Saturday Canvas

Pretty much looks 5-6 bids are still available, but could shrink depending on who wins automatic bids. One spot was lost when Duquesne upset Dayton and Temple beat Xavier in Atlantic 10 semis. Baylor, Southern California, Tulsa, Auburn/Mississippi State and Nevada may still stun their way into the field. With that in mind here are the last 8 in and out in my mind:

Next four from the cutline up: Minnesota, Dayton, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
Last four in the field: Penn State, Creighton, San Diego State, Maryland
First four left out: St. Mary's, Auburn, Arizona, Temple(if they lose the Atlantic 10 final)
Next four left out: Utah State(if they lose the WAC final), Providence, New Mexico, Davidson

The top 4 seed lines(something I had promised to do in previous posts):

South region(1)
1 North Carolina
2 Connecticut
3 UCLA
4 Illinois
West region(4)
1 Michigan State
2 Memphis
3 Villanova
4 Kansas
Midwest region(2)
1 Pittsburgh
2 Missouri
3 Wake Forest
4 Louisiana State
East region(3)
1 Louisville
2 Duke
3 Oklahoma
4 Syracuse

On tap for Sunday, one bracket early, the last one after the early finals are done.

About Friday the 13th in BracketWatchLand

ACC
Close, but no pez for Virginia Tech as North Carolina(even without Ty Lawson) held on to win 79-76. The Hokies must still be in consideration, with road wins over Clemson and Wake Forest, but their lack of OOC heft will hurt. In the 2nd game, Florida State deny Georgia Tech a 2nd straight upset with a go-ahead score with 7 seconds left.

Big Ten
The only way Minnesota could find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble was if they were blown out by Michigan State. Whilst the Spartans did win, it was only 64-56, with the Gophers in it throughout the game. Ohio State, seen by some to be still on the bubble, firmed up their status by nipping Wisconsin 61-57.

SEC
LSU put Kentucky's bid hopes to permanent sleep, 64-58.

Bracket Watch - Friday

Unlike a lot of you, I did not see the last 4 overtimes that UConn and Syracuse played, but this much is true. The Huskies have little hope of a #1 seed right now. The loss opened up the door for Michigan State to move up to the top line. As for the rest of the bracket.....

Projections through Thursday night's games

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Minneapolis
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-WESTERN KENTUCKY
5-Texas vs. 12-Ohio State*
@Kansas City
2-Missouri/Big 12 vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Arizona State vs. 10-South Carolina*
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-ROBERT MORRIS
6-Purdue vs. 11-St. Mary's

West region
@Minneapolis
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Syracuse vs. 12-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
7-Clemson vs. 10-SIENA
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-Texas A&M*

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Boston College vs. 9-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTH DAKOTA STATE
5-GONZAGA vs. 12-Penn State*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Utah vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Kansas City
3-Oklahoma vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Creighton*

East region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Butler vs. 9-Michigan
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-San Diego State*
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-PORTLAND STATE
7-Marquette vs. 10-Dayton*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Illinois vs. 11-CLEVELAND STATE

Teams moved up for placement purposes: Cleveland State, St. Mary's, South Carolina
Teams moved down for placement purposes: Ohio State, Penn State, Texas A&M
New to the field: Creighton, San Diego State, St. Mary's

Last four in the field: Penn State, Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego State
First four left out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Arizona, Nevada-Las Vegas
Next four left out: Auburn, New Mexico, Maryland, Davidson
Also on board: Duquesne, Rhode Island, Temple, Providence, Baylor, Kansas State, Tulsa, Illinois State, Southern California, Kentucky

As I have said recently, there will be no formal projection tomorrow as I will be attending the Minnesota State High School Boy's Hockey Championships. There will be a projection of the top 4 seed lines instead.

About Thursday

By conference so I can keep things in order(updated as of 9:23 PM CT):

Atlantic Coast
We can boot Miami(FL) from all bubble discussion after Virginia Tech dropped the Ibis 65-47. Clemson's seed will drop after letting Georgia Tech win 86-81. That note that said Maryland was playing itself out? Skip that, the Terps toppled NC State.

Big East
Providence is really hurting now, as the Friars lose to Louisville 73-55. Villanova almost let a 16-point lead slip away into the clutches of Marquette, but they escape in the final moments with a 1-point win. Pittsburgh's chances of gaining a #1 seed were hurt significantlly by losing to West Virginia.

