field: San Diego State, Miami(FL), Wisconsin, Penn State
First four left out: Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Temple
Next four left out: Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, UAB, Cincinnati
Also in contention: North Carolina State, Georgetown, Providence, Michigan, Baylor, Kansas State, Nebraska, Tulsa, New Mexico, Southern California, Mississippi State, Nevada

The next projection will come out on Friday. Indeed for the next for the next two weeks, I'm doing twice-weekly projections. For the week of Selection Sunday, there will be daily updates(except Saturday) with the final projection after the SEC final.

Bracket Watch - Mocking things as we go along

Last Thursday, whilst watching the Gatorade Duels that set the field for the Daytona 500(yes I have a life outside of this), the NCAA hosted a mock bracket shindig in which 20 lucky souls get to do their best selection committee impersonation and produce a field of 65 in which we real bracketologists get to rip. But not me, in fact, I'm envious of these people. Not that I would ever accept an NCAA invite to do this, I'm too busy with other stuff like watching cars go round in circles. Kyle Wheliston of The Mid-Majority wrote about his experiences at his blog: http://www.midmajority.com/2009/02/mock-selection-2009.php. Read it and then compare what I and about 50 others are doing at the Bracket Matrix.

As to this week's projections, read on:

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. Midwest(4)
South(2) vs. West(3)

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Morehead State/Ohio Valley
8-Florida State vs. 9-South Carolina
@Boise
4-Illinois vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Arizona State vs. 12-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Dayton/Atlantic 10 vs. 10-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-Arkansas-Little Rock
6-Villanova vs. 11-Wisconsin

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Radford/Big Sky vs. Northridge State/Big West
8-Kentucky vs. 9-Boston College
@Minneapolis
4-Xavier vs. 13-Buffalo/Mid-American
5-Purdue vs. 12-Providence
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Vermont/America East
7-Ohio State vs. 10-San Diego State
@Minneapolis
3-Missouri vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Syracuse vs. 11-Creighton

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Minnesota vs. 9-California
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Gonzaga vs. 12-Cincinnati
@Dayton
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Cornell/Ivy
7-Texas vs. 10-Davidson/Southern
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Sam Houston State/Southland
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Florida

West region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Utah/Mountain West vs. 9-Tennessee
@Portland
4-Marquette vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Ucla vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Miami
2-Clemson vs. 15-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
7-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 10-Arizona
@Philadelphia
3-Louisville vs. 14-Northeastern/Colonial
6-Butler/Horizon vs. 11-Brigham Young

New to the field: Vermont, Jacksonville, Radford, Wisconsin, Northridge State, Cornell, Creighton, Brigham Young, American, Kentucky, Arkansas-Little Rock

Last four in the field: Cincinnati, Nevada-Las Vegas, Creighton, Providence
First four left out: Miami(FL), Southern California, Georgetown, Michigan
Next four left out: Nebraska, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Notre Dame
Also under consideration: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Penn State, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, George Mason, UAB, Tulsa, Illinois State, Stanford

New polls will be up shortly. The next projection is next week.

UPDATE: Added Virginia Tech as under consideration.

State of the Bubble(Part 4)

The more I think about this year's bubble, the more it resembles 2006 when the committee picked Utah State, Air Force and George Mason over the likes of Cincinnati, Missouri State and others. If anyone gets all 34 at-large teams this year, they'll have earned it. Obviously if no one gets all 34, I wouldn't be surprised. Every year it seems that all of us bracketologists get at least 1 team wrong. With that in mind, here is the last installment of the State of the Bubble.

Pacific-10
Likely number of bids: 4-6
Lock: UCLA
Close to lockhood: Arizona State, California, Washington
In the mix: Arizona, Southern California
Losing the edge: Stanford
New coach? Constant roster turmoil? No chance at a bid? No problem if you're Arizona. The Wildcats have rattled of 6 in a row heading into tonights bubble battle with the Trojans. Southern California won the 1st meeting earlier this year in the final moments.

Patriot
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: American
Holy Cross might have won the first meeting, but that was in Worcester. The Eagles welcome the Crusaders to Washington for the next one. One that will in all likelyhood determine the top seed here.

Southeastern
Likely number of bids: 3-5
In the mix: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Losing the edge: Arkansas, Mississippi State
Yes, you're reading it right. There are no locks in the SEC, not even teams that are close. That doesn't suggest that this will be a one bid league. In fact, there's bound to be significant controversy if it gets 5. With Commissioner Mike Silve as the chair of the selection committee, it may very well happen.

