Final Four Pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. Midwest(3)
SOUTH Region
North Little Rock
(1)Memphis(CUSA) vs. (16)Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Navy(Patriot) vs. Alabama State(SWAC)
(8)Miami(FL)* vs. (9)Oklahoma*
Denver
(4)Notre Dame vs. (13)Illinois State*
(5)Mississippi State vs. (12)Western Kentucky(Sun Belt)*
Washington D.C.
(2)Xavier(A-10) vs. (15)Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
(7)Clemson vs. (10)Texas A&M*
Omaha
(3)Wisconsin(Big Ten) vs. (14)Rider(Metro Atlantic)
(6)Washington State vs. (11)Kentucky*
WEST Region
Anaheim
(1)UCLA(Pac-10) vs. (16)Portland State(Big Sky)
(8)Gonzaga vs. (9)West Virginia*
Birmingham
(4)Vanderbilt vs. (13)Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial)*
(5)Indiana vs. (12)Stephen F. Austin*
Omaha
(2)Kansas vs. (15)Northridge State(Big West)
(7)Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. (10)Arkansas*
Washington D.C.
(3)Louisville vs. (14)Winthrop(Big South)
(6)Butler(Horizon) vs. (11)Arizona State*
EAST Region
Birmingham
(1)Tennessee(SEC) vs. (16)Morgan State(MEAC)
(8)Arizona vs. (9)Baylor*
Denver
(4)Purdue vs. (13)Oral Roberts(Summit)
(5)Marquette vs. (12)Alabama-Birmingham*
Raleigh
(2)Duke(ACC) vs. (15)Robert Morris(Northeast)
(7)Kent State(Mid-American) vs. (10)South Alabama*
Tampa
(3)Georgetown(Big East) vs. (14)Maryland-Baltimore County(America East)
(6)Michigan State vs. (11)Southern Illinois*
MIDWEST Region
North Little Rock
(1)Texas(Big 12) vs. (16)Lamar(Southland)
(8)Southern California vs. (9)St. Joseph's*
Tampa
(4)Connecticut vs. (13)Cornell(Ivy)
(5)Drake(Missouri Valley) vs. (12)Davidson(Southern)*
Raleigh
(2)North Carolina vs. (15) Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
(7)Pittsburgh vs. (10)Kansas State*
Anaheim
(3)Stanford vs. (14)Boise State(WAC)
(6)St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. (11)Nevada-Las Vegas
New in the field: Illinois State, Arizona State, Navy, Western Kentucky
Out of the field: Massachusetts, Villanova, New Mexico, American
Last four in the field: Southern Illinois, Alabama-Birmingham, Stephen F. Austin, Illinois State
First four out of the field: Florida, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Syracuse
Next four out of the field: Maryland, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Villanova
Next fout out after that: Oregon, Nebraska, Rhode island, Cincinnati
Also in contention: Wake Forest, Dayton, Texas Tech, Houston, Wright State, Creighton, California
Next update: March 3rd
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
State of the Bubble: Southwestern to Western Athletic
How is your team fairing compared to others? Are there any locks that come out surprising to you? How far will Tom O'Connor and his band of bracketeers go to find an at-large? Who knows any of this? Well let me help out with a 6-part series about teams in the field, near the field, and teams losing contact with it. This is the State of the Bubble! The last installment!
Southwestern
Bid: 1
Likely Winner: Alabama State
This is the only league where the at-large pool is a no go. Indeed, whoever wins will be the 65th seed in this year's field.
Summit League
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Oral Roberts
The Golden Eagles' slim chance of an at-large were eviscerated by a one point loss to Creighton last Saturday. But they still are the favorite to emerge from the collective formerly known as the Mid-Con as the tourney is in Tulsa(not at Oral Roberts).
Sun Belt
Bid Range: 1-3
Almost there: South Alabama
Bubble Rider: Western Kentucky
The Belt hasn't produced an at-large since 1990, but USA has a good case to make should they not win the Sun Belt. But if they do lose it will be in Mobile which could cause some members to wince. Western Kentucky could make one also, but only if they meet the Jaguars in the title tilt.
West Coast
Bid Range: 2-3
Almost there: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Because the loser of the March 1st battle between these two may still finish in a tie for 2nd(with San Diego), neither is considered a lock just yet. That might not matter at this point given the state of the bubble. The Toreros not only could finish in a tie for 2nd, they could shrink the bubble as they host the conference tourney.
