State of the Bubble(Part 2)

Big Sky
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Weber State
Having already beaten fellow contenders Montana and Portland State, the Wildcats have the edge for homecourt advantage in the conference tournament.

Big South
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Virginia Military
The Keydets, the highest scoring team in country, are tied with Radford for 1st, but hold the edge for the top seed due to a win at the Highlanders. Liberty has beaten the Keydets in Lexington, VA and could do so again should they meet in the finals.

Big Ten
Likely number of bids: 5-7
Locks: Michigan State
Close to lockhood: Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue
In the mix: Michigan, Northwestern, Penn State, Wisconsin
To say the Big Ten is overachieving this year is an understatement. But the matter is simply the league is close to regaining the prominence it had in 2005. Of the four teams in the mix, the Badgers are the closest to being close to lockhood, but a six game losing streak in the middle of conference play cannot be overlooked. Purdue might fall off to the in the mix line if Robbie Hummel can't get back quickly.

Big 12
Likely number of bids: 4-6
Locks: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma
Close to lockhood: Texas
In the mix: Baylor, Kansas State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
The first three are solidly safe, then there's a dropoff to the Longhorns, and then another sharp drop to the in the mix crowd. Could the top four be the only ones to make the dance? Maybe, but even then Texas may continue to slide(Last night's win over Oklahoma State not withstanding).

Big West
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Long Beach State
Dan Monson has done a respectable job of reviving the 49ers. Whether or not it gets Long Beach to the dance is another matter, Cal State Fullerton, UC Davis and Northridge State will have something to say about that.

Colonial
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Northeastern
The Boston based Huskies weren't expected to contend for the overall crown, yet they're a game up over the competition including Virginia Commonwealth, whom the Huskies beat on the Rams' home court.

Conference USA
Likely number of bids: 1-2
Locks: Memphis
In the mix: UAB, Tulsa
Memphis is once again the prohibitive favorite to win the automatic bid. The Blazers and Golden Hurricane are on the verge of falling off the bubble entirely, but both have chances to knock the Tigers off(Tulsa actually came close to beating the Tigers at home in their first meeting, but the Tigers won on a last second shot).

Part 3 tomorrow.

State of the Bubble (Part 1)

With less than 5 weeks before Mike Silve and his fellow selection committee members hunker down in downtown Indianapolis to hammer out the field of 65, here is a (somewhat) detailed look at how the bubble is shaping up:

America East
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Vermont
Boston University is the current leader(as of Monday), but the Terriers have to visit the Catamounts on Wednesday night. The winner should have the inside edge for the #1 seed in the conference tournament. Binghamton, the surprise early leader is also in the mix.

Atlantic Coast
Likely number of bids: 6-8
Locks: Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Close to lockhood: Florida State
In the mix: Boston College, Miami(FL), Virginia Tech
Losing the edge: Maryland
The Seminoles recent hot streak has them closer to lock status recently, but they probably need one more high profile win(likely @ Wake) to feel secure. The Eagles famously followed up their upset of North Carolina in Chapel by being beat by Harvard at the Conte Forum. Miami and Virginia Tech both have upsets over Wake Forest, but little else. The Terps are all but finished after being routed by the Heels.

Atlantic Sun
Likely number of bids: 1
The favorite: Belmont
It's deja vu in the A-Sun, where Vince Gill's favorite team is rising to the top of the standings. With the conference tourney in Nashville, look for the Bruins to get the better of East Tennessee State and Jacksonville.

Atlantic 10
Likely number of bids: 1-3
Lock: Xavier
In the mix: Dayton, Duquesne
Losing the edge: Rhode Island, Temple
Xavier is well entrenched, but a loss to Duquesne helped dent their inviciblilty within the league. The Flyers' hopes have been rocked by losses to Massachusetts and Charlotte. Neither the Rams nor the Owls had the kind of non-conference seasons they could fall back on if their conference seasons faltered.

Big East
Likely number of bids: 7-10
Locks: Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova
Close to lockhood: West Virginia
In the mix: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Providence
Losing the edge: Notre Dame
If any conference deserves the description muddled, it this one. And I'm going to leave it at that.

More on this later.

Bracket Watch - Over a muddling field

When I mean a muddling field, I mean a pool of at-large teams that are falling into a growing field of mediocrity or trying to reach it. That means the field is considerably more fluid this week. Without trying to get into too much detail, it means that the at-large field will be more difficult to pick on Selection Sunday.

