Bracket Watch '11 - Four Days to Selection Sunday

In terms of my projections(and of others), a bid opened up last night as a result of Butler's domination of Milwaukee in the Horizon League final. But realistically, no one expected the Panthers to do the deed three times against the unflustered Bulldogs, whose reaction to the win was exactly the same as a regular season game(Heck, I'm not sure that a single net was cut into), very ho-hum, another game another win. Also last night, Princeton dominated Penn in the second half to force a one-game playoff with Harvard on Yale's home court, Oakland cruised in the second half to down Oral Roberts for the summit of the Summit, and UALR's cinderella run through the Sun Belt ended with a win against North Texas. The play of the game was Solomon Bozman's game winning three-ball in the closing seconds, capping a 6-1 run in the last 17 seconds.

Amongst the big boys, Villanova is in huge trouble, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory in a 70-69 loss to South Florida. They're still in for now, but it would not be out of the realm of possibility for the Wildcats to miss the big dance.

With yesterday out of the way, here's how the projected field stacks up:

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four
Tuesday: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech; McNeese State(Southland) vs. UALR
Wednesday: Clemson vs. Colorado; Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/UNC ASHEVILLE
8-George Mason vs. 9-Villanova
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Michigan State
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-MOREHEAD STATE
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-BUTLER
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Arizona vs. 11-Boston College*

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-McNeese State/UALR
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Illinois
@ Tucson
4-Kentucky vs. 13-BELMONT
5-Kansas State vs. 12-Richmond*
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-SAINT PETER'S
7-Georgetown vs. 10-Washington
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-GONZAGA

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Northern Colorado(Big Sky)
8-Unlv vs. 9-Tennessee
@ Denver
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Alabama/Virginia Tech
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-Temple vs. 10-Michigan*
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Uab(Conference USA)*

Southeast region
@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-OLD DOMINION vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Connecticut vs. 12-Clemson*/Colorado*
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Ucla vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Missouri vs. 11-St. Mary's*

New to the field: Virginia Tech, UALR
Leaving the field: Milwaukee, North Texas

Last four in the field(by seed list): Alabama, Clemson, Colorado, Virginia Tech
First four left out: Southern California, Georgia, Missouri State, Memphis
Next four left out: Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Washington State
The under-consideration board: Penn State, UTEP, Wichita State

Seeding range for tonight's finalists not in the field:
Montana(16)
Robert Morris(16 or First Four)

Bracket Watch '11 - Five Days to Selection Sunday

Last night saw two games that had direct relevance to the bubble and the results were positive. The first one, the Colonial final, saw Old Dominion get out to as much as an 18-point lead before VCU stormed back to within 2. Ultimately, the Monarchs' interior dominance did the Rams in and resulted in a 70-65 win. For the bubble, it's a significant sigh of relief as both the Monarchs and George Mason were in regardless of what happened last night. The second game, the West Coast final in Las Vegas, saw Gonzaga and St. Mary's see-saw the lead well into the second half. But foul trouble for it's two most prominent interior players spelt an inevitable defeat for the Gaels, who now, for the second time in three years, leave themselves exposed to the hungry pack of bid poachers ready to swipe in at a moment's notice.

Here's the latest projection update, with two changes. Connecticut and Missouri swap seeds to better fit their profiles, while WOFFORD and Oakland swap regions to avoid a Wisconsin-WOFFORD rematch. These projections are done as always as if the season has ended.

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four
Tuesday: Colorado vs. Alabama; Northern Colorado(Big Sky) vs. McNeese State(Southland)
Wednesday: Michigan State vs. Clemson; Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/UNC ASHEVILLE
8-Villanova vs. 9-George Mason
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-BELMONT
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-MOREHEAD STATE
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-Butler*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Arizona vs. 11-Boston College*

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-Northern Colorado/McNeese State
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Illinois
@ Tucson
4-Kentucky vs. 13-Milwaukee(Horizon)
5-Kansas State vs. 12-Richmond
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-SAINT PETER'S
7-Georgetown vs. 10-Washington
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-GONZAGA

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-Unlv vs. 9-Tennessee
@ Denver
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Colorado*/Alabama*
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-Temple vs. 10-Michigan*
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Uab(Conference USA)*