Western Athletic
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: New Mexico State
The Aggies are currently behind Boise State in the WAC pecking order, but have the advantage of not only hosting the conference tourney, but also playing the last game of the day they're still alive. No at-large hope though due to an atrocious non-conference performance.
And that is the state of the bubble as of today.
Southwestern
Bid: 1
Likely Winner: Alabama State
This is the only league where the at-large pool is a no go. Indeed, whoever wins will be the 65th seed in this year's field.
Summit League
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Oral Roberts
The Golden Eagles' slim chance of an at-large were eviscerated by a one point loss to Creighton last Saturday. But they still are the favorite to emerge from the collective formerly known as the Mid-Con as the tourney is in Tulsa(not at Oral Roberts).
Sun Belt
Bid Range: 1-3
Almost there: South Alabama
Bubble Rider: Western Kentucky
The Belt hasn't produced an at-large since 1990, but USA has a good case to make should they not win the Sun Belt. But if they do lose it will be in Mobile which could cause some members to wince. Western Kentucky could make one also, but only if they meet the Jaguars in the title tilt.
West Coast
Bid Range: 2-3
Almost there: Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Because the loser of the March 1st battle between these two may still finish in a tie for 2nd(with San Diego), neither is considered a lock just yet. That might not matter at this point given the state of the bubble. The Toreros not only could finish in a tie for 2nd, they could shrink the bubble as they host the conference tourney.
Western Athletic
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: New Mexico State
The Aggies are currently behind Boise State in the WAC pecking order, but have the advantage of not only hosting the conference tourney, but also playing the last game of the day they're still alive. No at-large hope though due to an atrocious non-conference performance.
And that is the state of the bubble as of today.
State of the Bubble: Pacific-10 to Southland
How is your team fairing compared to others? Are there any locks that come out surprising to you? How far will Tom O'Connor and his band of bracketeers go to find an at-large? Who knows any of this? Well let me help out with a 6-part series about teams in the field, near the field, and teams losing contact with it. This is the State of the Bubble! Part Five!
Pacific-10
Bid Range: 5-7
Locked Up: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State
Almost There: Arizona, Southern California
Bubble Riders: Arizona State, California, Oregon
Quick, name the last 9-9 team from the Pac-10 to get an NCAA invite.........I'm not surprised you didn't come up with someone as the fact is NO Pac-10 team with a 9-9 mark has ever made the field. Arizona(without Lute Olson) may make case for doing so if it splits the last four games. O.J. Mayo and his Trojans could face a similar predicament. The other 3 need help, but expect one of them to be chosen.
Patriot
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: American
The Eagles have never been in the big dance(the closest they came was 1981), but they stand a good chance to do so this year. The biggest obstacle however is Navy, who already owns a win over the Eagles on American's home court.
Southeastern
Bid Range: 4-5
Locked Up: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Almost There: Mississippi State
Bubble Riders: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi
No conference better reflects the State of the bubble better than this one. Kentucky, left for dead as little a month ago and with home losses to such famed squads as Gardner-Webb and San Diego, is in good position to not only get in the field, but to also win the SEC outright. (Yep, you're not hearing things, they do control their own destiny.) Defending champion Florida has no non-conference heft, but are hanging around for the sole reason of hanging around. Mississippi is this year's Clemson(great in non-conference, poor in conference.)
Southern
Bid-Range: 1-2
Bubble Rider: Davidson
The Wildcats are this year's litmus test, as in the test of "Who did you play, who did you beat and where did you play". Davidson did play Duke, North Carolina and UCLA but lost those games, also a blot is a loss to Western Michigan. Should the Wildcats go 20-0 in SoCon play and were to lose the final, the likelyhood of an at-large bid is 30% at worst, 75% at best.
Southland
Bid Range: 1-2
Bubble Rider: Stephen F. Austin
If I has said that the Lumberjacks had a chance at an at-large berth at the start of the season, you probably commit me to a mental hospital. But here we are and things are so screwy that the Lumberjacks, despite being in second in the Southland(overall of course) are not only on the bubble, they have a decent chance of making it. Doing it the easy way of course(winning the conference tourney) will take out any doubt.
Last up: Southwestern to Western Athletic
Pacific-10
Bid Range: 5-7
Locked Up: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State
Almost There: Arizona, Southern California
Bubble Riders: Arizona State, California, Oregon
Quick, name the last 9-9 team from the Pac-10 to get an NCAA invite.........I'm not surprised you didn't come up with someone as the fact is NO Pac-10 team with a 9-9 mark has ever made the field. Arizona(without Lute Olson) may make case for doing so if it splits the last four games. O.J. Mayo and his Trojans could face a similar predicament. The other 3 need help, but expect one of them to be chosen.
