Howard Salwasser's Bracket Watch

To Big To Succeed?

2012-02-13T16:01:00.002-06:00

The following post could have been titled like an old Rocky and Bullwinkle cartoon, except there is no voice over guy to read them out:

AOLTimeWarner, Mountain West Conference USA. Mountain West Conference USA, AOLTimeWarner

OR

The Frequent Flier Conference

OR

Anyone want to televise this piece of cowpie?

The fact that both Conference USA and the Mountain West are planning a shotgun wedding after both leagues were picked apart of their most visible members is puzzling to me, and to others as well. Not that I disapprove of the merger, it's just the fact that UNLV and East Carolina will now share a conference home doesn't make the new association look good in the eyes of two discriminating judges, television(namely, the Worldwide Monopolizer) and the BCS(aka those determined to rip apart said leagues). So once the new league is announced, those who hate both current leagues will immediately denounce it as a failure. In fact some have already done so preemptively.

Bracket Watch '12 - At the far turn of the season.

2012-02-13T10:40:00.000-06:00

Less than four weeks remain for teams jockeying for NCAA tournament position. And after another heartstopping weekend, here's how the projected field plays out. As is the case, all projections are done as if the season had ended after the last game of the previous night. All conference leaders are per accseeds.info

Final Four Pairings:
South(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. Midwest(3)

First Four Pairings:
Tuesday: Stony Brook(America East) vs. Mississippi Valley State(Southwestern); Miami(FL) vs. Washington
Wednesday: Texas-Arlington(Southland) vs. Long Island(Northeast); Seton Hall vs. Purdue

SOUTH Region

Louisville
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Stony Brook/MVSU
8-Connecticut vs. 9-Memphis
Albuquerque
4-Wichita State(Missouri Valley) vs. 13-Oral Roberts(Summit)
5-San Diego State vs. 12-Minnesota
Pittsburgh
2-Georgetown vs. 15-Loyola(MD)(Metro Atlantic)
7-Murray State(Ohio Valley) vs. 10-Texas
Greensboro
3-North Carolina vs. 14-Drexel(Colonial)
6-Wisconsin vs. 11-Alabama

WEST Region

Greensboro
1-Duke vs. 16-UTA/Long Island
8-Iowa State vs. 9-Harvard(Ivy)
Portland
4-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 13-Davidson(Southern)
5-Louisville vs. 12-Arizona
Omaha
2-Kansas vs. 15-Weber State(Big Sky)
7-Notre Dame vs. 10-Saint Louis
Columbus
3-Michigan vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Florida vs. 11-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)

EAST Region

Pittsburgh
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-UNC Asheville(Big South)
8-Creighton vs. 9-New Mexico
Nashville
4-Florida State(Atlantic Coast) vs. 13-Seton Hall/Purdue
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-North Carolina State
Louisville
2-Ohio State vs. 15-Mercer(Atlantic Sun)
7-Southern Mississippi(Conference USA) vs. 10-California(Pacific-12)
Albuquerque
3-Baylor vs. 14-Nevada(Western Athletic)
6-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 11-Brigham Young

MIDWEST Region

Omaha
1-Missouri(Big 12) vs. 16-Norfolk State(Mid-Eastern)
8-Mississippi State vs. 9-West Virginia
Portland
4-UNLV(Mountain West) vs. 13-Miami(FL)/Washington
5-Indiana vs. 12-Long Beach State(Big West)
Columbus
2-Michigan State(Big Ten) vs. 15-Valparaiso(Horizon)
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Kansas State
Nashville
3-Marquette vs. 14-Akron(Mid-American)
6-Virginia vs. 11-Illinois

Note: Seton Hall and NC State swapped seed lines to avoid conference conflicts in the 2nd round.

Last four in the field(by seed list number): Miami(FL)-49; Purdue-50; NC State-52; Washington-53
First four left out: Cincinnati, Belmont, Xavier, Wyoming
Next four left out: Mississippi, Northwestern, Oregon, Northern Iowa
Under Consideration: Central Florida, Colorado State, St. Joseph's, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Maryland, Colorado, South Dakota State, Iona, Ohio

Please note that the next projection will be made out on Friday.

Could next week be the week?

2012-02-09T19:16:00.002-06:00

With the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee conducting their annual mock bracket AND the Championships/Sports Management Cabinet holding their bi-annual meetings, all occuring next week Indianapolis, you think we might get some news on who will host the East Regional in 2013?

If you haven't been reading this blog, back in 2009, the NCAA named the host sites for the early rounds of the 2011, 12 and 13 tournaments. But one was left open. It has been speculated that the NCAA wants the regional held at Madison Square Garden, which is undergoing a massive renovation. But that won't be finished until the fall of 2013(The recent NBA Lockout will make the construction schedule this summer even more maddening). On top of all that there are scheduling conflicts with the Knicks, the Rangers, and the Circus, especially the Circus, to deal with. Any and all attempts to unearth anything that would lead to a clue have turned up fruitless. Hopefully with the two groups meeting, we might get some news on the East Regional front, especially with the fact that both the NBA and the NHL have to get their schedules ready for next season. But if not, the whole thing may move to as late as September. With tickets due to go on sale April 1st, if not sooner, the naming of the site needs to occur as quickly as possible.

Open Court - February 9th

2012-02-09T17:00:00.000-06:00

BEAST MODE.

That was the state of mood Duke's Austin Rivers was in when he sank a cold-blooded, walk-off three-ball against North Carolina last night. Who's gonna be in beast mode tonight? Discuss freely.

Open Court - February 7th

2012-02-07T17:27:00.000-06:00

Sorry about the lack of open courts in recent weeks. Enjoy this one tonight. Highlighting tonight's action is Florida at Kentucky as the Gators try to halt the Wildcats' streak of 48 straight wins in Rupp Arena.

Bracket Watch '12 - M.I.A. not included

2012-02-06T10:12:00.002-06:00

Anyone(other than me, save possibly for Kyle Wheliston) see last night's Superb Owl halftime act? I'll save you the trouble if you didn't. Someone executed a bird flip. End of story. No on to this week's field: As always, it is done as if the season ended the day before.