Southern
Likely number of bids: 1-2
In the mix: Davidson
Just like last year, the Wildcats(or more accurately, Stephen Curry) had a loaded schedule. Their only big win occured against West Virginia at Madison Square Garden, but at least did well early in the season vs. Oklahoma. The most significant result however, was a 2 point loss to the College of Charleston that could deny the Wildcats an at-large berth if needed.

Southland
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Stephen F. Austin
Who can figure this conference out? I know I can't. Which is why the Lumberjacks are listed here.

Southwestern
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Alabama State
Regardless of who wins, the champion is a sure lock to be team #65 on the seed list with a trip to the opening round game in Dayton.

Summit League
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: North Dakota State
In only their first year of big dance eligiblity, the Bison are storming(so to speak) to their first Summit crown. With the tourney in Sioux Falls, look for the Bison to stop the advance of long time kingpin Oral Roberts.

Sun Belt
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Western Kentucky
Unlike last year, there are no at-large hopefuls out of this league, so look for Big Red and his Hilltoppers to once again rule the Belt.

West Coast
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Close to lockhood: Gonzaga
In the mix: St. Mary's
The Gaels may miss their leader Patrick Mills, but this team is was a borderline bubble team even with him. Upsetting the Zags, or perhaps beating Utah State next week could change that perception.

Western Athletic
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Close to lockhood: Utah State
The Aggies were helped last night by Utah's win over San Diego State, but the Aggies probably don't need the help as they could clinch the outright WAC championship this weekend.

And with that, the state of the bubble is fully adressed. We now return you to your regularly scheduled bracket watching.

State of the bubble(Part 3)

Yes, I was going to do the third part of the State of the bubble series on Thursday, but I couldn't resist doing one before the first really important UNC/Duke game tonight. So here we go into the....

Horizon League
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Lock: Butler
In the mix: Green Bay
Remember all those preseason predictions that Butler would quietly sink to the middle of the pack in the Horizon? Of course you don't. We should've seen this coming from Brad Stevens' Bulldogs. Of course they couldn't get by the Phoenix last week in the frozen tundra, giving Green Bay an outside chance at an at-large.

Ivy League
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Cornell
Cornell still is favored by a more favorable schedule in league play. But it's Princeton who's the league leader, with a 20 point shellacking of the Big Red last week. There's no tournament in the Ancient Eight, so the winner has to earn it the hard way.

Metro Atlantic
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Siena
The Saints 90-88 loss to Rider last Sunday has all but eliminated it from at-large contention, or was it even in contention to begin with? Well failing to score a non-conference scalp against the likes of Tennessee, Pittsburgh, etc. would have hampered the Saints even if they went 18-0 in the MAAC.

Mid-American
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Buffalo
The Bulls are favored over Miami(OH) by virtue of it's non-conference performance(Winning the Rainbow Classic; close loss to Connecticut). If Buffalo can win, it would be it's first Big Dance in it's history.

Mid-Eastern
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Morgan State
The Bears are in the same boat as Buffalo, looking to nail down it's inagural Big Dance invite. Todd Bozeman's team came close last year, but were upset by Coppin State in the conference championship.

Missouri Valley
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Creighton
Dana Altman's charges have the best RPI in the league and on Tuesday defeated current leader Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls. Despite remaining in the top 10 of both the RPI and Ken Pomeroy's ratings, the valley is destined to be a one-bid conference for the 2nd straight year.

Mountain West:
Likely number of bids: 2-4
In the mix: Brigham Young, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah
Of the five teams listed here, the Utes have the most perplexing profile. Wins over Gonzaga and Louisiana State are offset by losses to Idaho State and Division II Southwest Baptist(WTF is with that?). The MWC should get at least 2, but if it gets 3 or 4, I won't be surprised. If gets only one, it may be a greater injustice than Utah being denied a national championship if football.

Northeast
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Robert Morris
Falling short of the field last season, the Colonials are 2 games clear heading in to the stretch drive. Anyother team that wins the tournament will likely be headed to Dayton for the opening round.

Ohio Valley
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Morehead State
The last time the Phil Simms' alma mater was dancing was 1984. They should go again, despite challenges from resurgent Tennessee-Martin, last year's winner Austin Peay and ole standbuys Murray State.

Part 4 tomorrow, I promise.

State of the Bubble(Part 2)

Big Sky
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Weber State
Having already beaten fellow contenders Montana and Portland State, the Wildcats have the edge for homecourt advantage in the conference tournament.

Big South
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Virginia Military
The Keydets, the highest scoring team in country, are tied with Radford for 1st, but hold the edge for the top seed due to a win at the Highlanders. Liberty has beaten the Keydets in Lexington, VA and could do so again should they meet in the finals.