Patriot
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: American
The Eagles have never been in the big dance(the closest they came was 1981), but they stand a good chance to do so this year. The biggest obstacle however is Navy, who already owns a win over the Eagles on American's home court.
Southeastern
Bid Range: 4-5
Locked Up: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Almost There: Mississippi State
Bubble Riders: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi
No conference better reflects the State of the bubble better than this one. Kentucky, left for dead as little a month ago and with home losses to such famed squads as Gardner-Webb and San Diego, is in good position to not only get in the field, but to also win the SEC outright. (Yep, you're not hearing things, they do control their own destiny.) Defending champion Florida has no non-conference heft, but are hanging around for the sole reason of hanging around. Mississippi is this year's Clemson(great in non-conference, poor in conference.)
Southern
Bid-Range: 1-2
Bubble Rider: Davidson
The Wildcats are this year's litmus test, as in the test of "Who did you play, who did you beat and where did you play". Davidson did play Duke, North Carolina and UCLA but lost those games, also a blot is a loss to Western Michigan. Should the Wildcats go 20-0 in SoCon play and were to lose the final, the likelyhood of an at-large bid is 30% at worst, 75% at best.
Southland
Bid Range: 1-2
Bubble Rider: Stephen F. Austin
If I has said that the Lumberjacks had a chance at an at-large berth at the start of the season, you probably commit me to a mental hospital. But here we are and things are so screwy that the Lumberjacks, despite being in second in the Southland(overall of course) are not only on the bubble, they have a decent chance of making it. Doing it the easy way of course(winning the conference tourney) will take out any doubt.
Last up: Southwestern to Western Athletic
State of the Bubble: Mid-Eastern to Ohio Valley
How is your team fairing compared to others? Are there any locks that come out surprising to you? How far will Tom O'Connor and his band of bracketeers go to find an at-large? Who knows any of this? Well let me help out with a 6-part series about teams in the field, near the field, and teams losing contact with it. This is the State of the Bubble! Part Four!
Mid-Eastern
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Morgan State
The more succesful of the two D-I HBCU leagues this year, the MEAC's two likely frontrunners for the bid are going for their first ever. Morgan State is the current leader, but 2nd place Norfolk State beat them head-to-head back in January. Still you can't count out a surprise winner Raleigh(Think Delaware State, Hampton).
Missouri Valley
Bid Range: 1-3
Locked up: Drake
Bubble Riders: Creighton, Illinois State, Southern Illinois
Who didn't see this coming? The Salukis(and to a lesser extent the Blue Jays) are making an aggressive outside run to a possible second bid from the valley(and they may not need the auto bid). They have a big tussle with Illinois State(also a legit bubble rider) this weekend for the 2nd seed in Saint Louis. Oh, just to let you know, Drake is indeed a legit threat to reach the Sweet 16.
Mountain West
Bid Range: 1-3
Almost there: Brigham Young
Bubble Riders: Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico
Depending on how the conference tourney goes, this could be a one bid league, or it could be a three bid league. Either way, the Cougars figure to be prominent in the field of 65. New Mexico may have thrown away a bid back to the bubble by losing to the Cougs last night.
Northeast
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Robert Morris
In the NEC, homecourt advantage in the tourney means everything, and the Colonials, with wins over Sacred Heart and Wagner have the edge for now. Should they gain the top seed here, they'll be home for the duration of tourney.
Ohio Valley
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Austin Peay
The Govenors need one more win(or one Murray State loss) to clinch the outright RS crown, but the last two games are on the road. Also important is that the OVC is reseeding the semifinals this year, meaning the top seed will play the weakest 1st round winner.
Next up: Pacific-10 to Southland
Mid-Eastern
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Morgan State
The more succesful of the two D-I HBCU leagues this year, the MEAC's two likely frontrunners for the bid are going for their first ever. Morgan State is the current leader, but 2nd place Norfolk State beat them head-to-head back in January. Still you can't count out a surprise winner Raleigh(Think Delaware State, Hampton).