Final Four pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. Midwest(3)

First Four pairings:
Tuesday: Texas-Arlington(Southland) vs. Mississippi Valley State(Southwestern); Central Florida vs. Cincinnati
Wednesday: UNC Asheville(Big South) vs. Stony Brook(America East); Texas vs. Wyoming

EAST Region

Pittsburgh
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-UTA/MVSU
8-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 9-Illinois
Portland
4-San Diego State(Mountain West) vs. 13-Long Beach State(Big West)(Note: Rematch could not be avoided.)
5-Wichita State vs. 12-Iona(Metro Atlantic)
Greensboro
2-North Carolina vs. 15-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
7-Connecticut vs. 10-Iowa State
Nashville
3-Florida vs. 14-Drexel(Colonial)
6-Michigan vs. 11-California

WEST Region

Omaha
1-Missouri(Big 12) vs. 16-UNCA/Stony Brook
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-Southern Mississippi(Conference USA)
Columbus
4-Marquette vs. 13-Texas/Wyoming
5-Indiana vs. 12-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)
Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-Minnesota
Portland
3-UNLV vs. 14-Cleveland State(Horizon)
6-Louisville vs. 11-Brigham Young

SOUTH Region

Louisville
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Weber State(Big Sky)
8-West Virginia vs. 9-New Mexico
Portland
4-Creighton(Missouri Valley) vs. 13-Central Florida/Cincinnati
5-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 12-Purdue
Columbus
2-Michigan State vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Alabama vs. 10-Memphis
Albuquerque
3-Baylor vs. 14-Oral Roberts(Summit)
6-Virginia vs. 11-Washington(Pacific-12)

MIDWEST Region

Pittsburgh
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Norfolk State(Mid-Eastern)
8-Kansas State vs. 9-Notre Dame
Louisville
4-Georgetown vs. 13-Davidson(Southern)
5-Murray State(Ohio Valley) vs. 12-Colorado State
Omaha
2-Kansas vs. 15-Akron(Mid-American)
7-Harvard(Ivy) vs. 10-Gonzaga
Nashville
3-Florida State(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-Nevada(Western Athletic)
6-Mississippi State vs. 11-Xavier

Last four in the field: Texas, Wyoming, Central Florida, Cincinnati
First four left out: Saint Louis, Seton Hall, Dayton, Northwestern
Next four left out: NC State, Northern Iowa, Mississippi, Arizona
Under Consideration: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Oregon, Miami(FL), Missouri State, South Dakota State, Massachusetts, LaSalle, South Florida, Marshall, Valparaiso

If Kyle Wheliston reads this blog...

2012-02-05T20:58:00.001-06:00

...the final score is...

New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17.

In fact, if he doesn't read this board, someone should send this post immediately upon reading.

P.S. The bracket has been made out(during halftime no less), but I will post it in the morning.

Bracket Watch - January 30th

2012-01-30T12:30:00.000-06:00

Last week I promised to present a tournament based on European Soccer tourneys, but when trying to run it I ran into a lot of trouble. So I've had to put the tournament on the shelf until the end of the season. Now onto this week's projections, which look rather ragged after the week that has occured(Though, admittedly, not as ragged as they were the week previous).

Note: All projections are done as if the season has ended already, with no attempt to predict the future. Conference leaders are determined by each leagues' tiebreakers(Which is new this year, previously, if no H2H meetings had been played, I would revert to the RPI. This year, I won't chance it and will use the criterias the conferences are using to determine seeds) .

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. South(4)
Midwest(2) vs. West(3)

First Four Games
Tuesday
Stony Brook(America East) vs. Mississippi Valley State(Southwestern)
Illinois vs. Arkansas
Wednesday
Texas-Arlington(Southland) vs. UNC Asheville(Big South)
North Carolina State vs. Cincinnati

EAST Region

Pittsburgh
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Stony Brook/MVSU
8-Harvard(Ivy) vs. 9-Iowa State
Columbus
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-LaSalle(Atlantic 10)
5-Murray State(Ohio Valley) vs. 12-Louisville
Albuquerque
2-Baylor vs. 15-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Colorado State
Greensboro
3-North Carolina vs. 14-George Mason(Colonial)
6-Connecticut vs. 11-Iona(Metro Atlantic)

SOUTH Region

Pittsburgh
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Long Island(Northeast)
8-Alabama vs. 9-Long Beach State(Big West)
Nashville
4-Georgetown vs. 13-Davidson(Southern)
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Xavier
Greensboro
2-Duke vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Wichita State vs. 10-New Mexico
Nashville
3-Florida vs. 14-NC State/Cincinnati
6-Michigan vs. 11-Seton Hall

MIDWEST Region

Louisville
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Norfolk State(Mid-Eastern)
8-Kansas State vs. 9-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)
Portland
4-San Diego State(Mountain West) vs. 13-Notre Dame
5-Indiana vs. 12-Dayton
Omaha
2-Missouri vs. 15-Akron(Mid-American)
7-Virginia vs. 10-Minnesota
Albuquerque
3-Creighton(Missouri Valley) vs. 14-Nevada(Western Athletic)
6-Mississippi State vs. 11-Memphis

WEST Region

Omaha
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-UTA/UNCA
8-California(Pacific-12) vs. 9-Purdue
Louisville
4-Marquette vs. 13-Illinois/Arkansas
5-Florida State(Atlantic Coast) vs. 12-Oral Roberts(Summit)
Portland
2-Unlv vs. 15-Weber State(Big Sky)
7-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 10-Temple
Columbus
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Cleveland State(Horizon)
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Southern Mississipps

Switches: St. Mary's and West Virginia swapped seed lines for better early round placement.

Last four in the field: Illinois, Arkansas, NC State, Cincinnati
First four left out: Washington, Texas, Mississippi, Brigham Young
Next four left out: Massachusetts, Stanford, South Florida, Marshall
Also under consideration: Miami(FL), Saint Louis, Pittsburgh, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Central Florida, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wyoming, Arizona, Oregon, New Mexico State

A season-long tournament?

2012-01-25T16:09:00.002-06:00

This afternoon I happened to watch the Carling Cup semifinal tie between Liverpool and Manchester City(Liverpool won the 2-game aggregate series 3-2) and wondered whether or not a season long tournament would be appropriate for College Basketball.

First, a backgrounder
Internationally, most soccer leagues(MLS and Australia's A-League are notable exceptions) are devoid of playoffs, everything is determined by how well you do over a long season. To compensate, there are open-style, season-long tournaments conducted by national governing bodies. Thus you get competitions like the FA Cup, the Copa del Rey, and the U.S. Open Cup.

Now, the poser
Could you see something like this in college basketball? Where everyone has a chance to win it? Probably not, but it's worth trying out. The tournament would involve every Division I school playing an FA Cup-style tournament, with brackets drawn after every round and every team having the right to host a game(ex.; Kentucky drawing a road game at Portland State, or Kansas hosting Duke before the semis). Theoretically, such a tournament would have the following characteristics(using this year's Division I list; excluding Nebraska-Omaha):

*Round 1: 216 teams compete to move on(these would include most of the lower levels of D-I)
*Round 2: Round 1 winners play-off
*Round 3: 54 teams from conferences like Conference USA, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, and Horizon League play Round 2 winners in hopes of playing in;
*Round 4: The 74 teams from the BCS 6 join the competition, playing for 7 additional rounds of knock-out competition before determining the cup winner.

Pros
It would make the regular season more valuable.
Allows for smaller schools to reap more benefits and visibility.
The final would easily sell out and TV ratings would be better than what the National Championship Game gets now.

