About last night in Hoops

One of the banes of college basketball is the unwillingness of teams from the BCS 6 who refuse to go on the road during the out-of-conference season, not even to face a team from another BCS 6 conference. At least North Carolina has the balls to schedule mid-majors on the road, winning one such game vs. the College of Charleston on the other hand, not so much. In actually, the Cougars had an 11-0 run to win at the end of regulation, then played a masterful performance in OT to secure the win. The result is that the Heels' RPI ranking on Rivals.com is now 58th. Expect that to improve the rest of the season. While the Cougars now assume the role of Southern Conference favorites. Now we wait for Duke to come into someone else's gym for an OOC game, fat chance it ever happens.

Last night was a stake in the heart of the Colonial's chance to earn an at-large bid to the dance. William & Mary's 10-game winning streak ended after blowing an 8 point lead to UNC Wilmington at home, losing it on a tip-in in the final 3 seconds. Virginia Commonwealth on the other hand, continued to be dominated in it's owh house by Northeastern, who extends their winning streak at the Siegel Pavillion to 3 games. Who ever wins the regular season title will be the most likely at-large hopeful, but upsets by the bottom-feeders will make this task more difficult for the leaders.

Instead of a letdown in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh was able to edge the Bearcats in a closely fought contest. The Panthers, fresh off of giving Syracuse it's first loss are now 3-0 in conference play and their seeding will rise at least one or 2 lines come next week. The Bearcats however, are looking at a stay on the bubble.

Mississippi State shot itself in the foot again, losing at Western Kentucky(Maybe the Heels and Bulldogs can start a support group...When BCS 6 teams go on the road at a non-BCS 6 school and lose). After losses to Rider and Richmond, the last thing the Bulldogs needed was to lose to another non-BCS 6 school. They may now need to do some significant damage in Southeastern Conference play to stay on the good side of the cut line.

Bracket Watch and the New Year's Surprise

What is the new year's surprise? Well unless you've been glued to the television watching so much football you may become a pigskin itself, here it is: Southern California, one of the co-leaders in the Pacific-10 has declared itself ineligible for this year's NCAA's(and the NIT and Pac-10 conference tourneys too). It all stems from O.J. Mayo's year at the school, Tim Floyd's tenure and plenty of greenbacks(Si, Barone!*). USC administrators declared themselves ineligible before the NCAA could do the same and do more damage, but the immediate penalty will force the Trojans from participating in any of this year's tournaments.

Now onto the first Bracket Watch of the season, which as always looks at how the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee would select, seed and bracket the field if the season ended Sunday night. No effort has been made to predict future results.

The Final Four pairings:
South(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. East(3)

South Region
Reliant Stadium; Houston; University of Houston

@Ford Center; Oklahoma City; Big 12 Conference
1-Texas vs. 16-Army(Patriot)
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Virginia Tech
@HP Pavilion; San Jose; San Jose State University
4-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 13-Weber State(Big Sky)
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-St. John's
@Dunkin' Donuts Center; Providence; Providence College and Big East Conference
2-Villanova vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-William & Mary(Colonial) vs. 10-Texas Tech
@Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Coliseum; Jacksonville University
3-North Carolina vs. 14-Vermont(America East)
6-Mississippi vs. 11-Minnesota

West Region
EnergySolutions Arena; Salt Lake City; University of Utah

@Bradley Center; Milwaukee; Marquette University
1-Purdue vs. 16-Radford(Big South)
8-Texas A&M vs. 9-St. Mary's
@Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena; Washington State University
4-Florida State vs. 13-Pacific(Big West)
5-Connecticut vs. 12-Cornell
@Providence
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Campbell(Atlantic Sun)
7-Mississippi State vs. 10-Richmond
@New Orleans Arena; Tulane University
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
6-Washington vs. 11-Florida

Midwest Region
Edward Jones Dome; Saint Louis; Missouri Valley Conference

@Oklahoma City
1-Kansas vs. 16-College of Charleston(Southern)
8-Georgia Tech vs. 9-Pittsburgh
@Spokane
4-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 13-Oregon(Pacific-10)
5-Wisconsin(Big Ten) vs. 12-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
@Jacksonville
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Texas-San Antonio(Southland)
7-UAB(Conference USA) vs. 10-Virginia Commonwealth
@HSBC Arena; Buffalo; Canisius College, Niagara University and Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
3-Georgetown vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Dayton vs. 11-Harvard(Ivy)

East Region
Carrier Dome; Syracuse; Syracuse University

@Milwaukee
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. Robert Morris(Northeast)
8-Cincinnati vs. 9-Rhode Island
@San Jose
4-Kansas State(Big 12) vs. 13-Louisiana Tech(Western Athletic)
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Northern Iowa(Missouri Valley)
@Buffalo
2-West Virginia(Big East) vs. 15-Western Michigan(Mid-American)
7-Butler(Horizon) vs. 10-California
@New Orleans
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Troy(Sun Belt)
6-Clemson vs. 11-Oklahoma State

Last four in the field: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, St. John's, Cornell
First four left out: Miami(FL), Ohio State, Nevada-Las Vegas, Xavier
Next four in line: Northwestern, Marquette, Old Dominion, Missouri State
Also under consideration: North Carolina State, Maryland, Duquesne, Notre Dame, Illinois, Michigan, Baylor, Memphis, Tulsa, Creighton, San Diego State, Washington State, Arizona State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Nevada

Next projection: Monday the 11th.

*For those wondering what I meant when I put down Si, Barone!, it's a reference to Stiletto, the right-hand conspirator to Baron Greenback on Danger Mouse. Just so you know.

