Monday, February 15, 2010

Bracket Watch - Better late than never

My apologies for being a bit late today, but I'm currently posting from a rather old computer. The machine that I had been using, an MSNTV2, finally died after five and a half years of use. This forced me to post last Friday's projection somewhere else. Fortunately, I'm expecting a new one to arrive this Friday, but for now, I'm down in my basement posting this. Without more ado, here are the latest projections(through Sunday's games).

Final four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)
8-California(Pacific-10) vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Florida State
@ Buffalo
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Xavier vs. 10-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Maryland vs. 11-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA)

West region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Lehigh(Patriot) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Clemson
4-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 13-Northeastern(Colonial)
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
@ Jacksonville
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Stony Brook(America East)
7-Richmond(Atlantic 10) vs. 10-Missouri
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Baylor vs. 11-UAB

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
8-Texas A&M vs. 9-Rhode Island
@ San Jose
4-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 13-Louisville
5-Wake Forest vs. 12-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Charlotte
@ Providence
3-Georgetown vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Illinois vs. 11-Cornell(Ivy)

South region

@ Providence
1-Villanova(Big East) vs. 16-Robert Morris(Northeast)
8-Georgia Tech vs. 9-Old Dominion
@ New Orleans
4-Texas vs. 13-College of Charleston(Southern)
5-Tennessee vs. 12-Dayton
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Northern Iowa(Missouri Valley) vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Temple vs. 11-Marquette

Up a seed: Maryland(should be a 7), Richmond(should be an 8), Old Dominion(should be a 10), Murray State(should be a 13)
Down a seed: Brigham Young(should be a 6), Georgia Tech(should be a 7), Virginia Tech(should be a 9), Louisville(should be a 12)

Last four in the field: Florida State, Dayton, Louisville, Mississippi
First four left out: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Mississippi State, Washington
Next four left out: St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Arizona State, Florida
Also on the list: St. John's, Northwestern, Tulsa, Memphis, Virginia, Saint Louis, Texas Tech, Virginia Commonwealth, South Carolina, South Florida, Marshall, Wichita State

Moving in: Louisville, Oklahoma State, Lehigh, Mississippi
Moving out: South Florida, Navy, Florida, Mississippi State


  1. How many ACC wins does Florida State need to earn an at large bid?

  2. Do you strictly look at Va. Tech's gaudy record, or does the fact that they only have 1 quality win (Clemson) come under consideration? I don't think VT should be rewarded for playing a very easy non-conference schedule. They only have 1 win over a team in brackket projections.

  3. Howard, Could you see Ohio State or Purdue getting a number 1 seed? Who do think will win the Big Ten title?

  4. do you think siena has any chance to make it if they lose in conference tourney? Or will the big name schools get all the at large invitations?

  5. Georgia Tech has been a bad road team and is under 500 in conference play. Are the Yellow Jackets in danger of missing the field?

  6. Couple of quick hitters for those who want answers:

    1st anonymous, I believe that the Seminoles need to get to 9-7 in ACC play, plus a win in the ACC tournament, to be in excellent shape for a bid.

    2nd anonymous, Do you think Wake Forest isn't an NCAA team? Well VT just beat them tonight(coming back in the 2nd half no less). I see the Hokies getting to 11-5 in the ACC, that should be enough to get an at-large, and I'm in agreement with Bracketology 101's assessment that they could be a single-digit seed.

    Vikings 51, Whoever wins the Big Ten outright and wins the conference tournament should be in contention for a top seed, but Duke and whoever finishes 2nd in the Big East are, IMO, likely to be ahead of them in the pecking order.

    3rd anonymous, I don't see Siena has a chance at an at-large after losing at Niagara last Friday night.

    4th anonymous, I put the Yellow Jackets' odds of an at-large bid at 55-45 in favor of getting in.

    Note: I'll have a blind resume comparison up tomorrow.

  7. It wouldn't let me reply in the Woody Woodpecker thread. I think team 2 is Washington and UNLV team 1.

  8. Aside from winning the Conference USA tournament, does Memphis have a shot at getting an at large if they go 4-1 in their last 5 games?

  9. does Utah State have a chance to get in with an at large?