Cons
Every BCS 6 school would hate having to go anywhere.
Length of the tournament would be a major problem.
Some schools(particularly the West Coast) don't want to be in the wrong side of the pool.
Would immediately render the NCAA tournament(and the various conference tournaments) defunct.
College Football would get very angry of the mere idea of College Basketball infringing on their turf.
Controversy would flare when a non-BCS school wins the tournament.

Tomorrow, I'll present how a FA Cup-style tournament would work with the alignment this season.

Bracket Watch '12 - January 23rd.

2012-01-23T14:30:00.000-06:00

After a few weeks of just seeds, I now have a bracket to put them in. And I'll tell you this much, it will be difficult for anyone to correctly pick all 68 teams this year, never mind getting close with their seeds.

Final Four Pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. Midwest(3)

The First Four:
Tuesday: Boston University(America East) vs. Mississippi Valley State(Southwestern); Minnesota vs. Xavier
Wednesday: UNC Asheville(Big South) vs. Texas-Arlington(Southland); Saint Louis vs. Marshall

EAST Regional

@ Pittsburgh
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. Boston University/MVSU
8-Wichita State vs. 9-Virginia
@ Albuquerque
4-Florida vs. 13-Minnesota/Xavier
5-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 12-Long Beach State
@ Greensboro
2-North Carolina vs. 15-Norfolk State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Louisville vs. 10-New Mexico
@ Columbus
3-Michigan(Big Ten) vs. 14-Central Florida(Conference USA)
6-Kansas State vs. 11-Temple

WEST Regional

@ Greensboro
1-Duke vs. 16-Eastern Michigan(Mid-American)
8-Wisconsin vs. 9-California(Pacific-12)
@ Nashville
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Saint Louis/Marshall
5-Connecticut vs. 12-North Carolina State
@ Omaha
2-Missouri vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Harvard(Ivy) vs. 10-Purdue
@ Portland
3-Nevada-Las Vegas vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Indiana vs. 11-Oral Roberts(Summit)

SOUTH Region

@ Louisville
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Valparaiso(Horizon)
8-Seton Hall vs. 9-Dayton(Atlantic 10)
@ Nashville
4-Florida State(Atlantic Coast) vs. 13-Iowa State
5-Michigan State vs. 12-Southern Mississippi
@ Albuquerque
2-Baylor vs. 15-George Mason(Colonial)
7-Marquette vs. 10-Illinois
@ Pittsburgh
3-Georgetown vs. 14-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
6-Mississippi State vs. 11-Colorado State

MIDWEST Region

@ Omaha
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-UNC Asheville/UT Arlington
8-Alabama vs. 9-Gonzaga
@ Columbus
4-Murray State(Ohio Valley) vs. 13-Davidson(Southern)
5-West Virgina vs. 12-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)
@ Louisville
2-Ohio State vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Cincinnati vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Portland
3-Creighton(Missouri Valley) vs. 14-Nevada(Western Athletic)
6-San Diego State(Mountain West) vs. 11-Iona(Metro Atlantic)

Last four in the field: Minnesota, Xavier, Saint Louis, Marshall
First four left out: Oregon, South Florida, Memphis, Stanford
Next four left out: Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Mississippi
Also under consideration: La Salle, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh, Iowa, Oklahoma, Cleveland State, Akron, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Arizona, Arkansas, Brigham Young

For Note Purposes Only
Look for the State of the Bubble series next week.

Open Court - January 18th

2012-01-19T17:33:00.001-06:00

Enjoy the night.

Guess Who?

2012-01-19T12:00:00.000-06:00

It's that time again to start posting blind resumes. Here's the first one:

(Data from rpiforecast.com)

Current RPI: 56
Current SOS: 98
Current Record: 14-4
Current Conf Record: 4-1
Current Record vs RPI 1-50: 2-2
Key wins: St. Mary's, Southern Mississippi
Bad loss: Arkansas-Little Rock

Do you know this team? If you do, post a comment.

Open Court - MLK Day

2012-01-16T10:30:00.000-06:00

Since there are some early games today, I'm opening Open Court early for those watching some of the afternoon games. But most of the action is going on tonight. Specifically, Kansas hosts an unbeaten Baylor squad who has wins against Northwestern, BYU, and West Virginia. Can the Bears extend their streak to 18? Or will the alpha male Jayhawks assert their dominance? Another unbeaten team, Syracuse, is also in action. But expect the Orange to continue their winning ways vs. a Pittsburgh team that is close to losing the whole plot(The Panthers are winless in Big East play).

Bracket Watch '12-Monday Seeds

2012-01-16T10:00:00.000-06:00

Over the weekend, I decided to only do a seeding of the field this week. Don't worry, I'll be bracketing by next week.

*Indicates a First Four team.

1-Syracuse(East), Kentucky(Midwest), Duke(South), Baylor(West)
2-Ohio State, Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State
3-Seton Hall, Connecticut, Indiana, Georgetown
4-Marquette, Illinois, Florida, Murray State
5-Missouri, Alabama, Michigan, UNLV
6-Louisville, Florida State, Creighton, West Virginia
7-San Diego State, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Virginia
8-Gonzaga, Purdue, Stanford, Cincinnati
9-Mississippi State, Wisconsin, St. Mary's, Temple
10-Harvard, New Mexico, Memphis, Dayton
11-California, Wichita State, Marshall, LSU
12-Oregon*, Long Beach State, Colorado State, Ohio*, Southern Mississippi*, Saint Louis*
13-Middle Tennessee, Nevada, Oral Roberts, Cleveland State
14-Akron, Long Island, Weber State, George Mason
15-Belmont, UNC Asheville, Iona, Norfolk State
16-Bucknell, Davidson, Stony Brook*, Pennsylvania*, Texas-Arlington*, Mississippi Valley State*

Last four in the field: Oregon, Ohio, Southern Mississippi, Saint Louis
First four left out: Mississippi, Xavier, Northern Iowa, Texas
Next four left out: Arizona, North Carolina State, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
Also under consideration: Maryland, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Northwestern, Oklahoma, Illinois State, UCLA, Colorado, Washington, Utah State

Open Court - January 13th-15th

2012-01-13T15:00:00.000-06:00

First off, yes I mistakenly omitted Virginia and included Notre Dame in my first field projection. At least some people noticed.

Now for the fun part, there's acutally going to be some good games for tonight. So I'm opening this Open Court thread early to allow for some conversation. Also, I won't be able to post tomorrow as I'm going to watch Red Bull Crashed Ice down at the Cathedral(which gives you some idea of where I live).

Open Court-January 9th

2012-01-09T17:23:00.002-06:00

Welcome to Open Court. The official daily open thread to everything college basketball. I'm launching this tonight as a replacement for Bracketology 101's daily open threads. As you're well aware, Chris and Craig are in a holding pattern(what with both of them having families to care and nourish), so I've taken up the initiative to have an open forum where one can spout off on College Hoops. I'll be be here each morning to share my observations as well. So go ahead and spout off whatever you have on your minds.

NOTE: You can talk about tonight's BCS Championship game. Just as fair to do so.