Missouri Valley
Bid Range: 1-3
Locked up: Drake
Bubble Riders: Creighton, Illinois State, Southern Illinois
Who didn't see this coming? The Salukis(and to a lesser extent the Blue Jays) are making an aggressive outside run to a possible second bid from the valley(and they may not need the auto bid). They have a big tussle with Illinois State(also a legit bubble rider) this weekend for the 2nd seed in Saint Louis. Oh, just to let you know, Drake is indeed a legit threat to reach the Sweet 16.
Mountain West
Bid Range: 1-3
Almost there: Brigham Young
Bubble Riders: Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico
Depending on how the conference tourney goes, this could be a one bid league, or it could be a three bid league. Either way, the Cougars figure to be prominent in the field of 65. New Mexico may have thrown away a bid back to the bubble by losing to the Cougs last night.
Northeast
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Robert Morris
In the NEC, homecourt advantage in the tourney means everything, and the Colonials, with wins over Sacred Heart and Wagner have the edge for now. Should they gain the top seed here, they'll be home for the duration of tourney.
Ohio Valley
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Austin Peay
The Govenors need one more win(or one Murray State loss) to clinch the outright RS crown, but the last two games are on the road. Also important is that the OVC is reseeding the semifinals this year, meaning the top seed will play the weakest 1st round winner.
Next up: Pacific-10 to Southland
State of the Bubble: Colonial to Mid-American
How is your team fairing compared to others? Are there any locks that come out surprising to you? How far will Tom O'Connor and his band of bracketeers go to find an at-large? Who knows any of this? Well let me help out with a 6-part series about teams in the field, near the field, and teams losing contact with it. This is the State of the Bubble! Part Three!
Colonial
Bid Range: 1-2
Bubble Riders: George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth
Please note that I'm giving the Colonial a bid range only because Tom O'Connor(George Mason's AD and VP) is the chair. That said, this will likely be a one bid conference, only because of recent home losses by the two bubble riders(The Rams lost to Old Dominion, the Patriots to UNC Wilmington).
Conference USA
Bid Range: 1-2
Locked Up: Memphis
Bubble Riders: Alabama-Birmingham, Houston
By all rights, only Memphis should be in, but when you have one dominant team, one or two stragglers are sure to follow. The Blazers and Cougars are those stragglers, with UAB holding the edge due to a tete-a-tete win and a near scalp of the Tigers on February 16th.
Horizon
Bid Range: 1-2
Locked Up: Butler
Bubble Rider: Wright State
Bid Range is only up because the Raiders won the first matchup. But that was in Dayton and the rematch Thursday is in Hinkle Fieldhouse. Butler is playing for seeding, but it's loss at the hands of Drake means a top 4 seed is almost out of reach.
Ivy League
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Cornell
Actually you can start ingraving Cornell's invite today, the Big Red have a 3 game lead on Brown and can clinch as early as this weekend in the only league without a conference tourney.
Metro Atlantic
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Niagara
This year's MAAC is reminiscent of the AFC Central of the 1980's. Everyone it seems is tied for first. I like Niagara to emerge from the conference tournament, but you could say he same thing about Loyola(MD), Rider or Siena.
Mid-American
Bid Range: 1-2
Almost There: Kent State
Bubble Rider: Ohio
Is this the year the MAC Daddies get a second bid? Well the only it will happen is if the Golden Flashes make it to the championship Game. The Flashes made it easier by going in Moraga and toppling Saint Mary's, something Drake, Oregon and Gonzaga couldn't do. Ohio could make a case(given it's upset of Maryland) but unlikely to do so.
Colonial
Bid Range: 1-2
Bubble Riders: George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth
Please note that I'm giving the Colonial a bid range only because Tom O'Connor(George Mason's AD and VP) is the chair. That said, this will likely be a one bid conference, only because of recent home losses by the two bubble riders(The Rams lost to Old Dominion, the Patriots to UNC Wilmington).
Conference USA
Bid Range: 1-2
Locked Up: Memphis
Bubble Riders: Alabama-Birmingham, Houston
By all rights, only Memphis should be in, but when you have one dominant team, one or two stragglers are sure to follow. The Blazers and Cougars are those stragglers, with UAB holding the edge due to a tete-a-tete win and a near scalp of the Tigers on February 16th.
Horizon
Bid Range: 1-2
Locked Up: Butler
Bubble Rider: Wright State
Bid Range is only up because the Raiders won the first matchup. But that was in Dayton and the rematch Thursday is in Hinkle Fieldhouse. Butler is playing for seeding, but it's loss at the hands of Drake means a top 4 seed is almost out of reach.