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-North Texas(Sun Belt)
8-OLD DOMINION vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Connecticut vs. 12-Michigan State*/Clemson*
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Ucla vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Missouri vs. 11-St. Mary's*

New to the field: SAINT PETER'S, WOFFORD, North Texas
Leaving the field: Iona, College of Charleston, Middle Tennessee

Last four in the field(by seed list): Michigan State, Alabama, Clemson, Colorado First four left out: Virginia Tech, Southern California, Georgia, Missouri State
Next four left out: Memphis, Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma State, Nebraska The under-consideration board: Penn State, UTEP, Wichita State

Seeding range for tonight's finalists not in the field:
Oral Roberts: 13-14
Arkansas-Little Rock: First Four

Bracket Watch '11 - Six Days to Selection Sunday

And DOWN the stretch they come! Michigan State starting to fade...Here comes VCU on the rail! Colorado on the outside! Missouri State's out of it! Virginia Tech and Alabama neck and neck! Here's the finish...AND IT'S TOO CLOSE TO CALL!! THEY WILL HAVE TO GO TO THE PHOTO TO DETERMINE WHO'S IN AND WHO'S OUT! MY WHAT A FINISH.

That's the kind of call Dave Johnson would have if he were to handicap the bubble picture. And this year, that call would be very close to the truth. And around the NIT bubble, it's even worse, as conference champions have taken up five(and potentially six) spots so far.

There's also a change at the top of the bracket, as Duke's 81-67 loss to North Carolina dropped the Blue Devils to a 2 seed. Who's replacing them, Notre Dame; after a 70-67 win over UConn. The other three top seeds are safe(for now at least).

Starting with this bracket, teams that have already qualified for the dance of all dances will be in all CAPS.

Projection done as if the season has ended:

Final Four pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four:
Tuesday: Colorado vs. Alabama; Northern Colorado(Big Sky) vs. McNeese State(Southland
Wednesday: Michigan State vs. Clemson; Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/UNC ASHEVILLE
8-Villanova vs. 9-George Mason
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-BELMONT
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-MOREHEAD STATE
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-Butler*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Arizona vs. 11-Boston College*

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-Northern Colorado/McNeese State
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Illinois
@ Tucson
4-Kentucky vs. 13-Milwaukee(Horizon)
5-Kansas State vs. 12-Richmond
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-Iona(Metro Atlantic)
7-Georgetown vs. 10-Washington
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-Gonzaga*

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-Unlv vs. 9-Tennessee
@ Denver
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-College of Charleston(Southern)
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Colorado*/Alabama*
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-Temple vs. 10-Michigan*
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Uab(Conference USA)*

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)
8-Old Dominion(Colonial) vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Missouri vs. 12-Michigan State/Clemson
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Ucla vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Connecticut vs. 11-St. Mary's(West Coast)

New to the field: Clemson, UNC ASHEVILLE, Colorado, Iona, INDIANA STATE, MOREHEAD STATE, Alabama, Middle Tennessee
Leaving the field: Virginia Tech, Coastal Carolina, Fairfield, Missouri State, Wichita State, Murray State, Georgia, Florida Atlantic

Last four in the field(by seed list): Michigan State, Alabama, Clemson, Colorado
First four left out: Virginia Tech, Southern California, Georgia, Missouri State
Next four left out: Memphis, Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma State, Nebraska
The under-consideration board: Penn State, UTEP, Wichita State

Seeding range for tonight's finalists not in the field:
St. Peter's(15-16)
Virginia Commonwealth(11-13)
Wofford(13-14)

Bracket Watch '11 - Friday Update

As is usual for a Friday, a quick look at the seeds, but no bracket update. And also as usual, the projections are done as if the season has already ended.

* Denotes a bubble team
Underline denotes First Four team

1-Ohio State(East), Kansas(Southwest), Pittsburgh(Southeast), Duke(West)
2-Notre Dame, Purdue, San Diego State, Brigham Young
3-Syracuse, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas
4-Florida, Louisville, St. John's, Georgetown
5-Connecticut, Arizona, Kentucky, Kansas State
6-Xavier, George Mason, Cincinnati, UNLV
7-Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia
8-Utah State, Missouri, Temple, Old Dominion
9-Tennessee, Marquette, UCLA, Washington
10-Florida State, Butler*, UAB*, Georgia*
11-Michigan State*, Illinois*, Gonzaga*, St. Mary's*
12-Richmond*, Michigan*, Boston College*, Missouri State*, Virginia Tech*, Wichita State*
13-Belmont, Oakland, Coastal Carolina, Princeton
14-Kent State, College of Charleston, Long Island, Milwaukee
15-Long Beach State, Vermont, Fairfield, Bucknell
16-Texas Southern, Florida Atlantic, Murray State, Northern Colorado, Bethune Cookman, McNeese State

