The Saturday Setup

As I explained in yesterday's projection post, I'm not doing a full field projection today, just a rundown of how the seeds of the field would be. Before that, though, here's what happened yesterday:

In the Big East, West Virginia held off Notre Dame to secure a spot in the championship game where they'll faced Georgetown, a 78-50 conqueror of Marquette. In the ACC, the higher-seed-goes-down-to-defeat syndrome hit seeds 2 through 4, but Duke avoided it and should be heavily favored to knock off Miami(FL), an avowed enemy of the bubble. NC State is also an enemy and faces Georgia Tech, whose victory over Maryland secured it's spot. The Big Ten had 4 great finishes, kicked off by Evan Turner's last second desperation heave to lift Ohio State over hated Michigan, finished off by resillient Minnesota's OT triumph over Michigan State to help the Gophers stay in the chase. The Mountain West had one exciting finish and some officiating controversy, all in the same game. That game was San Diego State's 72-69 triumph over New Mexico, which secured the Aztecs' spot on the guest list. They'll face UNLV who beat BYU in semi #2. Chalk held up for the most part in the Atlantic 10, SEC, Pac-10, Big 12 and WAC(save for Nevada's loss to New Mexico State).

Thus it brings me to the seeds of the field; enjoy;

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
2: Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Purdue
3: Villanova, Tennessee, Georgetown, Michigan State
4: New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Temple
5: BUTLER, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Baylor
6: Maryland, Richmond, Xavier, Gonzaga
7: Brigham Young, Texas, Notre Dame, California
8: Unlv, Utep, NORTHERN IOWA, Clemson
9: Florida State, SAINT MARY'S, Marquette, Oklahoma State
10: Georgia Tech, Utah State, San Diego State, OLD DOMINION
11: Wake Forest, Missouri, Louisville, CORNELL
12: Virginia Tech, Florida, SIENA, Washington
13: Illinois, Minnesota, MURRAY STATE, OAKLAND
14: MONTANA, Akron, WOFFORD, Sam Houston State
15: Morgan State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, NORTH TEXAS
16: ETSU, ROBERT MORRIS, LEHIGH, Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

New to the field: Minnesota
Out of the field: Mississippi
Last five to make it: Virginia Tech, Florida, Washington, Illinois, Minnesota
First four on the waiting list: Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Arizona State
Next four on the waiting list: William & Mary, Seton Hall, South Florida, Memphis
The enemies: Miami(FL), NC State, Houston, New Mexico State

Bracket Watch - Hell comes to bracketville

Thursday, March 11 will go down as one of the wackiest days in college basketball history as higher seed after higher seed went down after inglorious losses in conference tourneys. In the ACC, only Georgia Tech won amongst higher seeds. In the Big East, only West Virginia won amongst the top four. In Conference USA, UTEP held serve, but the three teams below the Miners did not. In the Mid-American, both division winners(Kent State and Central Michigan) lost. In the Pacific-10, California won, Arizona State did not. Form (fortunately) held for the most part in the SEC and held up in full in the Big Ten, Big 12 and Mountain West.

As a result of all this carnage, 57 of the 65 spots in the dance are spoken for, leaving 8 for the bubble and villans of the bubble. Here's how it shook out:

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-Notre Dame vs. 9-Utep(Conference USA)
@ Spokane
4-Maryland vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-BUTLER vs. 12-San Diegon State*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Texas vs. 10-Wake Forest
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-OAKLAND
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-ROBERT MORRIS
8-California(Pacific-10) vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ Providence
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-SIENA
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-CORNELL
@ Milwaukee
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-Vermont(America East)
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Missouri
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-MONTANA
6-Marquette vs. 11-Georgia Tech*

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Clemson
@ San Jose
4-Georgetown vs. 13-Washington*
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Illinois
@ Buffalo
2-West Virginia(Big East) vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ New Orleans
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Brigham Young vs. 11-Florida*

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening round: WINTHROP vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff(Southwestern)
8-Nevada-Las Vegas vs. 9-SAINT MARY'S
@ Spokane
4-Michigan State vs. 13-MURRAY STATE
5-Baylor vs. 12-Mississippi*
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-OLD DOMINION
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-Akron(Mid-American)
6-Xavier vs. 11-Louisville*