Ivy League
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Cornell
Actually you can start ingraving Cornell's invite today, the Big Red have a 3 game lead on Brown and can clinch as early as this weekend in the only league without a conference tourney.
Metro Atlantic
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Niagara
This year's MAAC is reminiscent of the AFC Central of the 1980's. Everyone it seems is tied for first. I like Niagara to emerge from the conference tournament, but you could say he same thing about Loyola(MD), Rider or Siena.
Mid-American
Bid Range: 1-2
Almost There: Kent State
Bubble Rider: Ohio
Is this the year the MAC Daddies get a second bid? Well the only it will happen is if the Golden Flashes make it to the championship Game. The Flashes made it easier by going in Moraga and toppling Saint Mary's, something Drake, Oregon and Gonzaga couldn't do. Ohio could make a case(given it's upset of Maryland) but unlikely to do so.
State of the Bubble: Big Sky to Big West
How is your team fairing compared to others? Are there any locks that come out surprising to you? How far will Tom O'Connor and his band of bracketeers go to find an at-large? Who knows any of this? Well let me help out with a 6-part series about teams in the field, near the field, and teams losing contact with it. This is the State of the Bubble! Part Two!
Big Sky
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Portland State
The Vikings are now in their twelfth year of their hoops revival and are close to locking up the overall conference crown. The biggest perk that comes with winning is hosting the semifinals and championship at your place(Not that it didn't help the Vikings a few years ago, they lost in the semis after winning the RS crown). With wins against wouldbe pursuers Northern Arizona(Sweep) and Weber State, the Vikings should have an easy time clinching their first big dance invite.
Big South
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Winthrop
The window of opprotunity for the rest of the Big South turned out to be a mirage. Or did it? UNC Asheville lead for most of the season, but after an injury to center Kenny George, the Bulldogs have stumbled, allowing the Eagles and new coach Randy Peele to slip into first. The winner of the RS crown will have homecourt edge throughout the tourney.
Big Ten
Bid Range: 4-5
Locked Up: Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Bubble Riders: Minnesota, Ohio State
Matt Painter deserves the lions share of credit for the success his Boilermakers have had this Big Ten season. Rated as either a bubble rider or a non-entity in the preseason(and before Big Ten play after losing to Wofford at home), Purdue has a good chance of getting at least a tie for the RS title. Outside of the big 4, there's little out there. The Buckeyes may have won their last regular season game in advance of a tough finish, while Tubby Smith has piloted the Gophers to an outside run at the tourney, a weak non-conference slate though will keep the Gophers out of the big dance.
Big 12
Bid Range: 4-6
Locked Up: Kansas, Texas
Almost There: Kansas State, Oklahoma
Bubble Riders: Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
The Aggie faithful are getting nervous. With a loss to Nebraska(whom themselves get into a reasonable discussion), TAMU is quickly sliding into bubble irrelevance. Baylor may soon join them despite a good non-conference and a potential bubble-saving win over Kansas State. Bob Knight's resignation may give Texas Tech some sympathy votes, but the Zorros are a long shot(and that's putting it mildly). Still, the conference looks good for 4 and perhaps 5 bids.
Big West
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Northridge State
Yes they were beaten by Rider in their BracketBuster matchup over the weekend, but the Matadors are still leading the conference. That may change though as Pacific and Fullerton State(Both of whom have beaten the Matadors, the latter's win came at Northridge)are still hot on their trail. Everything will be settled in Anaheim.
Next Up: Colonial to Mid-American
Big Sky
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Portland State
The Vikings are now in their twelfth year of their hoops revival and are close to locking up the overall conference crown. The biggest perk that comes with winning is hosting the semifinals and championship at your place(Not that it didn't help the Vikings a few years ago, they lost in the semis after winning the RS crown). With wins against wouldbe pursuers Northern Arizona(Sweep) and Weber State, the Vikings should have an easy time clinching their first big dance invite.
Big South
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Winthrop
The window of opprotunity for the rest of the Big South turned out to be a mirage. Or did it? UNC Asheville lead for most of the season, but after an injury to center Kenny George, the Bulldogs have stumbled, allowing the Eagles and new coach Randy Peele to slip into first. The winner of the RS crown will have homecourt edge throughout the tourney.
