Wednesday, January 27, 2010

The State of the Bubble - Part 2

If you missed the first part of the State of the Bubble series, Click here on this link:

Horizon League
Likely bid range: 1-2
Close to lock: Butler
Also in the mix: Green Bay
The only way the Bulldogs end up with an at-large bid is if they don't win the conference tournament. But since Butler is likely to be the host, the chance is small, although you could have said it last year and Cleveland State ended up proving the theory wrong.

Ivy League
Likely bid range: 1-2
Bubble riders: Cornell, Harvard
An at-large team? From the Ivy League? Yes, it's possible for this league to record score an at-large bid, but it has to fall like this:
(1) Cornell and Harvard go 13-1 in league play.
(2) Harvard must win the one-game playoff to decide the automatic bid.
(3) Cornell must hope that there are no bid stealers anywhere.
It' s a longshot at best, but it could happen.

Metro Atlantic
Likely bid range: 1-2
Bubble riders: Siena, Fairfield
The Saints could not take advantage of their OOC schedule to build their resume(only their Bracket Buster game is left), leaving the Albany area school to resort to gunning for a perfect MAAC record and close loss in the tourney final to give it a fallback. But since the Saints are hosting it at Times-Union Arena, any loss in the final will affect it in the RPI ratings.

Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Akron, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State
The MAC has regressed as a basketball conference to the point where the best seed that these four could hope for is a 13 seed.

Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Morgan State, Bethune-Cookman
With the toughest part of the MEAC schedule out of the way, look for the Bears to coast to a top seed in the conference tournament in Winston-Salem. The Rattlers were right on Morgan's tail until Monday when they lost by three to Howard in D.C.

Missouri Valley
Likely bid range: 1-2
Close to a lock: Northern Iowa
Bubble riders: Illinois State, Wichita State
The Panthers have no bad losses(not after Boston College beat Clemson last night), but they have no good wins either. They should still be to the good side of the cut line if they falter in St. Louis. The Shockers(even with a win of UNI at home) and Redbirds have no such luxury.

Mountain West
Likely bid range: 2-4
Lock: BYU
Close to a lock: New Mexico
Bubble riders: Nevada-Las Vegas, San Diego State
The Cougars, currently 20-1, are aiming for a protected seed and a likely placement in San Jose, whilst the Lobos are using their excellent start to the season to good use. Those two meet tonight in the Pit. Beyond them, both the Rebels and Aztecs will have their supporters, but both have flaws that need to be corrected.

Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Long Island, Quinnipiac, Robert Morris
The winner of this conference will likely be a sacrificial lamb to a #1 seed, possibly it will have to play in the Opening Round at Dayton. A shame, because this maybe one of the more competitive races out there.

Ohio Valley
Likely number of bids: 1
Contenders: Murray State, Morehead State
Doesn't seem long ago that the Racers were in the NCAA tourney. But 2004 seems like ancient times to the Murray faithful. Of course, the Eagles will have something to say about, both in February in Morehead and possibly in the conference tournament in Nashville.

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