Big Ten
Likely number of bids: 5-7
Locks: Michigan State
Close to lockhood: Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue
In the mix: Michigan, Northwestern, Penn State, Wisconsin
To say the Big Ten is overachieving this year is an understatement. But the matter is simply the league is close to regaining the prominence it had in 2005. Of the four teams in the mix, the Badgers are the closest to being close to lockhood, but a six game losing streak in the middle of conference play cannot be overlooked. Purdue might fall off to the in the mix line if Robbie Hummel can't get back quickly.

Big 12
Likely number of bids: 4-6
Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma
Close to lockhood: Texas
In the mix: Baylor, Kansas State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
The first three are solidly safe, then there's a dropoff to the Longhorns, and then another sharp drop to the in the mix crowd. Could the top four be the only ones to make the dance? Maybe, but even then Texas may continue to slide(Last night's win over Oklahoma State not withstanding).

Big West
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Long Beach State
Dan Monson has done a respectable job of reviving the 49ers. Whether or not it gets Long Beach to the dance is another matter, Cal State Fullerton, UC Davis and Northridge State will have something to say about that.

Colonial
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Northeastern
The Boston based Huskies weren't expected to contend for the overall crown, yet they're a game up over the competition including Virginia Commonwealth, whom the Huskies beat on the Rams' home court.

Conference USA
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Locks: Memphis
In the mix: UAB, Tulsa
Memphis is once again the prohibitive favorite to win the automatic bid. The Blazers and Golden Hurricane are on the verge of falling off the bubble entirely, but both have chances to knock the Tigers off(Tulsa actually came close to beating the Tigers at home in their first meeting, but the Tigers won on a last second shot).

Part 3 tomorrow.

State of the Bubble (Part 1)

With less than 5 weeks before Mike Silve and his fellow selection committee members hunker down in downtown Indianapolis to hammer out the field of 65, here is a (somewhat) detailed look at how the bubble is shaping up:

America East
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Vermont
Boston University is the current leader(as of Monday), but the Terriers have to visit the Catamounts on Wednesday night. The winner should have the inside edge for the #1 seed in the conference tournament. Binghamton, the surprise early leader is also in the mix.

Atlantic Coast
Likely number of bids: 6-8
Locks: Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Close to lockhood: Florida State
In the mix: Boston College, Miami(FL), Virginia Tech
Losing the edge: Maryland
The Seminoles recent hot streak has them closer to lock status recently, but they probably need one more high profile win(likely @ Wake) to feel secure. The Eagles famously followed up their upset of North Carolina in Chapel by being beat by Harvard at the Conte Forum. Miami and Virginia Tech both have upsets over Wake Forest, but little else. The Terps are all but finished after being routed by the Heels.

Atlantic Sun
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Belmont
It's deja vu in the A-Sun, where Vince Gill's favorite team is rising to the top of the standings. With the conference tourney in Nashville, look for the Bruins to get the better of East Tennessee State and Jacksonville.

Atlantic 10
Likely number of bids: 1-3
Lock: Xavier
In the mix: Dayton, Duquesne
Losing the edge: Rhode Island, Temple
Xavier is well entrenched, but a loss to Duquesne helped dent their inviciblilty within the league. The Flyers' hopes have been rocked by losses to Massachusetts and Charlotte. Neither the Rams nor the Owls had the kind of non-conference seasons they could fall back on if their conference seasons faltered.

Big East
Likely number of bids: 7-10
Locks: Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova
Close to lockhood: West Virginia
In the mix: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Providence
Losing the edge: Notre Dame
If any conference deserves the description muddled, it this one. And I'm going to leave it at that.

More on this later.

Bracket Watch - Over a muddling field

When I mean a muddling field, I mean a pool of at-large teams that are falling into a growing field of mediocrity or trying to reach it. That means the field is considerably more fluid this week. Without trying to get into too much detail, it means that the at-large field will be more difficult to pick on Selection Sunday.