Big Ten
Bid Range: 4-5
Locked Up: Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Bubble Riders: Minnesota, Ohio State
Matt Painter deserves the lions share of credit for the success his Boilermakers have had this Big Ten season. Rated as either a bubble rider or a non-entity in the preseason(and before Big Ten play after losing to Wofford at home), Purdue has a good chance of getting at least a tie for the RS title. Outside of the big 4, there's little out there. The Buckeyes may have won their last regular season game in advance of a tough finish, while Tubby Smith has piloted the Gophers to an outside run at the tourney, a weak non-conference slate though will keep the Gophers out of the big dance.
Big 12
Bid Range: 4-6
Locked Up: Kansas, Texas
Almost There: Kansas State, Oklahoma
Bubble Riders: Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
The Aggie faithful are getting nervous. With a loss to Nebraska(whom themselves get into a reasonable discussion), TAMU is quickly sliding into bubble irrelevance. Baylor may soon join them despite a good non-conference and a potential bubble-saving win over Kansas State. Bob Knight's resignation may give Texas Tech some sympathy votes, but the Zorros are a long shot(and that's putting it mildly). Still, the conference looks good for 4 and perhaps 5 bids.
Big West
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Northridge State
Yes they were beaten by Rider in their BracketBuster matchup over the weekend, but the Matadors are still leading the conference. That may change though as Pacific and Fullerton State(Both of whom have beaten the Matadors, the latter's win came at Northridge)are still hot on their trail. Everything will be settled in Anaheim.
Next Up: Colonial to Mid-American
State of the Bubble: America East to Big East
How is your team fairing compared to others? Are there any locks that come out surprising to you? How far will Tom O'Connor and his band of bracketeers go to find an at-large? Who knows any of this? Well let me help out with a 6-part series about teams in the field, near the field, and teams losing contact with it. This is the State of the Bubble!
America East
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Maryland-Baltimore County
Struggles at both Albany and Vermont have allowed the Retrievers to lock up the outright regular season title(and the right to host the championship should they get there) already. Either way, UMBC is in a D-I postseason tourney via the NIT's access rules for RS winners.
Atlantic Coast
Bid Range: 4-6
Locked up: Duke, North Carolina
Almost there: Clemson
Bubble Riders: Maryland, Miami(FL), Wake Forest
Earlier this season there was a clear hierachy. Duke and UNC on one level, everyone else on the other. At least Clemson(Despite blowing two leads against the Heels) has been able to give it's resume some shape, and Miami is starting to do likewise. Maryland on the other hand is on the verge of squandering all it's good will with bad losses to Virginia Tech and Miami(Not to mention some weak home losses to the likes of American, Ohio and VCU). Wake Forest's campaign to win one for Skip Prosser helped it upset Duke, but could not vault it over UNC. Thursday's Terps-Deacs matchup is enormous, for the winner will likely be in the next project bracket and the loser will be close to the bubble's edge, making it unlikely that both will make, unless an ACC tournament run is made.
Atlantic Sun
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Belmont
Gardner-Webb and Mercer definitely made headlines earlier this year with their upsets, but it's the two-time defending titleists from Nashville's Music Row that has quietly ascended to the top of the ASun's hit parade. A potential championship run for the Bruins however, must be made at archrival Lipscomb's Allen Arena next week, and should the Bisons make it to the championship game, the Bruins' advantage of being the top seed is lost.
Atlantic 10
Bid Range: 1-4
Locked Up: Xavier
Bubble Riders: Dayton, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, St. Joseph's
The soft underbelly of the A-10's lower regions has gone from a blessing to a curse for our four bubble riders, in particular the Flyers who are in danger of missing the CONFERENCE tournament(This is what happens when you lose a big time player, in the Flyers' case, Chris Wright). The Rams though have it worse, losers of three straight at home. If none of the bubble riders make it out of the quarters in Atlantic City(Or make it at all in the case of the Flyers), it may be a one bid league. A huge downer from a few weeks ago, when the A-10 looked ready to gobble up 5 bids.
Big East
Bid Range: 6-9
Locked Up: Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Almost There: Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Bubble Riders: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Villanova
Is this the year the Big 16 gets nine teams into the field? The odds(purely recreational) are 65% against it, but who knows. One thing is for sure, this is a sure fire seven bid league and eight is very possible too. One bubble rider to keep an eye on is Syracuse, who have a top ten rank in SOS, but may not finish at .500 in conference. Did Jim Boeheim's decision to beef-up his non-conference slate while maintaining a home-heavy sked payoff? Stay tuned.
