For my 50th post

I want to announce that the Bracket Watch Open Brackets challenge is once again open on Yahoo!'s Tournament Pick 'em site: http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1

All you need to do is to enter at the site and enter ID# 3994. It's open to the public so call your friends to enter.

Bracket Watch - Into the stretch drive

The only thing that would make the stretch run to the big dance even more exciting would have to be choosing either Dave Johnson, Tom Durkin or Paul Allen doing the call as if it were the Kentucky Derby. Yes the battle to stay on the good site of the bubble or getting on to it is turning into a horse race. At this point the top 4 teams are stabilizing(despite the fact three of them lost week) and most at-large spots are close to being spoken for(if not claimed already). But there is no settlement at this point for most of the seeds and placements(Indeed after finishing the bracket this morning, I reshuffled the sites of a few pods).

Final Four pairings:
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round-Radford/Big South vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Kentucky vs. 9-Creighton/Missouri Valley
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-Penn State
5-Florida State vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Portland
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Long Beach State/Big West
7-Ucla vs. 10-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Miami
3-Duke vs. 14-American/Patriot
6-Syracuse vs. 11-South Carolina

West region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Tennessee-Martin/Ohio Valley
8-Dayton vs. 9-California
@Miami
4-Wake Forest vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Illinois vs. 12-Davidson/Southern
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Florida vs. 10-Arizona
@Philadelphia
3-Villanova vs. 14-Buffalo/Mid-American
6-Utah/Mountain West vs. 11-Maryland

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Binghamton/America East
8-Ohio State vs. 9-Tennessee
@Portland
4-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Washington/Pacific-10 vs 12-Miami(FL)
@Greensboro
2-Clemson vs. 15-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
7-Texas vs. 10-Brigham Young
@Minneapolis
3-Marquette vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit
6-Butler/Horizon vs. 11-Wisconsin

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
8-West Virginia vs. 9-Minnesota
@Boise
4-Arizona State vs. 13-Virginia Commonwealth/Colonial
5-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 12-San Diego State
@Dayton
2-Louisville vs. 15-Robert Morris/Northeast
7-Purdue vs. 10-Boston College
@Minneapolis
3-Missouri vs. 14-Cornell/Ivy
6-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas

Differences within the seed list:
Dayton(true 9 seed)
Minnesota(true 8 seed)
Siena(true 11 seed)
Wisconsin(true 12 seed)

New to the field: Binghamton, Maryland, Miami(FL), Penn State, Long Beach State, Virginia Commonwealth, Tennessee-Martin, Stephen F. Austin, Western Kentucky

Last four in the field: San Diego State, Miami(FL), Wisconsin, Penn State
First four left out: Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Temple
Next four left out: Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, UAB, Cincinnati
Also in contention: North Carolina State, Georgetown, Providence, Michigan, Baylor, Kansas State, Nebraska, Tulsa, New Mexico, Southern California, Mississippi State, Nevada

The next projection will come out on Friday. Indeed for the next for the next two weeks, I'm doing twice-weekly projections. For the week of Selection Sunday, there will be daily updates(except Saturday) with the final projection after the SEC final.

Bracket Watch - Mocking things as we go along

Last Thursday, whilst watching the Gatorade Duels that set the field for the Daytona 500(yes I have a life outside of this), the NCAA hosted a mock bracket shindig in which 20 lucky souls get to do their best selection committee impersonation and produce a field of 65 in which we real bracketologists get to rip. But not me, in fact, I'm envious of these people. Not that I would ever accept an NCAA invite to do this, I'm too busy with other stuff like watching cars go round in circles. Kyle Wheliston of The Mid-Majority wrote about his experiences at his blog: http://www.midmajority.com/2009/02/mock-selection-2009.php. Read it and then compare what I and about 50 others are doing at the Bracket Matrix.

As to this week's projections, read on:

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. Midwest(4)
South(2) vs. West(3)

East region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Morehead State/Ohio Valley
8-Florida State vs. 9-South Carolina
@Boise
4-Illinois vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Arizona State vs. 12-Nevada-Las Vegas
@Kansas City
2-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 15-American/Patriot
7-Dayton/Atlantic 10 vs. 10-Utah State/Western Athletic
@Miami
3-Wake Forest vs. 14-Arkansas-Little Rock
6-Villanova vs. 11-Wisconsin

Midwest region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Radford/Big Sky vs. Northridge State/Big West
8-Kentucky vs. 9-Boston College
@Minneapolis
4-Xavier vs. 13-Buffalo/Mid-American
5-Purdue vs. 12-Providence
@Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Vermont/America East
7-Ohio State vs. 10-San Diego State
@Minneapolis
3-Missouri vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Syracuse vs. 11-Creighton

South region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Minnesota vs. 9-California
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Gonzaga vs. 12-Cincinnati
@Dayton
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Cornell/Ivy
7-Texas vs. 10-Davidson/Southern
@Portland
3-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Sam Houston State/Southland
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Florida

West region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Utah/Mountain West vs. 9-Tennessee
@Portland
4-Marquette vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Ucla vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Miami
2-Clemson vs. 15-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
7-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 10-Arizona
@Philadelphia
3-Louisville vs. 14-Northeastern/Colonial
6-Butler/Horizon vs. 11-Brigham Young

New to the field: Vermont, Jacksonville, Radford, Wisconsin, Northridge State, Cornell, Creighton, Brigham Young, American, Kentucky, Arkansas-Little Rock

Last four in the field: Cincinnati, Nevada-Las Vegas, Creighton, Providence
First four left out: Miami(FL), Southern California, Georgetown, Michigan
Next four left out: Nebraska, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Notre Dame
Also under consideration: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Penn State, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, George Mason, UAB, Tulsa, Illinois State, Stanford

New polls will be up shortly. The next projection is next week.

