Thursday, January 28, 2010

The State of the Bubble - Part 3

To view the first two parts of this series, click this link for part 1 and this link for part 2.(Note: will have links up soon)

Likely bid range: 1-3
Bubble riders: Arizona State, California, Washington, Washington State
It is so bad for this league, it would be a complete shock if it got an at-large team to sneak in, let alone 2. Southern California would have a good chance, if it wasn't for the fact they're sitting out the postseason, thanks in large part to O.J. Mayo's transgressions. The only hope the league has is Dan Guererro's salesmanship(As the AD at UCLA and the chair of the Division I Men's Basketball committee, he has to walk a very fine line between salesmanship and huckstering).

Patriot League
Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Lafayette, Lehigh
A very wide open league, with no one really standing out. Army had the best OOC, but the Black Knights are fading away already.

Likely bid range: 4-7
Lock: Kentucky
Close to a lock: Mississippi, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bubble riders: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State
A year after only seeing three of it's teams compete in the Tourney, the SEC looks to improve it's bid allocation. Four teams are a guarantee, five to seven is also likely for the Kings of Football.

Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: College of Charleston, Western Carolina
Even with the two contenders having stellar wins(the Cougars over North Carolina, the Catamounts over Louisville in Freedom Hall), the league is too weak at the bottom end to allow for a second bid to become available.

Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Sam Houston State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
The West division of this league is home to it's two remaining unbeatens. It's not impossible to see these two teams meet for a third time in the final of the conference tourney.

Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Jackson State, Prairie View A&M, Texas Southern
An exciting race is brewing in SWAC country, but regardless of who wins, the winner will be in Dayton for the Opening Round game, likely as the 65th seed. A remarkable stat about UAPB is that they did not play a true home game this season until Janurary 16th.

Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: IUPUI, Oakland, South Dakota State
By all rights, the Golden Grizzlies should be dominating the leagues, but neither the Jaguars nor the Jackrabbits will go down in vain, Look for SDSU to have a massive edge in support at the conference tourney in Sioux Falls.

Sun Belt
Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Arkansas State, Denver, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers actually had aspirations of an at-large candidacy, but falling to 4-4 in the conference(as of last night) have destroyed that chance. Still another wide open battle that won't be settled until the final week of play.

West Coast
Likely bid range: 1-2
Lock: Gonzaga
Bubble rider: St. Mary's
Could St. Mary's get shafted again by the committee? The Gaels hope not, but after failing again to beat the Zags, it's certainly a possibility. Portland had a decent start to the year, but is no longer in contention.

Western Athletic
Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Louisiana Tech, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah State
Could be another barn burner in the WAC, with all these teams having similar resumes. And conversely, no chance at securing an at-large berth.


  1. Does St. Marys need a win over Gonzaga to grab an at large? How do you like the Gaels chances?

  2. I think the Gaels need to score the upset in a few weeks if they want to have a chance at an at-large. Without it, the percentages are about 10-15%. Even with an upset, it improves to only a push.

  3. Howard, did you watch any of that georgetown-duke game. duke's defense was non existent as the hoyas kept getting layups and wide open shots. why is duke always ranked so high despite poor defensive play?

  4. This is a great site for the basketball fan. thank you for the info. how do you feel about uconn's tourney chances? they played a strong ooc schedule but only got the 1 strong win over Texas. They have struggled in conference play. will the Huskies be in your next projection. thanks and keep up the excellent work.

  5. Joel, I was at Twins Fest at the Metrodome early on Saturday, so I didn't get to see alot of Duke-Georgetown, but of the portion I did see, the Blue Devils will have a very tough time in the tourney if they get into foul trouble. Particularly if they run into a guard-oriented offense. As for why they're always rated high, it's like that for other highly-rated teams with a strong tradition, tradition trumps weakness. If it weren't for the fact that the 3rd-5th seed lines weren't getting so muddled, I'd move down the Blue Devils.

    For anonymous, after losing to Marquette, I find it very difficult to keep the Huskies in the field(I did so a few weeks ago, but put them back in after the upset of Texas). Only stumbles by everyone else around the cut line are keeping them in at this point, but that could change by tomorrow.