Bracket Watch '12 - The season debut

2012-01-09T11:30:00.001-06:00

Well, conference play is underway in most of the country. Making this the perfect time to put up the first field of 68. Seeds are up first this week(the full bracket will be up later this afternoon).

1-Syracuse(East), Kentucky(South), Ohio State(Midwest), Baylor(West)
2-North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, Indiana
3-Michigan State, Louisville, Missouri, Alabama
4-Unlv, Georgetown, Michigan, Florida
5-Kansas State, Saint Louis, Murray State, Connecticut
6-Purdue, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Marquette
7-San Diego State, Gonzaga, Creighton, Notre Dame
8-Illinois, Kansas State, Stanford, Mississippi State
9-Memphis, Harvard, St. Mary's, Dayton
10-New Mexico, Wisconsin, Texas, Temple
11-Arizona, Florida State, Southern Mississippi, Long Beach State
12-Colorado, Middle Tennessee, Iona, Marshall
13-Wichita State*, Vanderbilt*, Nevada, Virginia Tech*, Ohio*, Cleveland State
14-George Mason, Illinois State, Davidson, Belmont
15-Weber State, Buffalo, Bucknell, Oral Roberts
16-Lamar, Norfolk State, Central Connecticut State*, UNC Asheville*, Stony Brook*, Texas Southern*

*Will play in the First Four.

Last four in the field: Wichita State, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Ohio
First four left out: Pittsburgh, Northern Iowa, Xavier, California
Next four left out: Saint Joseph's, Kent State, Northwestern, Central Florida
Also under consideration: North Carolina State, Rutgers, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri State, Washington

I'm back!

2012-01-08T08:57:00.003-06:00

It turns out we only lost the internet for about 12 hours last Tuesday, so I'll have the first real projections for the season tomorrow.

Also coming soon
Since Bracketology 101 isn't having any new posts soon(But not without reason, both Chris and Craig became fathers recently, which, IMO, is more important than just being bracketologists.), I'll be opening new daily talk threads so you can comment on the games. Look for those to start up tomorrow.

Some bad news.

2012-01-02T12:00:00.002-06:00

At this time, the internet bill at my house is a month past due, and my brother is looking for a way to find it. Because of this, I cannot guarantee that a projection of the bracket can be done this week, or next. So while I will be doing a bracket, it might not be posted this week. If it's still out next week, I won't bother. I still intend on doing brackets in March, but it's not a guarantee that it will happen.

Back from the dead

2011-12-16T09:30:00.000-06:00

Yes, I'm back, and with something that's been bothering me. I'm still trying to find out some of the earliest information on NASDAQ-100 listing changes. Recall my post from January, 2010: http://bracketwatch.blogspot.com/2010/01/ot-building-nasdaq-100in-19-19-1985.html. Well I'm still hopeful that someone out there has better information than I was able to extract. If anyone can help me, please e-mail me at pinkerson@webtv.net and maybe we can convince NASDAQ to release the information to the public.

What will happen first?

2011-12-05T11:30:00.001-06:00

The NCAA naming the East Regional site for 2013?

OR

The end of the world?

That is the question that must be asked.

It's 15 months until the 2013 tournament, and as far as I'm concerned, it's too late to continue delaying the announcement. In fact, the one time I tried to pose the question on who will be hosting, I got nothing in response. And just as well. A few months ago, the NCAA should have told the most likely host, Madison Square Garden that it wanted a hard, inflexible deadline to wrap up it's needed renovations. Otherwise, the NCAA would select an alternate. But instead, MSG has apparently told them it needed more time(The NBA lockout will likely force back even more work to Summer, 2013), but that they still want to host. Whatever the case, the announcement must come soon, or else a lot of people will be like me. Wondering where the East Region will be held in 2013.

And another thing
MSG won't be able to host in 2014, because of Wrestlemania. So if it isn't 2013, 2015 is next in line.

The story of the conferences-Ivy League

2011-11-20T14:16:00.002-06:00

Linked by a common bond of academic excellence, strong research capabilities, and roots in pre-revolution America, the Ivy League is without question, the most prestigious collection of universites in the world, not just this country. Naturally you would think that these schools would have their fingerprints on athletics, right, well yes, historically. These days, the Ivy League, or Ivy Group, is an inconsistent mid-major league, but in the early days of organized university athletics, they were the major power conference of it's time. Most of it centered on football, but they were pretty good at hoops too.

The Early Years

In 1900, Nine years after Dr. James Naismith created the sport of basketball at today's Springfield College, Harvard and Yale joined with four other highly prestigious schools; Amherst, Holy Cross, Trinity College, and Williams to form the New England Inter-Collegiate Basketball League, the first recognized association of universities formed to played basketball. It lasted all of one season, when the Bulldogs and Crimson left to form a new association with Columbia, Cornell, and Princeton; calling it the Eastern Intercollegiate Basketball League. The basic structure of the league called for all members to play each other, twice during the season. Soon after, champions of this league started arranging championship playoffs with the Western Conference(today's Big Ten). These lasted only a few years before it was ended(mostly due to travel, but also for two seasons, the EIBL did not play a league schedule). In the meantime, Pennsylvania joined for 1904, followed by Harvard's withdrawal after 1909, and Dartmouth joined in 1912. It would remain at six until 1934, when Harvard returned.

Enter the Ivy
For 1953-54, Brown was finally persuaded to join the EIBL, but that was a precursor of things to come, for in the spring of 1954, the eight schools agreed to combine all their athletic pursuits into a single all-sports alliance, the Ivy League. Thus, 1955 was the last year for the EIBL. There has not been a change in membership since.

Doing things differently
Today, the Ivy League does several things differently than anyother league within Division I. For instance:
*The league is the only one not to conduct a postseason tournament, due to academic schedules. To compensate, in years where there is a tie for first, a one game, neutral-site, playoff is held.
*It also does not award any athletic scholarships of any kind. All scholarships are awarded on need, only.
*It also schedules games, again for academic reasons, only on Fridays and Saturdays, save for the Penn-Princeton games, which are played on Tuesdays.

Success
In the Helms Foundation period of national championships, the Ivy recorded several national titles. Columbia won three of these(1904, 1905, 1910), while Yale(1901 and 1903) and Penn(1920 and 1921) won twice, and Princeton won it in 1925. Dartmouth won it in 1906, but were not an EIBL member during that period.
Since the NCAA tournament era began in 1939, no Ivy League school has won, although Dartmouth came closest, twice, finishing runner-up in 1942 and 1944. Since 1951, Princeton came the closest, finishing third in 1965 behind the play of Bill Bradley, while Penn placed 4th in 1979. The Tigers are the only school to take home an National Invitational Tournament title, winning the 1975 crown.

Stability
Very strong. Except for a brief period in the late 1940's and early 1950's when Penn looked to breakaway due to issues with the televising of football games, the Ivies have remained locked together in the longest running conference configuration. With the exception of Cornell, which came along in 1865, all members can trace their roots to pre-revolution America. In short, don't look for anyone to join, or leave, the Ivy League as long as it exists.