UPDATE: Added Virginia Tech as under consideration.

State of the Bubble(Part 4)

The more I think about this year's bubble, the more it resembles 2006 when the committee picked Utah State, Air Force and George Mason over the likes of Cincinnati, Missouri State and others. If anyone gets all 34 at-large teams this year, they'll have earned it. Obviously if no one gets all 34, I wouldn't be surprised. Every year it seems that all of us bracketologists get at least 1 team wrong. With that in mind, here is the last installment of the State of the Bubble.

Pacific-10
Likely number of bids: 4-6
Lock: UCLA
Close to lockhood: Arizona State, California, Washington
In the mix: Arizona, Southern California
Losing the edge: Stanford
New coach? Constant roster turmoil? No chance at a bid? No problem if you're Arizona. The Wildcats have rattled of 6 in a row heading into tonights bubble battle with the Trojans. Southern California won the 1st meeting earlier this year in the final moments.

Patriot
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: American
Holy Cross might have won the first meeting, but that was in Worcester. The Eagles welcome the Crusaders to Washington for the next one. One that will in all likelyhood determine the top seed here.

Southeastern
Likely number of bids: 3-5
In the mix: Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Losing the edge: Arkansas, Mississippi State
Yes, you're reading it right. There are no locks in the SEC, not even teams that are close. That doesn't suggest that this will be a one bid league. In fact, there's bound to be significant controversy if it gets 5. With Commissioner Mike Silve as the chair of the selection committee, it may very well happen.

Southern
Likely number of bids: 1-2
In the mix: Davidson
Just like last year, the Wildcats(or more accurately, Stephen Curry) had a loaded schedule. Their only big win occured against West Virginia at Madison Square Garden, but at least did well early in the season vs. Oklahoma. The most significant result however, was a 2 point loss to the College of Charleston that could deny the Wildcats an at-large berth if needed.

Southland
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Stephen F. Austin
Who can figure this conference out? I know I can't. Which is why the Lumberjacks are listed here.

Southwestern
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Alabama State
Regardless of who wins, the champion is a sure lock to be team #65 on the seed list with a trip to the opening round game in Dayton.

Summit League
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: North Dakota State
In only their first year of big dance eligiblity, the Bison are storming(so to speak) to their first Summit crown. With the tourney in Sioux Falls, look for the Bison to stop the advance of long time kingpin Oral Roberts.

Sun Belt
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Western Kentucky
Unlike last year, there are no at-large hopefuls out of this league, so look for Big Red and his Hilltoppers to once again rule the Belt.

West Coast
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Close to lockhood: Gonzaga
In the mix: St. Mary's
The Gaels may miss their leader Patrick Mills, but this team is was a borderline bubble team even with him. Upsetting the Zags, or perhaps beating Utah State next week could change that perception.

Western Athletic
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Close to lockhood: Utah State
The Aggies were helped last night by Utah's win over San Diego State, but the Aggies probably don't need the help as they could clinch the outright WAC championship this weekend.

And with that, the state of the bubble is fully adressed. We now return you to your regularly scheduled bracket watching.

State of the bubble(Part 3)

Yes, I was going to do the third part of the State of the bubble series on Thursday, but I couldn't resist doing one before the first really important UNC/Duke game tonight. So here we go into the....

Horizon League
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Lock: Butler
In the mix: Green Bay
Remember all those preseason predictions that Butler would quietly sink to the middle of the pack in the Horizon? Of course you don't. We should've seen this coming from Brad Stevens' Bulldogs. Of course they couldn't get by the Phoenix last week in the frozen tundra, giving Green Bay an outside chance at an at-large.

Ivy League
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Cornell
Cornell still is favored by a more favorable schedule in league play. But it's Princeton who's the league leader, with a 20 point shellacking of the Big Red last week. There's no tournament in the Ancient Eight, so the winner has to earn it the hard way.

Metro Atlantic
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Siena
The Saints 90-88 loss to Rider last Sunday has all but eliminated it from at-large contention, or was it even in contention to begin with? Well failing to score a non-conference scalp against the likes of Tennessee, Pittsburgh, etc. would have hampered the Saints even if they went 18-0 in the MAAC.

Mid-American
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Buffalo
The Bulls are favored over Miami(OH) by virtue of it's non-conference performance(Winning the Rainbow Classic; close loss to Connecticut). If Buffalo can win, it would be it's first Big Dance in it's history.

Mid-Eastern
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Morgan State
The Bears are in the same boat as Buffalo, looking to nail down it's inagural Big Dance invite. Todd Bozeman's team came close last year, but were upset by Coppin State in the conference championship.

Missouri Valley
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Creighton
Dana Altman's charges have the best RPI in the league and on Tuesday defeated current leader Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls. Despite remaining in the top 10 of both the RPI and Ken Pomeroy's ratings, the valley is destined to be a one-bid conference for the 2nd straight year.

Mountain West:
Likely number of bids: 2-4
In the mix: Brigham Young, UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah
Of the five teams listed here, the Utes have the most perplexing profile. Wins over Gonzaga and Louisiana State are offset by losses to Idaho State and Division II Southwest Baptist(WTF is with that?). The MWC should get at least 2, but if it gets 3 or 4, I won't be surprised. If gets only one, it may be a greater injustice than Utah being denied a national championship if football.

Northeast
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Robert Morris
Falling short of the field last season, the Colonials are 2 games clear heading in to the stretch drive. Anyother team that wins the tournament will likely be headed to Dayton for the opening round.

Ohio Valley
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Morehead State
The last time the Phil Simms' alma mater was dancing was 1984. They should go again, despite challenges from resurgent Tennessee-Martin, last year's winner Austin Peay and ole standbuys Murray State.

Part 4 tomorrow, I promise.