Now on to the latest projected field(as of Sunday night's games):

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. Midwest(3)

East Region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut/Big East vs. 16-Morehead State/Ohio Valley
8-Utah State/Western Athletic vs. 9-Florida State
@Minneapolis
4-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Butler/Horizon vs. 12-Kansas State
@Miami
2-Clemson vs. 15-Virginia Military/Big South
7-California vs. 10-Providence
@Kansas City
3-Missouri vs. 14-Sam Houston State/Southland
6-Ohio State vs. 11-Cincinnati

West Region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round Winner
Opening Round: Long Beach State/Big West vs. Princeton/Ivy
8-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 9-Miami(FL)
@Boise
4-Kansas vs. 13-North Dakota State/Summit
5-Illinois vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Greensboro
2-Duke/Atlantic Coast vs. 15-East Tennessee State/Atlantic Sun
7-Texas vs. 10-South Carolina
@Portland
3-Ucla/Pacific-10 vs. 14-Weber State/Big Sky
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas

South Region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Alabama State/Southwestern
8-Minnesota vs. 9-Utah
@Boise
4-Wake Forest vs. 13-Northeastern/Colonial
5-Villanova vs. 12-Arizona
@Dayton
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Holy Cross/Patriot
7-Arizona State vs. 10-Davidson/Southern
@Philadelphia
3-Louisville vs. 14-Buffalo/Mid-American
6-Florida vs. 11-Boston College

Midwest Region
@Greensboro
1-North Carolina vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Dayton vs. 9-Tennessee
@Portland
4-Washington vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Syracuse vs. 12-Michigan
@Minneapolis
2-Marquette vs. 15-Boston University/America East
7-San Diego State/Mountain West vs. 10-Gonzaga/West Coast
@Miami
3-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 14-Robert Morris/Northeast
6-Purdue vs. 11-Virginia Tech

New to the field this week: Boston University, Boston College, Miami(FL), Cincinnati, Michigan, Kansas State, Princeton, San Diego State, Arizona, Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky

Last four in the field: Cincinnati, Michigan, Arizona, Kansas State
First four left out: Georgetown, Brigham Young, Penn State, Nebraska
Next four left out: Creighton, Maryland, Wisconsin, Southern California
Also in consideration: Duquesne, Rhode Island, Temple, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Virginia Commonwealth, UAB, Tulsa, Green Bay, New Mexico, Kentucky, Mississippi State, College of Charleston

Polls will be up later.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Added Wisconsin as a bubble team.

Bracket Watch - An ode to Super Monday....

NOT!!!!

Actually the title for this week's post of the projections is a tweak at a man who wants to be known as the last man to know who won the Super Bowl, Kyle Wheliston.

He has a ritual that he tries to be the last one to know who won the Super Bowl. Last year, he attempted to wait until Wednesday to learn who won. Only to be blocked by a group of Valparaiso University students who revealed that the New York Giants had upset the New England Patriots. So this year, if you read the Mid-Majority blog, don't e-mail him. Just for the record, yes the Pittsburgh Steelers are enjoying the joy of six($1 to the 1991 San Diego Sockers indoor soccer team).

On to the projections, which are totally jumbled after a slew of upsets.

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. Midwest(3)

East Region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut(New Overall #1) vs. 16-Holy Cross/Patriot League
8-Utah State/Western Athletic vs. 9-Missouri
@Portland
4-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 13-Weber State/Big Sky
5-Ucla vs. 12-Utah
@Miami
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-Arkansas-Little Rock/Sun Belt
7-Davidson/Southern vs. 10-Florida
@Minneapolis
3-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 14-Virginia Military/Big South
6-Syracuse vs. 11-Oklahoma State

West Region
@Dayton
1-Louisville/Big East vs. 16-Opening Round Winner
Opening Round: Morehead State/Ohio Valley vs. Alabama State/Southwestern
8-California vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas/Mountain West
@Boise
4-Texas vs. 13-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Northwestern
@Greensboro
2-North Carolina vs. 15-Vermont/America East
7-South Carolina vs. 10-Dayton
@Kansas City
3-Purdue vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit League
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Southern California