Big Ten
Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State all took care of bidness in the 1st round in Indy. Of the three, the Gophers had the toughest test, pulling away from Northwestern in the final 3 minutes.

Big 12
Does anyone want to win this tourney? Kansas fell to Baylor, who now must be let back onto the fringe, whilst hurting the Jayhawks' top line hopes and Oklahoma let Oklahoma State escape with a win, ending the Sooners #1 quest. Meanwhile, Kansas State drops off after losing to Texas.

Conference USA
Memphis had trouble putting away Tulane, winning only by 10 points. UAB had to go to overtime to defeat Southern Miss. Tulsa had no such problem in their dispatching of Rice.

Mountain West
Brigham Young had it's hands full trying to eliminate Air Force, winning only by 11. San Diego State ran UNLV out of the tourney on the Rebels' home court. As of this update, Utah is losing to Texas Christian.

Pacific-10
Arizona State may have just ended Arizona's long streak of tourney appearances, winning by 12. Washington pulled away from Stanford late. California was trailing Southern California by 15, but have since rallied to trail by 5.

Southeastern
Kentucky's win did nothing to improve their standing. They must beat LSU tomorrow to have any chance. Same for Mississippi State. The real action takes place tomorrow.

Western Athletic
Utah State cruises to a win over hapless Fresno State.

Bracket Watch - Thursday

Unlike the last two brackets this week, this one is totally new and updated through Ben Hanowski Night(Wednesday). There are plenty of big bubble battles today, which will definitely impact the bracket tomorrow.

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Ohio State*
@Boise
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Syracuse vs. 12-WESTERN KENTUCKY
@Kansas City
2-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Arizona State vs. 10-SIENA
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-ROBERT MORRIS
6-Purdue vs. 11-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

West region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-California vs. 9-Butler
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Minneapolis
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Marquette vs. 10-Boston College*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-Texas vs. 11-Penn State*

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Michigan*
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTH DAKOTA STATE
5-GONZAGA vs. 12-New Mexico*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-CORNELL
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Boise
3-Oklahoma vs. 14-PORTLAND STATE
6-Utah vs. 11-South Carolina*

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Minneapolis
4-Missouri vs. 13-CLEVELAND STATE
5-Clemson vs. 12-Arizona*
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 10-Dayton*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
6-Illinois vs. 11-Texas A&M*

Last four in the field: South Carolina, Nevada-Las Vegas, New Mexico, Arizona
First four left out: Creighton, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Miami(FL)
Next four left out: Florida, Virginia Tech, Providence, Kansas State
Also on board: Maryland, Rhode Island, Temple, Northwestern, Tulsa, UAB, Auburn, Davidson

Next projection: Friday

Bracket Watch - Wednesday

Another day, another burst bubble. This time it's Creighton's(again).

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Utah vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Boise
4-Marquette vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Penn State*
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Illinois vs. 10-Dayton*
@Minneapolis
3-Villanova vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Butler vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West Region
@Dayton
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-SIENA
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

Midwest region
@Philadelphia
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Boston College*
@Boise
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Utah State/Western Athletic*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-RADFORD
7-West Virginia vs. 10-New Mexico*
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Purdue vs. 11-Arizona*

East region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Arizona State vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Portland
4-Missouri vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Clemson vs. 12-CLEVELAND STATE
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Portland State/Big Sky
7-Texas vs. 10-Michigan*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina*

New to the field: Cleveland State

Last four in the field: South Carolina, Penn State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Arizona
First four left out: Creighton, St. Mary's, Florida, Miami(FL)
Next four left out: Providence, Kansas State, Maryland, Auburn

Note-The following teams are not in the projection yet, but will be if they win their conference tourneys tonight(along with their projected seeds):
Mount St. Mary's(16)
Montana State(Opening Round)

The next projection will be on Thursday

Tuesday Night update

North Dakota State rallied from as much as 14 points down to beat Oakland 66-64 in the Summit League final in Sioux Falls, giving the Bison their first Big Dance invite in the first year they could receive one. Currently as I type, Cleveland State is leading Butler in the Horizon final(much to the horror of the bubble) and Western Kentucky is ahead of South Alabama in the Sun Belt final.

Earlier, Cincinnati and Georgetown had their remote chances of at-large consideration end in the first round of the Big East shindig. Notre Dame survived their encounter with Rutgers and will battle West Virginia tomorrow.

UPDATE: Someone's bubble has burst. Cleveland State held off Butler 56-54 for the Horizon League championship. That means when the next update comes tomorrow morning, Creighton will be on the outside looking in, again.

