Bracket Watch - Anyone out there?

Seriously, the bubble this year is exceptionally weak, more so than in the last few years. At this rate by next week, the bubble may consist of Denver, Liberty, Jacksonville State and a few Division II schools. I kid of course about these teams, but the truth is nobody on the bubble(with the exceptions of teams like Creighton, Penn State and Texas A&M) wants to be there. It's going to make a difficult week for bracketologists to forecast who will be in.

With all the big conferences wrapping up regular season play this weekend, Bracket Watch will go into daily mode starting Monday with a full projection followed by updates on Tuesday and Wednesday. Full Projections will then occur on Thursday and Friday with the final projections on Sunday(No Saturday projection as I will be attending the Minnesota State High School Hockey Tournament).

Now on to the newest field:

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. South(3)

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Radford/Big South
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Miami
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
5-Clemson vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Penn State
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-Miami(OH)/Mid-American
6-California vs. 11-Utah State/Western Athletic

West region
@Dayton
1-Louisville vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Texas vs. 9-Boston College
@Boise
4-Purdue vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-New Mexico
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference-USA vs. 15-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Oklahoma State
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/Big Sky
6-Utah/Mountain West vs. 11-Ohio State

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Minnesota vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Boise
4-Missouri vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Marquette vs. 12-Maryland
@Minneapolis
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Arizona State vs. 10-Dayton
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Illinois vs. 9-Texas A&M
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Davidson/Southern
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Butler/Horizon vs. 10-St. Mary's
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-Cornell/Ivy
6-Florida State vs. 11-Creighton

New to the field: Maryland, Penn State, Miami(OH), New Mexico

Last four in the field: South Carolina, Ohio State, Maryland, New Mexico
First four left out: Rhode Island, Michigan, Arizona, Providence
Next four left out: Miami(FL), Florida, Northwestern, Auburn
Also in consideration: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Washington State, Kentucky

Predicting The Conference Tournament Champions

These are just my guesses for the 31 automatic qualifiers, they're not reflective of the current standings:

America East: Binghamton
Atlantic Coast: North Carolina
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Atlantic 10: Dayton
Big East: Connecticut
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Virginia Military
Big Ten: Purdue
Big 12: Missouri
Big West: Pacific
Colonial: George Mason
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Buffalo
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Mountain West: New Mexico
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Austin Peay
Pacific-10: UCLA
Patriot: American
Southeastern: South Carolina
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Alabama State
Summit: North Dakota State
Sun Belt: Arkansas-Little Rock
West Coast: St. Mary's
Western Athletic: Utah State

Bracket Watch - Who wants in?

It's become increasingly crazy over the past few weeks as more teams are trying to play their way out as opposed to those trying to play their way in. This weekend alone, bubble teams like Cincinnati, Kentucky and Virginia Tech more or less played their way out of contention, Arizona and Ohio State came close to moving out and Maryland, Georgetown and Texas A&M made strong plays to try to get in the field.

How does it reflect on today's projection? Well here goes...

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. South(3)

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Dayton vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@Minneapolis
4-Purdue vs. 13-Bowling Green/Mid-American
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Arizona
@Minneapolis
3-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit
6-Butler/Horizon vs. 11-Creighton

West region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma vs. 16-Northridge State/Big West
8-Syracuse vs. 9-Minnesota
@Portland
4-Ucla vs. 13-Davidson/Southern
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-Miami(FL)
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Illinois vs. 10-South Carolina
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Clemson vs. 11-Utah State/Western Athletic

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Tennessee vs. 9-California
@Boise
4-Florida State vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Utah/Mountain West vs. 12-St. Mary's
@Dayton
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Cornell/Ivy
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Texas A&M
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Arizona State vs. 11-Providence

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Radford/Big South
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Boise
4-Missouri vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Marquette vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Miami
2-Louisville vs. 15-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
7-Texas vs. 10-Boston College
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/Big Sky
6-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 11-Ohio State

New to the field: Providence, Texas A&M, Northridge State, Bowling Green, Nevada-Las Vegas

Last four in the field(by seed list): Creighton, Miami(FL), St. Mary's, Providence
First four left out: Maryland, New Mexico, Penn State, Florida
Next four left out: Georgetown, Kentucky, Michigan, Virginia Tech
Also on the at-large board: Rhode Island, Temple, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Nebraska, Tulsa, San Diego State, Southern California, Auburn

Bracket Watch - TGIBWF

Nothing really witty to say right now, except to say there is a new team to the top line today....you'll have to find out who it is.