Next up: Big Sky to Big West
America East
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Maryland-Baltimore County
Struggles at both Albany and Vermont have allowed the Retrievers to lock up the outright regular season title(and the right to host the championship should they get there) already. Either way, UMBC is in a D-I postseason tourney via the NIT's access rules for RS winners.
Atlantic Coast
Bid Range: 4-6
Locked up: Duke, North Carolina
Almost there: Clemson
Bubble Riders: Maryland, Miami(FL), Wake Forest
Earlier this season there was a clear hierachy. Duke and UNC on one level, everyone else on the other. At least Clemson(Despite blowing two leads against the Heels) has been able to give it's resume some shape, and Miami is starting to do likewise. Maryland on the other hand is on the verge of squandering all it's good will with bad losses to Virginia Tech and Miami(Not to mention some weak home losses to the likes of American, Ohio and VCU). Wake Forest's campaign to win one for Skip Prosser helped it upset Duke, but could not vault it over UNC. Thursday's Terps-Deacs matchup is enormous, for the winner will likely be in the next project bracket and the loser will be close to the bubble's edge, making it unlikely that both will make, unless an ACC tournament run is made.
Atlantic Sun
Likely Bids: 1
Likely Winner: Belmont
Gardner-Webb and Mercer definitely made headlines earlier this year with their upsets, but it's the two-time defending titleists from Nashville's Music Row that has quietly ascended to the top of the ASun's hit parade. A potential championship run for the Bruins however, must be made at archrival Lipscomb's Allen Arena next week, and should the Bisons make it to the championship game, the Bruins' advantage of being the top seed is lost.
Atlantic 10
Bid Range: 1-4
Locked Up: Xavier
Bubble Riders: Dayton, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, St. Joseph's
The soft underbelly of the A-10's lower regions has gone from a blessing to a curse for our four bubble riders, in particular the Flyers who are in danger of missing the CONFERENCE tournament(This is what happens when you lose a big time player, in the Flyers' case, Chris Wright). The Rams though have it worse, losers of three straight at home. If none of the bubble riders make it out of the quarters in Atlantic City(Or make it at all in the case of the Flyers), it may be a one bid league. A huge downer from a few weeks ago, when the A-10 looked ready to gobble up 5 bids.
Big East
Bid Range: 6-9
Locked Up: Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame
Almost There: Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Bubble Riders: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Villanova
Is this the year the Big 16 gets nine teams into the field? The odds(purely recreational) are 65% against it, but who knows. One thing is for sure, this is a sure fire seven bid league and eight is very possible too. One bubble rider to keep an eye on is Syracuse, who have a top ten rank in SOS, but may not finish at .500 in conference. Did Jim Boeheim's decision to beef-up his non-conference slate while maintaining a home-heavy sked payoff? Stay tuned.
Next up: Big Sky to Big West
Monday, February 25, 2008
Bracket Watch for February 25th
Note: * denotes a Bubble Rider(that is a team that has at best a 2/3rds chance to make the field as an at-large.
Final Four Pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. Midwest(3)
SOUTH Region
North Little Rock
(1)Memphis(CUSA) vs. (16)Opening Round Winner
Opening Round: American(Patriot) vs. Alabama State(SWAC)
(8)Kent State(Mid-American)* vs. (9)Texas A&M*
Denver
(4)Indiana vs. (13)Oral Roberts(Summit)
(5)Vanderbilt vs. (12)Villanova*
Anaheim
(2)Stanford vs. (15)Northridge State(Big West)
(7)Gonzaga vs. (10)Massachusetts*
Omaha
(3)Kansas vs. (14)Maryland-Baltimore County(America East)
(6)Michigan State vs. (11)West Virginia*
WEST Region
Anaheim
(1)UCLA(Pac-10) vs. (16)Portland State(Big Sky)
(8)Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. (9)Arkansas*
Birmingham
(4)Connecticut vs. (13)Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial)
(5)Butler(Horizon) vs. (12)Cornell(Ivy)
Raleigh
(2)Duke vs. (15)Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
(7)Marquette vs. (10)South Alabama(Sun Belt)*
Omaha
(3)Wisconsin(Big Ten) vs. (14)Boise State(WAC)
(6)St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. (11)Alabama-Birmingham*
EAST Region
Birmingham
(1)Tennessee(SEC) vs. (16)Morgan State(MEAC)
(8)Kansas State vs. (9)Southern California*
Denver
(4)Drake(Missouri Valley) vs. (13)Stephen F. Austin*
(5)Notre Dame vs. (12)New Mexico
Raleigh
(2)North Carolina(ACC) vs. (15)Rider(MAAC)
(7)Arizona* vs. (10)St. Joseph's*
Tampa
(3)Georgetown vs. (14)Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
(6)Oklahoma vs. (11)Davidson(Southern)*
MIDWEST Region
North Little Rock
(1)Texas(Big 12) vs. (16)Lamar(Southland)
(8)Pittsburgh vs. (9)Miami(FL)
Tampa
(4)Purdue vs. (13)Southern Illinois*
(5)Washington State vs. (12)Kentucky*
Washington D.C.