Bracket Watch - Tuesday

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Utah vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Boise
4-Butler/Horizon vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Marquette vs. 12-Penn State*
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Illinois vs. 10-Dayton*
@Minneapolis
3-Villanova vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West Region
@Dayton
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-SIENA
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/BIg Sky
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH

Midwest region
@Philadelphia
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Boston College*
@Boise
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Utah State/Western Athletic*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-RADFORD
7-West Virginia vs. 10-New Mexico*
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Purdue vs. 11-Arizona*

East region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. CHATTANOOGA
8-Arizona State vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Portland
4-Missouri vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Clemson vs. 12-Creighton*
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Texas vs. 10-Michigan*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-Binghamton/America East
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina*

New to the field: Creighton, Chattanoogs

Last four in the field: Penn State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Arizona, Creighton
First four left out: St. Mary's, Florida, Miami(FL), Providence
Next four left out: Kansas State, Maryland, Auburn, Tulsa

Note-The following teams are not in the projection yet, but will be if they win their conference tourneys tonight(along with their projected seeds):
Cleveland State(12-14)
Oakland(15-16)
South Alabama(14-16)

The next projection will be on Wednesday.

Monday Night Update

Gonzaga just crushed St. Mary's 83-58 in the West Coast final. The loss put the Gaels in the same boat as Creighton in which they had a very bad loss right before the tournament. As of right now, the Bluejays are slightly ahead of the Gaels in the pecking order and will move back into the field tomorrow morning.

Also, VCU(Colonial) and Chattanooga(Southern) have claimed their conference's auto bids. The Mocs are 18-16 and more than likely headed straight for the opening round game(or as Kyle Wheliston calls it the Notorious P.I.G(The name no doubt stolen from the St. Paul Saints, who once had a live pig mascot named Notorious P.I.G(A.K.A Piggy Smalls))).) North Dakota State has won their Summit League semifinal over Southern Utah and Western Kentucky will play for the Sun Belt title, having disposed of North Texas.

Bracket Watch - And so the countdown begins

We're now less than a week before Mike Silve and the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee will bear the piece of art known as the bracket, and teams around the country are gearing up for a intense week of games to determine the canvas. Some are rising to the challenge(Michigan, Auburn), others are faltering towards the brink(Minnesota, Dayton), others have lost the plot completely(Davidson, Cincinnati, Maryland).

What will the actual art look like? Now this is where bracketologists of all stripes come in. To examine and guess what really goes on inside the ten minds of the committee. How we do it varies widely(and wildly). Some, like myself, use the WWTCDN? method, examining the actual facts thus far. Others make predictions of what will happen. Some do both with various degrees of balance.

Now to the projections(through Sunday Night) with a few new twists:
1-Teams in the field are given the CAPS treatment.
2-Bubble teams are listed with asterisks* like so.

Final Four pairings
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-RADFORD
8-Utah vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Boise
4-Butler/Horizon vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Marquette vs. 12-Penn State*
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Bowling Green/Mid-American
7-Illinois vs. 10-Dayton*
@Minneapolis
3-Villanova vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West Region
@Dayton
1-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Florida State vs. 13-College of Charleston/Southern
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic*
@Philadelphia
2-Connecticut vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Minnesota*
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/BIg Sky
6-Brigham Young/Mountain West vs. 11-St. Mary's*
Note: St. Mary's and Minnesota switched seeds for geographical purposes

Midwest region
@Philadelphia
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Boston College*
@Boise
4-Ucla vs. 13-NORTHERN IOWA
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Utah State/Western Athletic*
@Greensboro
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-West Virginia vs. 10-New Mexico*
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-CORNELL
6-Purdue vs. 11-Arizona*

East region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening Round: MOREHEAD STATE vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Arizona State vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Portland
4-Missouri vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Clemson vs. 12-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Texas vs. 10-Michigan*
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina*

New to the field: East Tennessee State, Michigan. Morehead State, Arizona, College of Charleston

Last four in the field: Penn State, South Carolina, Nevada-Las Vegas, Arizona
First four left out: Creighton, Florida, San Diego State, Providence
Next four left out: Maryland, Kansas State, Auburn, Miami(FL)
Also on board: Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Northwestern, UAB, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Niagara, Illinois State, Southern California

Note-Here are the seed ranges for those teams not listed in the bracket but would be should they win tonight
George Mason: 13-14
Niagara: 12-13
Chattanooga: 16