The story of the conferences-Intro post

2011-11-20T14:10:00.002-06:00

Welcome to a new series of posts detailing(in basketball terms) with the stories of the 52 historically recognized conferences of NCAA Division I. Each post details the whos and whens of membership, their historical success, and their prospects for future growth and stability. I'll detail each and every conference in order of creation, going from the Ivy League to the Great West. So sit back and enjoy this series.

Predicting the finish-The Bracket

2011-11-07T08:00:00.000-06:00

Sorry for the long delay on the bracket. It was finished a few days ago, but forgot to put it up because I was too busy. So, let's get to it.

Final Four Pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. East(3)

The First Four
(UD Arena; Dayton, OH; University of Dayton)

March 13th
Game 1: Wagner(Northeast) vs. Alabama State(Southwestern)
Game 2: Brigham Young vs. Cincinnati
March 14th
Game 1: South Dakota State(Summit) vs. UNC Asheville(Big South)
Game 2: Creighton vs. Mississippi State

MIDWEST Region
(Edward Jones Dome; St. Louis; Missouri Valley Conference)

@ Consol Energy Center; Pittsburgh; Duquesne University
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Wagner/Alabama State
8-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 9-Florida State
@ Rose Garden Arena; Portland; University of Oregon
4-Wichita State vs. 13-North Texas(Sun Belt)
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ The Pit; Albuquerque; University of New Mexico
2-Baylor(Big 12) vs. 15-Lamar(Southland)
7-Washington vs. 10-Marquette
@ Nationwide Arena; Columbus; Ohio State University
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-Western Michigan(Mid-American)
6-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 11-Northwestern

WEST Region
US Airways Center; Phoenix; Arizona State University

@ Pittsburgh
1-Connecticut(Big East) vs. 16-Stony Brook(America East)
8-Clemson vs. 9-Michigan State
@ Albuquerque
4-Arizona(Pacific-12) vs. 13-Marshall(Conference USA)
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Brigham Young/Cincinnati
@ Greensboro Coliseum; Greensboro, NC; Atlantic Coast Conference
2-Duke vs. 15-Loyola(MD)(Metro Atlantic)
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial)
@ Portland
3-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 14-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
6-Michigan vs. 11-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)

SOUTH Region
Georgia Dome; Atlanta; Georgia Tech

@ Greensboro
1-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Hampton(Mid-Eastern)
8-Old Dominion vs. 9-St. Mary's
@ KFC Yum! Center; Louisville; University of Louisville
4-Florida vs. 13- Appalachian State(Southern)
5-Notre Dame vs. 12-Creighton/Mississippi State
@ Bridgestone Arena; Nashville; Ohio Valley Conference
2-Memphis vs. 15-Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
7-Louisville vs. 10-Miami(FL)
@ Century Link Center; Omaha; Creighton University and Missouri Valley Conference
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Alabama vs. 11-Detroit

EAST Region
TD Garden; Boston

@ Columbus
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-South Dakota State/UNC Asheville
8-Missouri vs. 9-Unlv
@ Nashville
4-Purdue vs. 13-Harvard(Ivy)
5-Virginia Tech vs. 12-Indiana State(Missouri Valley)
@ Louisville
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Lehigh(Patriot)
7-Xavier vs. 10-Central Florida
@ Omaha
3-Kansas vs. 14-Milwaukee(Horizon)
6-Ucla vs. 11-Georgetown

Last four in the field: Brigham Young, Cincinnati, Creighton, Mississippi State
First four left out: Saint Louis, Villanova, Oklahoma State, Uab
Next four left out: Indiana, Virginia, George Mason, California

Reminder: The first Bracket Watch will be posted on January 3rd.

Drama in the City of Jealousy

2011-11-02T12:00:00.000-05:00

Yes, I'll have my preseason predictions for the bracket up today, but I couldn't pass this story up.

As the Big East(as in Big East of the Pacific Time Zone) prepares to add 6 more schools, one school who's in the Big East's backyard is going to be left out because of envy. The school is Temple, and their main tormentor is Villanova. SBNation's Temple page(link forthcoming) has the scoop:

The Wildcats reportedly do not want to share the Philadelphia market with another Big East team. There had been some speculation that Villanova’s concerns about adding Temple as a basketball school would lead the conference to extend the Owls a football only invite. However, at least according to McMurphy’s source, that will not be the case.

SNIP

Temple fans will cry foul about an uneven playing field – but if you want the basketball playing field to be even, football needs to be too. And if the Big East isn’t willing to extend that olive branch, Villanova should be opposed to sharing their dominance in the Philadelphia market, a known hoops haven. So no, Villanova isn’t scared of Temple. They’re just being savvy and not giving up a territory that they dominate with nothing in return.

Sounds like envy right? Of course it is. It's also a sign to the new football playing schools that it's the hoop schools that dominate the agenda in this league. And that might not change until those who play football make their break. And then they might welcome the Owls to their ranks.

Predicting the finish-Conference races(Part 2)

2011-11-01T12:00:00.000-05:00

Onward we go with the regular season finishes(before the season even starts!

Key:
Conference Tournament Champion
Regular Season Champion, NIT Automatic Bid

Mid-Eastern
1. Coppin State
2. HAMPTON
3. North Carolina Central
4. Morgan State
5. Howard
6. Norfolk State
7. North Carolina A&T
8. Bethune-Cookman
9. Delaware State
10. South Carolina State
11. Florida A&M
12. Umes
13. Savannah State

Missouri Valley
1. Wichita State
2. Creighton
3. INDIANA STATE
4. Missouri State
5. Evansville
6. Northern Iowa
7. Drake
8. Illinois State
9. Southern Illinois
10. Bradley

Mountain West
1. NEW MEXICO
2. Unlv
3. San Diego State
4. Texas Christian
5. Boise State
6. Colorado State
7. Air Force
8. Wyoming

Northeast
1. Long Island
2. Robert Morris
3. Central Connecticut State
4. WAGNER
5. Mount St. Mary's
6. St. Francis(NY)
7. Quinnipiac
8. Sacred Heart
9. Bryant
10. Monmouth
11. St. Francis(PA)
12. Fairleigh Dickinson

Ohio Valley
1. Tennessee Tech
2. AUSTIN PEAY
3. Murray State
4. Tennessee State
5. Jacksonville State
6. SE Missouri State
7. Eastern Kentucky
8. Morehead State
9. Tennessee-Martin
10. Eastern Illinois
11. SIU-Edwardsville

Pacific 12
1. ARIZONA
2. Ucla
3. Washington
4. California
5. Southern California
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. Arizona State
9. Washington State
10. Colorado
11. Oregon State
12. Utah

Patriot League
1. Bucknell
2. LEHIGH
3. American
4. Army
5. Holy Cross
6. Colgate
7. Lafayette
8. Navy