South Region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Ohio State
@Boise
4-Butler/Horizon vs. 13-Long Beach State/Big West
5-Villanova vs. 12-Portland
@Dayton
2-Pittsburgh vs. 15-Cornell/Ivy
7-Arizona State vs. 10-Penn State
@Miami
3-Clemson vs. 14-East Tennessee State/Atlantic Sun
6-Kentucky vs. 11-Siena/Metro Atlantic

Midwest Region
@Greensboro
1-Duke/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Robert Morris/Northeast
8-Louisiana State/Southeastern vs. 9-Georgetown
@Portland
4-Minnesota vs. 13-Buffalo/Mid-American
5-Kansas vs. 12-Providence
@Minneapolis
2-Marquette vs. 15-Stephen F. Austin/Southland
7-Washington/Pacific-10 vs. 10-Tennessee
@Philadelphia
3-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 14-Northeastern/Colonial
6-Illinois vs. 11-Florida State

New to the field: Virginia Tech, East Tennessee State, Northwestern, Penn State, Northeastern, Buffalo, Nevada-Las Vegas, Utah, Morehead State, Louisiana State, South Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, Portland

Last four in the field: Southern California, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Portland
First four left out: Brigham Young, Boston College, Notre Dame, Arizona
Next four left out: Mississippi State, Miami(FL), Creighton, St. Mary's
Also in the mix: Maryland, St. Joseph's, Cincinnati, Michigan, Baylor, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Virginia Commonwealth, UAB, Tulsa, Green Bay, Miami(OH), Bradley, Illinois State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Texas Christian, Stanford, Arkansas, Nevada

New Polls will be up shortly.

Bracket Watch - Vol. 4

Sorry in advance if I'm a little terse with this post. I have such a headache right now that I need to take a rest. But first the projections:

Final Four Pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest Region
@Greensboro
1-Duke/Atlantic Coast vs. 16-Morgan State/Mid-Eastern
8-California vs. 9-Missouri
@Portland
4-Memphis/Conference USA vs. 13-Texas Christian/Mountain West
5-Villanova vs. 12-Northern Iowa/Missouri Valley
@Dayton
2-Louisville/Big East vs. 15-Ball State/Mid-American
7-Florida State vs. 10-Washington/Pacific-10
@Philadelphia
3-Xavier/Atlantic 10 vs. 14-Cornell/Ivy League
6-Baylor vs. 11-Michigan

West Region
@Kansas City
1-Oklahoma/Big 12 vs. 16-Holy Cross/Patriot League
8-Minnesota vs. 9-Tennessee
@Boise
4-Syracuse vs. 13-Long Beach State
5-Gonzaga/West Coast vs. 12-Southern California
@Greensboro
2-North Carolina vs. 15-Virginia Military/Big South
7-Ucla vs. 10-Dayton
@Minneapolis
3-Marquette vs. 14-North Dakota State/Summit
6-Illinois vs. 11-Utah State/Western Athletic

East Region
@Philadelphia
1-Connecticut vs. 16-Vermont/America East
8-Miami(FL) vs. 9-Ohio State
@Portland
4-Butler/Horizon vs. 13-Virginia Commonwealth
5-Kansas vs. 12-Providence
@Miami
2-Wake Forest vs. 15-Austin Peay/Ohio Valley
7-Florida vs. 10-Notre Dame
@Kansas City
3-Purdue vs. 14-Jacksonville/Atlantic Sun
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Brigham Young

South Region
@Dayton
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Alabama State/Southwestern vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi/Southland
8-Davidson/Southern vs. 9-Wisconsin
@Boise
4-Texas vs. 13-Western Kentucky/Sun Belt
5-Kentucky vs. 12-Siena/Metro Atlantic
@Minneapolis
2-Michigan State/Big Ten vs. 15-Robert Morris
7-Arizona State vs. 10-St. Mary's
@Miami
3-Clemson vs. 14-Weber State/Big Sky
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Oklahoma State

New to the field: Vermont, Dayton, Providence, Weber State, Virginia Commonwealth, Ball State, Texas Christian, Southern California, Holy Cross, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Last four in the field: Brigham Young, Oklahoma State, Providence, Southern California
First four left out: Utah, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, South Carolina
Next four left out: Stanford, Mississippi State, UAB, Illinois State

A reminder, new polls will be up shortly.