Procedural moves: Oklahoma State(up 1), Virginia Tech(down 1)

New to the field: Akron, Illinois, Washington
Out of the field: Arizona State, Kent State, Memphis

Last four in the field: San Diego State, Mississippi, Illinois, Washington
First four in line: Rhode Island, Minnesota, Arizona State, Memphis
Next four in line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Tulsa
Also in line: Saint Louis, William & Mary, Southern Mississippi, South Florida, Nevada, Miami(FL)

Please note: I will not be doing a full bracket Tomorrow, as I will be going to the Minnesota state high school boy's hockey championships. I will be doing, however, a seeding of the top 16 teams.

Bracket Watch - A bored Thursday Projection

Sayonara South Florida. So Long Seton Hall. Those two teams had opprotunities to make their way into the field of 65 yesterday, and both proceeded to look lethargic in doing so. The Bulls fell flat against a Georgetown team it had defeated in Washington a few weeks back, whilst the Pirates were looted and pillaged by Notre Dame to the tune of a 12 point loss.

Elsewhere, Missouri got embarrased by Nebraska, 75-60, which may give the committee a convienent excuse to leave them out if it comes down to the Tigers and maybe say...William & Mary. In terms of Auto Bids, Anthony Johnson literally clinched Montana's bid via the Big Sky championship by scoring the Grizzlies' last 21 points in overcoming Weber State, 66-65 in Ogden. In the Northeast title bout, Robert Morris proceeded to become a defensive juggernaut and held off Quinnipiac by a 52-50 decision.

And to the brackets we go.

Notes: * denotes a bubble team. CAPS indicate team has won the automatic bid.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-Marquette vs. 9-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA)
@ Spokane
4-Maryland vs. 13-SIENA
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-San Diego State*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Clemson vs. 10-Missouri
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Richmond vs. 11-CORNELL

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Louisville
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)*

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-ROBERT MORRIS
8-California(Pacific-10) vs. 9-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
4-Baylor vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Vermont(America East)
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-OAKLAND
6-Texas vs. 11-Florida*

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff(Southwestern)
8-Florida State vs. 9-SAINT MARY'S
@ Spokane
4-Michigan State vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-BUTLER vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-MONTANA
7-Xavier vs. 10-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-WOFFORD
6-Wake Forest vs. 11-Notre Dame

New to the field: Montana, Robert Morris
Out of the field: Quinnipiac, Weber State
Procedural moves: Clemson(up 1), Richmond(up 1), Virginia Tech(up 1), Brigham Young(down 1), Marquette(down 1), Utah State(down 1)

Last four in the field: San Diego State, Memphis, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four in line: Illinois, Washington, Uab, Mississippi State
Next four in line: Dayton, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Saint Louis
Also in line: William & Mary, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, South Florida

Bracket Watch - It's All Downhill From Here

So far, it has mostly been chalk that has ruled in the conference tournaments. Last night was no exception. Butler continued to aid the good luck hopes of bubblers everywhere, routing Wright State 70-45 in the Horizon championship, Oakland cruised to a 76-64 win against IUPUI to reach the summit of the Summit, and North Texas knocked off Troy 66-63 in the Sun Belt final(OK the Mean Green were second seeded, but you get the point).

All however was not well with a few bubblers trying to hang on. Connecticut's plunge from top seed to non-factor on the bubble is complete, by way of a 73-51 late-game rout by St. John's, while Charlotte, trying to gain the fringe was denied by Massachusetts in a 59-56 decision.