Southeastern
1. KENTUCKY
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. Vanderbilt
5. Mississippi State
6. Mississippi
7. Arkansas
8. Georgia
9. Tennessee
10. Louisiana State
11. South Carolina
12. Auburn

Southern
North Division
1. Western Carolina
2. APPALACHIAN STATE
3. Elon
4. Chattanooga
5. UNC Greensboro
6. Samford
South Division
1. Davidson
2. College of Charleston
3. Furman
4. The Citadel
5. Wofford
6. Georgia Southern

Southland
East Division
1. LAMAR
2. Northwestern State
3. SE Louisiana
4. Central Arkansas
5. McNeese State
6. Nicholls State
West Division
1. Texas-Arlington
2. Utsa
3. Stephen F. Austin
4. Sam Houston State
5. Texas State
6. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Southwestern
1. ALABAMA STATE
2. Jackson State
3. Texas Southern
4. Alabama A&M
5. Prairie View A&M
6. Mississippi Valley State
7. Uapb
8. Alcorn State
9. Grambling
10. Southern

Summit
1. Oral Roberts
2. Oakland
3. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
4. North Dakota State
5. Iupui
6. Southern Utah
7. Missouri-Kansas City
8. South Dakota
9. Ipfw
10. Western Illinois

Sun Belt
East Division
1. Florida Atlantic
2. South Alabama
3. Middle Tennessee
4. Western Kentucky
5. Florida International
6. Troy
West Division
1. NORTH TEXAS
2. Arkansas State
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
4. Ualr
5. Denver
6. Louisiana-Monroe

West Coast
1. GONZAGA
2. St. Mary's
3. Brigham Young
4. Portland
5. Santa Clara
6. Pepperdine
7. San Francisco
8. San Diego
9. Loyola Marymount

Western Athletic
1. UTAH STATE
2. Nevada
3. New Mexico State
4. Idaho
5. Fresno State
6. Hawai'i
7. San Jose State
8. Louisiana Tech

And last, but not least, the Great West(if you constitute west as being west of the Hudson.)
1. NJIT
2. Utah Valley
3. North Dakota
4. Houston Baptist
5. Texas-Pan American
6. Chicago State

Predicting the finish-Conference Races(Part 1)

2011-11-01T11:00:00.000-05:00

As I explained last week, I was planning on unveiling my conference predictions after releasing my preseason bracket. But that was before I decided it was better to release my regular season predictions first. So with that out of the way, here now are my predictions for the 32 conferences. For space purposes, it's divided into two parts.

Key:
Conference Tournament Champion
Regular Season Champion, NIT Automatic Bid

America East
1. STONY BROOK
2. Albany
3. Hartford
4. Vermont
5. Maine
6. Boston University
7. New Hampshire
8. Binghamton
9. Maryland-Baltimore County

Atlantic Coast
1. NORTH CAROLINA
2. Duke
3. Virginia Tech
4. Clemson
5. Florida State
6. Miami(FL)
7. Virginia
8. NC State
9. Boston College
10. Maryland
11. Georgia Tech
12. Wake Forest

Atlantic Sun
1. BELMONT
2. Jacksonville
3. North Florida
4. East Tennessee State
5. Lipscomb
6. South Carolina Upstate
7. Stetson
8. Kennesaw State
9. Mercer
10. Florida Gulf Coast

Atlantic 10
1. Xavier
2. TEMPLE
3. Saint Louis
4. Duquesne
5. Charlotte
6. St. Bonaventure
7. Massachusetts
8. George Washington
9. St. Joseph's
10. Dayton
11. Richmond
12. Rhode Island
13. La Salle
14. Fordham

Big East
1. Syracuse
2. CONNECTICUT
3. Pittsburgh
4. Notre Dame
5. Louisville
6. Marquette
7. Cincinnati
8. Georgetown
9. West Virginia
10. Villanova
11. St. John's
12. Rutgers
13. Providence
14. DePaul
15. Seton Hall
16. South Florida

Big Sky
1. WEBER STATE
2. Montana
3. Northern Colorado
4. Montana State
5. Idaho State
6. Northern Arizona
7. Portland State
8. Sacramento State
9. Eastern Washington

Big South
1. Liberty
2. Radford
3. UNC ASHEVILLE
4. Coastal Carolina
5. Winthrop
6. High Point
7. Virginia Military
8. Campbell
9. Charleston Southern
10. Gardner-Webb
11. Presbyterian

Big Ten
1. OHIO STATE
2. Wisconsin
3. Purdue
4. Michigan
5. Northwestern
6. Michigan State
7. Indiana
8. Minnesota
9. Penn State
10. Illinois
11. Nebraska
12. Iowa

Big 12
1. BAYLOR
2. Kansas
3. Texas A&M
4. Missouri
5. Oklahoma State
6. Texas
7. Kansas State
8. Oklahoma
9. Texas Tech
10. Iowa State

Big West
1. Long Beach State
2. Cal State Fullerton
3. UCSB
4. UC Davis
5. UC Irvine
6. Pacific
7. UC Riverside
8. Cal Poly
9. Northridge State

Colonial
1.VCU
2. Old Dominion
3. George Mason
4. James Madison
5. UNC Wilmington
6. William & Mary
7. Northeastern
8. Drexel
9. Hofstra
10. Delaware
11. Towson
12. Georgia State

Conference USA
1. Memphis
2. Central Florida
3. MARSHALL
4. Uab
5. Tulsa
6. Southern Methodist
7. Rice
8. Tulane
9. Utep
10. East Carolina
11. Houston
12. Southern Mississippi

Horizon League
1. Detroit
2. Cleveland State
3. MILWAUKEE
4. Butler
5. Wright State
6. Green Bay
7. Loyola of Chicago
8. Valparaiso
9. Illinois-Chicago
10. Youngstown State

Ivy League
1. HARVARD
2. Princeton
3. Cornell
4. Pennsylvania
5. Yale
6. Dartmouth
7. Columbia
8. Brown

Metro Atlantic
1. Fairfield
2. St. Peter's
3. Iona
4. Canisius
5. LOYOLA(MD)
6. Niagara
7. Manhattan
8. Rider
9. Siena
10. Marist

Mid-American
Eastern Division
1.Akron
2. Ohio
3. Kent State
4. Miami(OH)
5. Buffalo
6. Bowling Green
Western Division
1. Ball State
2. WESTERN MICHIGAN
3. Toledo
4. Central Michigan
5. Northern Illinois
6. Eastern Michgan

Coming soon...

2011-10-27T17:00:00.000-05:00

...the preseason look at the end result will be up next week. I have the field already chosen, just need to make a seed list and then bracket them. I'll also have a superpost predicting the 32 regular season races the next day.

Still nothing to see

2011-09-29T15:44:00.002-05:00

Wishful thinking on my part that the NCAA would name the East Region host site for the 2013 Men's tournament. If it isn't obvious by now, the NCAA has decided to string this out for no good reason at all so it can make a triumpant announcement that the East Region in 2013 will be played at Madison Square Garden, but it can't for one of 2 reasons:

1) The multi-million dollar renovation is not expected to end until the Summer of 2013. or;
2) The Circus is objecting.