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Midwest(2) vs. South(3)

East Region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Radford/Big South
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@Portland
4-Utah/Mountain West vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Arizona State vs. 12-St. Mary's
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Binghamton/America East
7-Texas vs. 10-Tennessee
@Minneapolis
3-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 14-Akron/Mid-American
6-Xavier vs. 11-Creighton

West Region
@Kansas City
1-Memphis/Confernce USA vs. 16-Long Beach State/Big West
8-West Virginia vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Wake Forest vs. 13-Davidson/Southern
5-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 12-Cincinnati
@Kansas City
2-Oklahoma vs. 15-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Dayton
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-Cornell/Ivy League
6-Florida State vs. 11-Siena/Metro Atlantic

Midwest Region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-Boston College
@Portland
4-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Kentucky
@Boise
2-Kansas/Big 12 vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Syracuse vs. 10-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Miami
3-Clemson vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Illinois vs. 11-Florida

South Region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
8-Arizona vs. 9-South Carolina
@Boise
4-Purdue vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Marquette vs. 12-Virginia Commonwealth
@Dayton
2-Louisville vs. 15-Robert Morris
7-Butler/Horizon vs. 10-Minnesota
@Minneapolis
3-Missouri vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit
6-Ucla vs. 11-Miami(FL)

New to the field: Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Akron, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's

Last four in the field: Cincinnati, St. Mary's, Creighton, Kentucky
First four left out: Nevada-Las Vegas, Virginia Tech, Michigan, Notre Dame
Next four left out: Penn State, Providence, Texas A&M, Rhode Island
Also in the mix: Temple, Georgetown, Nebraska, Tulsa, UAB, Illinois State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Southern California, Mississippi State

Myths and Realities

If you've been doing bracketology for a long time(or following it), you probably come to the realization that there are certain people that will complain to no end about your work, claiming that they know more about the subject than you do. But they don't. Here are a few myths you can use to defend yourself from the onslaught of Joe Homers.

Myth 1
CBS has a hand in picking teams in order to maximize ratings.

Reality 1
In truth, CBS does nothing to influence the selection committee. It only places one camera in the selection room(soundless of course) and occasionally checks in to see how far the committee is along in the process. For the past few years, reporter Seth Davis is allowed in, but only for a general look at the process and not for anything relating the bracket.

Myth 2
20 wins means an automatic invite to the dance.

Reality 2
In truth, 20 wins mean nothing to the committee in this era of multi-team tournaments, mega conferences and imbalanced schedules. Who you beat and where you beat them mean more than does the actual win count. Always has and always will.

Myth 3
Traditional powers will always get the benefit of the doubt, even if they have losing records.

Reality 3
If traditional powers have losing records, their only way to make the field is to be victorious in their conference tournament. The elites have to earn their way in, just like the proletariats in the lower leagues.

Myth 4
Conferences get bids based on how well the media perceives it.

Reality 4
The NCAA makes it quite explicit in the selection procedures and principles that teams get bids to the dance, not conferences(except the automatic qualifiers). An egregious example occured in 2007 when Brent Musburger said, during a Big Ten game no less, that the Big Ten would get five bids to the dance, causing a mild controversy. Turned out that his Museness was right, there were five teams from the Big Ten in the field.

Myth 5
Hyped-up matchups are contrived by the committee before the bracket is setup

Reality 5
Hyped-up matchups are actually the byproduct of the bracketing process. For instance, the top 3 teams from a given conference must be placed in different regions, no team may meet a fellow conference member until the regional finals, and so on.

Myth 6
The RPI is the be all and end all

Reality 6
The RPI is just one of many tools at the committee's hand, the most important one though is the observations of the ten members of the committee and it's their work that produces the most famous bracket in sports.

So if you find a Joe Homer who thinks he knows what he's talking about, pepper him with this material. You'll be glad you did.