The result of this carnage is the bracket is still little changed from yesterday.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Notre Dame
@ Spokane
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-BUTLER vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Texas vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-OAKLAND
6-Xavier vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-Baylor vs. 12-San Diego State
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
7-Louisville vs. 10-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Vermont(America East)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Marquette
@ San Jose
4-Maryland vs. 13-SIENA
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Clemson
@ Jacksonville
3-Michigan State vs. 14-WOFFORD
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-SAINT MARY'S
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Florida*

New to the field: North Texas
Out: Troy

Procedural moves: Cornell(up 1), Notre Dame(up 1), Texas-El Paso(up 1), Clemson(down 1), Georgia Tech(down 1), Oklahoma State(down 1)

Last four in the field: Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four left out: Illinois, Washington, South Florida, Uab
Next four left out: Rhode Island Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota
Also on board: Saint Louis, Seton Hall, Marshall, Wichita State, Nevada

Bracket Watch - Chalky Tuesday

Last night the chalk held up in 3 of the 4 games that decided bids for the NCAA, but not without some tense moments. In the Colonial final in Richmond, Old Dominion held the lead for most of the game, but William & Mary never gave up the ghost until late. Siena had to rally from 15 points down to force overtime vs. Fairfield in the MAAC final on it's homecourt. The Saints subsequently won it by 7. Wofford exploded to a 15 point lead over Appalachian State in the Southern final in Charlotte, but the roles reversed as the Mountaineers started to reel the Terriers in. It was, however, all in vain as Wofford scored a 56-51 win for it's first Big Dance invite. On the other hand, Gonzaga could not take down the steely resolve of Saint Mary's in Las Vegas for the West Coast title. With the score 46-43, Gaels center Omar Samhan was whistled for a technical foul. From that point onward, the Gaels went on a 35-19 binge to end it, and to insure that they wouldn't sweat it out on Sunday. Where does this all bring us? Read on.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Notre Dame
@ Spokane
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Troy(Sun Belt)
7-Texas vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Xavier vs. 11-Florida*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-Baylor vs. 12-San Diego State
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
7-Louisville vs. 10-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Vermont(America East)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Marquette
@ San Jose
4-Maryland vs. 13-SIENA
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Clemson
@ Jacksonville
3-Michigan State vs. 14-WOFFORD
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-SAINT MARY'S
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

Procedural moves: Cornell(up 1), Notre Dame(up 1), Texas-El Paso(up 1), Clemson(down 1), Georgia Tech(down 1), Oklahoma State(down 1)

Last four in the field: Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four left out: Illinois, Washington, Uab, Rhode Island
Next four left out: South Florida, Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota
Also on board: Saint Louis, Connecticut, Seton Hall, Marshall, Wichita State, Nevada

Should there be any "upsets" tonight, here's how I would seed them:
Wright State(Horizon): 13-15
IUPUI(Summit): 14-15
North Texas(Sun Belt): 15-16

Bracket Watch - Time to get serious

The frivolousness of the season is done. Now it's time for teams all across the bubble to decide whether or not they want to play on the biggest tournament stage in the world. And after this past week, many of them want to sit out the big dance out.

From now until Selection Sunday, I'll be posting daily projections(except for Saturday) of the field. And even on Saturday, I'll post a Sweet 16 seed list. Also note, all teams that have qualified for the big dance are in CAPS for the duration of the projections and all teams that I've deemed to be on the bubble are asterisked*.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Notre Dame
@ Spokane
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Troy(Sun Belt)
7-Texas vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Xavier vs. 11-Florida*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-Baylor vs. 12-San Diego State
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
7-Louisville vs. 10-Old Dominion(Colonial)*
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Vermont(America East)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Marquette
@ San Jose
4-Maryland vs. 13-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Clemson
@ Jacksonville
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Wofford(Southern)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner:
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-Nevada-Las Vegas*
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-St. Mary's*

Procedural moves: Cornell(up 1), Notre Dame(up 1), Texas-El Paso(up 1), Clemson(down 1), Georgia Tech(down 1), Oklahoma State(down 1)

New to the field: Vermont, East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Arizona State, Mississippi
Out of the field: Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Rhode Island, Coastal Carolina, Illinois

Last four in the field: Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four left out: Illinois, Washington, Uab, Rhode Island
Next four left out: South Florida, Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota
Also on board: Saint Louis, Connecticut, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Marshall, Wichita State, Nevada

Now there are four bids up for grabs tonight. Should there be any upsets, here are the seeds the upsetters would likely get:

Appalachian State: 14-16
Fairfield: 13-14
St. Mary's: 9-10
William & Mary: 11-12