Of course it could be true that the Garden is not even in play here and the NCAA is looking over to Barclays Center in Brooklyn, but who knows. The simple fact the NCAA is not even throwing out hints as to where it wants to go is troubling enough, but with the 2013 tournament now 18 months distant, the clock is ticking louder. The need to hold up this information like it's a Soviet state secret is looking more and more ridiculous. The NCAA must come clean within the coming days and just announce the site already. A nation waits with great anticipation.

As the Conferences turn

2011-08-12T21:00:00.000-05:00

The tetonics of the college sports planet have awaken during this August of Discontent, and it's as active as it was last June. This time, it involves the fates of three conferences not touched by last year's upheave. But it also includes one of the central characters of last year trying to survive.

A 14-school SEC...maybe
The most vexing question to the direction of these moves is the potential of the SEC to go from the 12-team structure it pioneered in University Division Football in 1992 to 14, or possibly 16, teams in the next few years. The most likely candidate to join is Texas A&M, whom, as you'll read about shortly, are thinking about bolting the Big 12-2. If the Aggies join, a 14th team will need to be in order. Reports out of Florida have ACC member Florida State as the 14th team(much to the potential disgust of UF AD, Jeremy Foley, who's made loud noises about having his Gators be the only Sunshine State school in the league). But the SEC might not stop there. Schools like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, West Virginia, Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and NC State have been linked to possible expansion. If it's limited to the first 3 schools, the Big 12-2 is almost toast, if the choices come from the last 5, Jon Swofford may have to merge the rump of the ACC with the football playing "Big East" schools. So it's likely the SEC will split the difference, which may bring in the Big Ten to pick off schools like Kansas, Missouri(if the SEC doesn't move first), Syracuse, Rutgers, Maryland, and possibly Virginia. Now why is such a move possible?

Big Brother-Little Brother Syndrome
Despite being enriched by television deals with ESPN and the Fox Sports Media Group, Texas A&M officials have been very frank about their unhappiness with their situation in the Big 12-2. It's only increased with Texas' new Longhorn Network, which will launch in 2 weeks. One beef with the new ESPN-owned service is that the Horns are seeking to have at least one Big 12-2 game on in order to increase it's worthiness to Cable and Satellite systems. The other beef was the fact that LHN sought to air High School games, but the NCAA shot that idea down. Nonetheless, the Aggies are trying to get out, even Govenor Rick Perry admits to the notion of escaping(despite previous attempts by him to keep UT and TAMU tied to each other during last year's tetonics).

Action, Reaction
It seems inevitable that TAMU and the SEC are going to elope and join forces. Then what? Will the remainder of the SEC go over Jeremy Foley's head and invite Florida State? Will they go to 16 and go after Oklahoma? Oklahoma State? In the east, how bout Clemson? UNC? NC State? Virginia Tech? Can Dan Branch, chair of the influential Texas House Higher Education Committee try to trim funding for TAMU?

The answers are coming soon, and if you ask me, I think the SEC goes to 14. With Florida State joining in as well.

Now we know the bitter truth

2011-06-27T20:44:00.002-05:00

The NCAA made an announcement today on future sites for the Division I Men's Basketball tournament. Unfortunately, it wasn't the one I harped upon last year around this time.

The announcement that Dayton will host the next two years of the First Four was well known in advance, but the NCAA's continued silence on who will host the East Regional in 21 months time continues to be the most deafening silence ever uttered since Manfred Mann released The Roaring Silence in 1976.

It's now very obvious the NCAA is witholding the identinty of the site so that Madison Square Garden can complete it's renovation by March, 2013. But there is one problem, the renovation will not be totally complete until October, 2013. If I'm positive, the NCAA wants the arena to be fully renovated(not just the seating bowl) before hand. So what excuse could the NCAA possibly have? A secret deal between it, St. John's, and the Big East(the potential hosts of any garden party)? A lukewarm reception from other prospective hosts?

Obviously, the NCAA needs to name a host site and school by September. Otherwise the prospective hosts will have very little time to prepare. IMO, they should have named the host LAST September.

OT: Something I've been working on

2011-04-01T09:00:00.000-05:00

Over the last several months, I've been quietly setting up a new forum dedicated to the history of the NAIA. I'm here to tell you that it's now open to all. Please go to this address: http://naiahistoryforum.freeforums.org/index.php. Enjoy it, you'll like it. Note: I'm in the process of moving the centerpiece of the forums, a detailed history of the NAIA's various playoffs to determine the qualifiers for the Men's and Women's basketball national championships to it's very own dedicated forum, so it will take some time.

The knee jerk to the field of 68(or The Screwing of Seth Greenberg, take four)

2011-03-13T17:54:00.002-05:00

Well the field is out, and all I can say at this point is this: What was Gene Smith and the NCAA Division I Baskeball Committee smoking(if they indeed do smoke)?

The top of the field

Ohio State and Kansas were the easiest one seeds to find, both having swept their respective conferences' regular season and tournament championships. Placing them in was also tre facile. The Buckeyes were slotted in Newark, the Jayhawks in San Antonio. There were some doubts about the identity of the other two ones, in the end, Pittsburgh(Southeast) and Duke(West) were granted top spots, leaving Notre Dame, North Carolina, and San Diego State somewhat dissapointed. All three leftovers, plus Florida make up the second line.

The last spots
At the start of the day, St. Mary's, Georgia, and Clemson were the only three teams left that I had some doubts about including. The Bulldogs(10 in the East) and Tigers(First four in the East) did make the field, but the Gaels did not. You'd think that the Gaels would be the lone miss, right? WRONG. The most shocking exlcusion wasn't St. Mary's at all, it was Virginia Tech, who inspite of a regular season shocker over Duke, got excluded from the 68 due to a late season slump that included getting swept by Boston College and losing to fellow bubbler Clemson. Colorado also missed out because of a poor OOC SOS, Alabama got turned down with a poor OOC performance, and Missouri State's first Missouri Valley regular season crown could not prop up the fact they were beaten by Indiana State in the final. Of those who did get in, Virginia Commonwealth was the biggest surprise, a fourth place Colonial finish was counterbalanced by road wins in the NIT Season Tip-Off and at Wichita State. Southern California finished fourth in the Pacific-10, but had marquee wins galore. And UAB conveyed an outright Conference USA title into a bid.

Surprise seeds
Butler was seeded by most as a 10 or 11, but the NCAA gave them an 8. Utah State's 12 meant that the Aggies would have missed the field if they lost WAC final. Michigan was a bubble team by most accounts, but an 8 was given. At the top, Texas had dreams of being a 2 or 3, but wound up a 4. I could go on and on about the seeding, but I won't, not with issues of...