(2)Xavier(A-10) vs. (15)Robert Morris(Northeast)
(7)Mississippi State vs. (10)Baylor*
(3)Louisville(Big East) vs. (14)Winthrop(Big South)
(6)Clemson vs. (11)Nevada-Las Vegas*
New in the field: Miami(FL), Massachusetts, Villanova, UAB, Rider, Morgan State, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, Stephen F. Austin
Out of the field: Maryland, Wake Forest, Dayton, Rhode Island, Syracuse, Siena, Norfolk State, Arizona State, Western Kentucky
Last four in the field: UAB, Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Stephen F. Austin
First four out of the field: Rhode Island, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona State
Next four out of the field: Oregon, Dayton, Illinois State, Maryland
Next four out after that: Houston, Wake Forest, George Mason, Nebraska
Also on the bubble: Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Creighton, California
Next bracket will be posted on Thursday.
Final Four Pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. Midwest(3)
SOUTH Region
North Little Rock
(1)Memphis(CUSA) vs. (16)Opening Round Winner
Opening Round: American(Patriot) vs. Alabama State(SWAC)
(8)Kent State(Mid-American)* vs. (9)Texas A&M*
Denver
(4)Indiana vs. (13)Oral Roberts(Summit)
(5)Vanderbilt vs. (12)Villanova*
Anaheim
(2)Stanford vs. (15)Northridge State(Big West)
(7)Gonzaga vs. (10)Massachusetts*
Omaha
(3)Kansas vs. (14)Maryland-Baltimore County(America East)
(6)Michigan State vs. (11)West Virginia*
WEST Region
Anaheim
(1)UCLA(Pac-10) vs. (16)Portland State(Big Sky)
(8)Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. (9)Arkansas*
Birmingham
(4)Connecticut vs. (13)Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial)
(5)Butler(Horizon) vs. (12)Cornell(Ivy)
Raleigh
(2)Duke vs. (15)Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
(7)Marquette vs. (10)South Alabama(Sun Belt)*
Omaha
(3)Wisconsin(Big Ten) vs. (14)Boise State(WAC)
(6)St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. (11)Alabama-Birmingham*
EAST Region
Birmingham
(1)Tennessee(SEC) vs. (16)Morgan State(MEAC)
(8)Kansas State vs. (9)Southern California*
Denver
(4)Drake(Missouri Valley) vs. (13)Stephen F. Austin*
(5)Notre Dame vs. (12)New Mexico
Raleigh
(2)North Carolina(ACC) vs. (15)Rider(MAAC)
(7)Arizona* vs. (10)St. Joseph's*
Tampa
(3)Georgetown vs. (14)Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
(6)Oklahoma vs. (11)Davidson(Southern)*
MIDWEST Region
North Little Rock
(1)Texas(Big 12) vs. (16)Lamar(Southland)
(8)Pittsburgh vs. (9)Miami(FL)
Tampa
(4)Purdue vs. (13)Southern Illinois*
(5)Washington State vs. (12)Kentucky*
Washington D.C.
(2)Xavier(A-10) vs. (15)Robert Morris(Northeast)
(7)Mississippi State vs. (10)Baylor*
(3)Louisville(Big East) vs. (14)Winthrop(Big South)
(6)Clemson vs. (11)Nevada-Las Vegas*
New in the field: Miami(FL), Massachusetts, Villanova, UAB, Rider, Morgan State, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, Stephen F. Austin
Out of the field: Maryland, Wake Forest, Dayton, Rhode Island, Syracuse, Siena, Norfolk State, Arizona State, Western Kentucky
Last four in the field: UAB, Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Stephen F. Austin
First four out of the field: Rhode Island, Syracuse, Florida, Arizona State
Next four out of the field: Oregon, Dayton, Illinois State, Maryland
Next four out after that: Houston, Wake Forest, George Mason, Nebraska
Also on the bubble: Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Creighton, California
Next bracket will be posted on Thursday.
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