Now on to the latest projected field(as of Sunday night's games):

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. Midwest(3)

East Region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Morehead State/Ohio Valley
8-Utah State/Western Athletic vs. 9-Florida State
@Minneapolis
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Butler/Horizon vs. 12-Kansas State
@Miami
2-Clemson vs. 15-Virginia Military/Big South
7-California vs. 10-Providence
@Kansas City
3-Missouri vs. 14-Sam Houston State/Southland
6-Ohio State vs. 11-Cincinnati

West Region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round Winner
Opening Round: Long Beach State/Big West vs. Princeton/Ivy
8-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 9-Miami(FL)
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Illinois vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Greensboro
2-Duke/Atlantic Coast vs. 15-East Tennessee State/Atlantic Sun
7-Texas vs. 10-South Carolina
@Portland
3-Ucla/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/Big Sky
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas

South Region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Minnesota vs. 9-Utah
@Boise
4-Wake Forest vs. 13-Northeastern/Colonial
5-Villanova vs. 12-Arizona
@Dayton
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Holy Cross/Patriot
7-Arizona State vs. 10-Davidson/Southern
@Philadelphia
3-Louisville vs. 14-Buffalo/Mid-American
6-Florida vs. 11-Boston College

Midwest Region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Dayton vs. 9-Tennessee
@Portland
4-Washington vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Syracuse vs. 12-Michigan
@Minneapolis
2-Marquette vs. 15-Boston University/America East
7-San Diego State/Mountain West vs. 10-Gonzaga/West Coast
@Miami
3-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Purdue vs. 11-Virginia Tech

New to the field this week: Boston University, Boston College, Miami(FL), Cincinnati, Michigan, Kansas State, Princeton, San Diego State, Arizona, Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky

Last four in the field: Cincinnati, Michigan, Arizona, Kansas State
First four left out: Georgetown, Brigham Young, Penn State, Nebraska
Next four left out: Creighton, Maryland, Wisconsin, Southern California
Also in consideration: Duquesne, Rhode Island, Temple, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Virginia Commonwealth, UAB, Tulsa, Green Bay, New Mexico, Kentucky, Mississippi State, College of Charleston

Polls will be up later.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Added Wisconsin as a bubble team.

Bracket Watch - An ode to Super Monday....

NOT!!!!

Actually the title for this week's post of the projections is a tweak at a man who wants to be known as the last man to know who won the Super Bowl, Kyle Wheliston.

He has a ritual that he tries to be the last one to know who won the Super Bowl. Last year, he attempted to wait until Wednesday to learn who won. Only to be blocked by a group of Valparaiso University students who revealed that the New York Giants had upset the New England Patriots. So this year, if you read the Mid-Majority blog, don't e-mail him. Just for the record, yes the Pittsburgh Steelers are enjoying the joy of six($1 to the 1991 San Diego Sockers indoor soccer team).

On to the projections, which are totally jumbled after a slew of upsets.

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. Midwest(3)

East Region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut(New Overall #1) vs. 16-Holy Cross/Patriot League
8-Utah State/Western Athletic vs. 9-Missouri
@Portland
4-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Ucla vs. 12-Utah
@Miami
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-Arkansas-Little Rock/Sun Belt
7-Davidson/Southern vs. 10-Florida
@Minneapolis
3-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 14-Virginia Military/Big South
6-Syracuse vs. 11-Oklahoma State

West Region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening Round Winner
Opening Round: Morehead State/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-California vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas/Mountain West
@Boise
4-Texas vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Northwestern
@Greensboro
2-North Carolina vs. 15-Vermont/America East
7-South Carolina vs. 10-Dayton
@Kansas City
3-Purdue vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit League
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Southern California

South Region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Ohio State
@Boise
4-Butler/Horizon vs. 13-Long Beach State/Big West
5-Villanova vs. 12-Portland
@Dayton
2-Pittsburgh vs. 15-Cornell/Ivy
7-Arizona State vs. 10-Penn State
@Miami
3-Clemson vs. 14-East Tennessee State/Atlantic Sun
6-Kentucky vs. 11-Siena/Metro Atlantic

Midwest Region
@Greensboro
1-Duke/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Robert Morris/Northeast
8-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 9-Georgetown
@Portland
4-Minnesota vs. 13-Buffalo/Mid-American
5-Kansas vs. 12-Providence
@Minneapolis
2-Marquette vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 10-Tennessee
@Philadelphia
3-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 14-Northeastern/Colonial
6-Illinois vs. 11-Florida State

New to the field: Virginia Tech, East Tennessee State, Northwestern, Penn State, Northeastern, Buffalo, Nevada-Las Vegas, Utah, Morehead State, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, Portland

Last four in the field: Southern California, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Portland
First four left out: Brigham Young, Boston College, Notre Dame, Arizona
Next four left out: Mississippi State, Miami(FL), Creighton, St. Mary's
Also in the mix: Maryland, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Michigan, Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Virginia Commonwealth, UAB, Tulsa, Green Bay, Miami(OH), Bradley, Illinois State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Texas Christian, Stanford, Arkansas, Nevada

New Polls will be up shortly.