Why Expanding the NCAA Tournament is a Bad Idea

Chatter has picked up in recent months about the NCAA possibly expanding the Men's Basketball Championship from it's current configuration of 65 teams to as many as 96. Let that last number sink in....on second thought don't, the scene may be too erotic for some. Why 96? Why mess with something that is perfect(except for the Opening Round game)? Why is the NCAA even considering this? Well there are a few ideas that may sound good, but really aren't. Here are just a few examples:

Increasing access for smaller conference teams
After only 3 teams from outside the BCS 6 made it in last year(and 3 others just missed out), one has to be very nervous about the potentiality of ALL 34 at-large bids going to BCS 6 members(it is very possible for this to occur). Thus, the idea of increasing access. Now this idea may infact be worthwhile to some, after all expanding the field may increase the number of Mid-Major teams is what many outside of a few simple-minded nitwits who only follow the BCS 6 would want to see, but the truth is many of the newly minted spots would go to middling to poor teams from the BCS 6. Of course who would be pushing for all this would be coaches, which leads to:

Job Security
Many big name coaches(Jim Boeheim for example) have constantly complained for increased access, knowing full well it will look good on the resume. But look at the coaches that have had bad years and not been fired. Of course many of them occured in the era when you only made the NCAA if you won your conference. Speaking of conferences(and the teams that reside in them):

Division I Growth
Back in 1948, when the NCAA listed 160 of it's members as being part of the University Division, only 8 teams were chosen to play in the NCAA tournament(of course the NIT was also available and even the NAIA tournament had a few University Division members participate). As late as 1974, only 25 bids were available to 233 Division I teams. Today, there are 334 teams playing actual Division I hoops playing for 65 spots. That's 1 bid for every 5.2 teams. If it were to grow to 96, the ratio would drop to 3.6 for 344 teams. The Division I Board of Directors has at least recognized that Division I has grown too big in recent years and has proposed new requirements to limit(if not outright prevent) movement into the division. It's definitely an outgrowth of:

The American Way
It's a simple fact of our consumeristic society that we want more and we want it now. It's brought us numerous inventions and ideas that have whetted our appetites to the point where if were deprived of it for only a few minutes, we (figuratively) throw tantrums. This way of life has also produced or last element and it should come to no one's surprise that it's four little letters:

ESPN
Having scored the rights to the BCS starting this fall, the worldwide leader is setting it's sights on the second most popular college property. The NCAA has at least aided and abetted ESPN by including in the current contract with CBS that the NCAA can opt out after this season. It is entirely possible however that the NCAA will do the decent thing and allow the contract to run it's course. But then ESPN has a ton of money to throw(thanks to the Walt Disney Company) and has shown no remorse for throwing it around. Heck, they may even steal the Olympics from NBC.

Now those ideas may work in the short term, but it may kill the goose and the egg, why?

It's the economy, stupid!
Even as we rebound from our most recent recession, money for sporting sponsorship will continue to be tight for at least a few years.

The BCS
Remember when New Year's Day was the absolute end of the College Football season, well it's now gotten to a point when an outdoor hockey game(NHL Winter Classic) is considered by some, not all, as the most important event of the day. The BCS shoulders the blame here by taking important games out further into January and rendering them meaningless(Yes, I'll admit it, the Rose Bowl was meaningless this year). If the NCAA extends the tournament into April, you risk bumping into the Masters, the start of the baseball season, the NFL draft and at many schools, spring football.

No more perfect symmetry
Yes it would still be symmetrical, but 96 is not the same as 64(or 65 for that matter). After all, the bracket would have to be expanded on to 2 sheets of paper or more.

I'd stop doing bracketology
I mean the best part of doing this job would be to compare myself to others. But if you expand the field, how many would just give it up? I know I would and I suspect others would.

If you like the ideas, or hate them, just comment.

Guess who has his own twitter feed?

Yep, I've just created my own twitter account. Click on the title to become a follower(if you are already on there).

Note: I'll be using it mostly to announce when brackets are up, and to make occasional comments. I will not be using to announce when I go to the bathroom.

The Method to the Madness

Before I start the projections next week, here is a quick (and dirty) recap on how the bracket projections are done on this site.
Note: If you decide that you wan't to do a bracket yourself, Click on the Principles and Procedures link on the right hand side of the page.

Automatic Qualifiers

The AQ from each conference each week is determined by who has the
best in-conference record as of the day of the projection. Should there be a tie for 1st, the team that has won the head-to-head matchup will get the bid, but if the tied teams haven't met yet, the team with the better RPI rank(as of the day of the projection) will receive it. Each AQ team will have the name of the conference it represents listed in parenthesis.

At-Large Teams

The 34 teams are chosen as if the season had ended the day prior to projection and are chosen as if they were chosen by the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee. Poll rankings are not a factor.

Site, Site, everywhere a Site

Some teams cannot play at certain sites as they are hosting. They are:
Early Rounds
Canisius College and Niagara University(Buffalo)
Jacksonville University(Jacksonville)
Marquette University(Milwaukee)
Tulane University(New Orleans)
Providence College(Providence)
San Jose State(San Jose)
Washington State(Spokane)
Regionals
University of Houston(Houston)
Syracuse University(Syracuse)
University of Utah(Salt Lake City)

Teams from the Big 12 can play in Oklahoma City, teams from the Missouri Valley can play in St. Louis(So could Saint Louis University) and Gonzaga University can play in Spokane(if they're seeded high enough to do so).

Timing

Expect most of my projections to be published by 2 PM early on, then by Noon from February onward.

Now that you are aware of my methodology, I'll be back next Monday to release the 1st bracket of the season.