New to the field: Boston College, Kent State, Wichita State
Leaving the field: Baylor, Miami(OH), Alabama

Last four in the field: Michigan, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
First four left out: Clemson, Nebraska, Virginia Commonwealth, Alabama
Next four left out: Washington State, Memphis, Baylor, Penn State
The Under Consideration board: Dayton, Northwestern, Colorado, Southern Mississippi, Colorado State, Southern California

Quick update for next week:
Look for a fully updated bracket on Monday, followed by Tuesday and Wednesday updates, full brackets on Thursday and Friday, a seed update on Saturday(if possible), and at least one projected bracket on Sunday which might be expanded to two projections(one morning, one near the Selection Show) if conditions warrant.

Bracket Watch '11 - The wackiness is not over

Things are still evidently goofy with less than two weeks to go before Gene Smith and the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee reveals the 68 team field. How goofy? Well in the past week:

-Duke fell to a desperate Virginia Tech;
-Texas ended up losing a 15-point lead to Colorado, thus getting swept by the departing schools of the Big 12;
-St. John's continued it's revival by downing a suddenly down Villanova;
-Florida and Alabama set up their exciting showdown on Tuesday by losing;
-Brigham Young went in to San Diego and made itself San Diego State's daddy;
-Memphis had their at-large candidacy severly damaged vs. UTEP;
-and lastly, Harvard couldn't get past Yale, making this Saturday's game with Princeton a deathmatch(death meaning of course, a Tiger title).

There were a lot more results that affected the field this day, but those were the ones that had the biggest impact. How much? Well read for yourself. Also note that starting with this projection, bubble teams will be listed with an asterisk*.

Projections done as if the season ended yesterday.

Final Four pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four:
Tuesday Game A: Bethune Cookman(Mid Eastern) vs. Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
Tuesday Game B: Virginia Tech vs. Michign
Wednesday Game A: Baylor vs. Alabama
Wednesday Game B: Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. McNeese State(Southland)

East regional

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/McNeese State
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Washington*
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Princeton(Ivy League)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)*
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
7-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 10-Illinois*
@ Chicago
3-Notre Dame vs. 14-Vermont(America East)
6-Missouri vs. 11-Butler*

West region

@ Denver
1-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman/Florida Atlantic
8-Marquette vs. 9-Kansas State*
@ Tucson
4-Connecticut vs. 13-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
5-Kentucky vs. 12-Missouri State(Missouri Valley)*
@ Charlotte
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
7-George Mason(Colonial) vs. 10-Georgia*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-St. Mary's(West Coast)*

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas vs. 16-Northern Colorado(Big Sky)
8-UNLV vs. 9-Cincinnati
@ Charlotte
4-North Carolina vs. 13-Baylor*/Alabama*
5-Arizona(Pacific-10) vs. 12-Michigan State*
@ Chicago
2-Purdue vs. 15-Miami(Ohio)(Mid-American)
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Old Dominion*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-Syracuse vs. 14-Milwaukee(Horizon)
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-Richmond*

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Long Island(Northeast)
8-UCLA vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Virginia Tech*/Michigan*
@ Tulsa
2-Texas(Big 12) vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-Temple vs. 10-Gonzaga*
@ Denver
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Villanova vs. 11-UAB(Conference USA)*

New to the field: Virginia Tech, Northern Colorado, Michigan, Baylor, UAB, Princeton, Miami(Ohio), McNeese State
Leaving the field: Montana, Memphis, Southern Mississippi, Harvard, Kent State, Wichita State, Colorado State, Texas State

Last four in the field: Virginia Tech, Baylor, Michigan, Alabama
First four left out: Boston College, Memphis, Clemson, Colorado
Next four left out: Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Colorado State, Penn State
The underconsideration board: Maryland, Dayton, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Southern Mississippi, Valparaiso, Harvard, New Mexico, Southern Califorina, South Carolina