Pod placement
Pittsburgh was sent to Washington, D.C. instead of Cleveland(presumably to allow the UNC Asheville-UALR winner to have a quick turnaround.

My personal performance
If my performance is indicative of what the rest of the bracketologists did, we(collectively) did a horrendous job this year in selecting and seeding. All I know at this point is that I did better at selecting at-larges than Bracketology 101 did(that statement says a lot:

Missed teams: 3(UAB, Southern California, Virginia Commonwealth; chose instead Colorado, St. Mary's, Virginia Tech)
Teams seeded within one seed line: 52
Teams at exact seed: 25

*The Buckeyes only need to be seeded 1st in the West sometime in the future to complete the Grand Slam of Seeding, while the Big Ten +2, with it's first East #1 completes the conference version of the slam.

Bracket Watch '11 - The FINAL projection

2011-03-13T14:30:00.001-05:00

Well, it's here. The last projection of the season since the bracketing process starts at 3:30 EDT. This is the bracket that I'm standing on for all bracket aggregators like Bracket Matrix. This is based on my initial Sunday bracket, but there are a few changes as a result of the early games; Duke and North Carolina swap seeds as a result of the ACC final; Florida swaps seeds with Connecticut, and Kentucky with BYU as a result of the SEC; also, due to the changes above, Penn State and Villanova, and Arizona and West Virginia swap seeds to avoid conflicts.

Final four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The first four
Tuesday: UNC ASHEVILLE vs. UALR; Michigan State vs. Clemson
Wednesday: UC SANTA BARBARA vs. ALABAMA STATE; St. Mary's vs. Georgia

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State vs. 16-UC SANTA BARBARA/ALABAMA STATE
8-George Mason vs. 9-GONZAGA
@ Washington, D.C.
4-Syracuse vs. 13-PRINCETON
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-BELMONT
@ Tucson
2-SAN DIEGO STATE vs. 15-NORTHERN COLORADO
7-Cincinnati vs. 10-Florida State
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-LONG ISLAND
6-Temple vs. 11-MEMPHIS

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-UT SAN ANTONIO
8-UTAH STATE vs. 9-Missouri
@ Denver
4-Brigham Young vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Michigan State/Clemson
@ Charlotte
2-North Carolina vs. 15-BOSTON UNIVERSITY
7-Texas A&M vs. 10-RICHMOND
@ Denver
3-KENTUCKY vs. 14-MOREHEAD STATE
6-Arizona vs. 11-Michigan

Southwest region
@ Tulsa
1-KANSAS vs. 16-HAMPTON
8-Ucla vs. 9-Marquette
@ Chicago
4-Purdue vs. 13-St. Mary's/Georgia
5-St. John's vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Cleveland
2-Pittsburgh vs. 15-BUCKNELL
7-Tennessee vs. 10-BUTLER
@ Tampa
3-Louisville vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Xavier vs. 11-Illinois

Southeast region

@ Charlotte
1-DUKE vs. 16-UNC ASHEVILLE/UALR
8-WASHINGTON vs. 9-Unlv
@ Tucson
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Colorado
@ Washington, D.C.
2-CONNECTICUT vs. 15-AKRON
7-OLD DOMINION vs. 10-Penn State
@ Tampa
3-Florida vs. 14-SAINT PETER'S
6-Kansas State vs. 11-Villanova

The last four in the field: Michigan State, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson
Note: Michigan State is safe, the others are not.
The first four left out: Alabama, Harvard, Boston College, Southern California
The next four left out: Uab, Utep, Missouri State, Virginia Commonwealth

To all bracketologists out there, good luck and good seeding.

Bracket Watch '11 - The early Sunday bracket

2011-03-13T11:00:00.000-05:00

I had written earlier this morning that I would not have an early bracket. Oops! So here you go, the first preliminary bracket.

Final four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The first four:
Tuesday: UNC ASHEVILLE vs. UALR; Michigan State vs. Clemson
Wednesday: UC SANTA BARBARA vs. ALABAMA STATE; St. Mary's vs. Georgia

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-UC SANTA BARBARA/ALABAMA STATE
8-George Mason vs. 9-GONZAGA
@ Washington, D.C.
4-Syracuse vs. 13-PRINCETON
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-BELMONT
@ Tucson
2-SAN DIEGO STATE vs. 15-NORTHERN COLORADO
7-Cincinnati vs. 10-Florida State
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-LONG ISLAND
6-Temple vs. 11-MEMPHIS

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-UT SAN ANTONIO
8-UTAH STATE vs. 9-Missouri
@ Denver
4-Kentucky vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Arizona vs. 12-Michigan State/Clemson
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-BOSTON UNIVERSITY
7-Texas A&M vs. 10-Richmond(Atlantic 10)
@ Denver
3-Brigham Young vs. 14-MOREHEAD STATE
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Michigan

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-KANSAS vs. 16-HAMPTON
8-Ucla vs. 9-Marquette
@ Chicago
4-Purdue vs. 13-St. Mary's/Georgia
5-St. John's vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Cleveland
2-Pittsburgh vs. 15-BUCKNELL
7-Tennessee vs. 10-BUTLER
@ Tampa
3-Louisville vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Xavier vs. 11-Illinois

Southeast region

@ Charlotte
1-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-UNC ASHEVILLE/UALR
8-WASHINGTON vs. 9-Unlv
@ Tucson
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Colorado
@ Tampa
2-Florida(Southeast) vs. 15-AKRON
7-OLD DOMINION vs. 10-Villanova
@ Washington, D.C.
3-CONNECTICUT vs. 14-SAINT PETER'S
6-Kansas State vs. 11-Penn State

The last four in the field: Michigan State, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson
Note: Michigan State is safe, the others are not.
The first four left out: Alabama, Harvard, Boston College, Southern California
The next four left out: Uab, Utep, Missouri State, Virginia Commonwealth

Note: If Dayton does win the Atlantic 10 final, Clemson is out, and Colorado bumps to the first four.

Well, I'll post again later on today for either an update, or putting up the final projection.

Quick update

2011-03-13T08:45:00.001-05:00

I do have a seed list made up, but it will not be put in to bracket form until after the early games. Expect the final projection to be up around 3 to 4(depending on when I finish actually bracketing).

Top four seed lines as of 11:30 PM

2011-03-12T23:30:00.000-06:00

After a crazy Saturday(and that's both basketball and hockey, thank you very much), here's who I have at the top of the bracket.

1-Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Notre Dame
2-Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Florida, San Diego State
3-Texas, Connecticut, Brigham Young, Purdue
4-Louisville, Kentucky, St. John's, Syracuse

The last four byes: Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Colorado
The last four in the field: Michigan State, St. Mary's, Georgia(surprise), Clemson
The first four left out: Alabama, UTEP, Boston College, Southern California
The next three left out: Harvard, Missouri State, UAB

Note: I will post an early bracket by Noon CDT(did you forget to spring ahead?), with a final one to be posted after the early games end, so it's quite likely that the projection I post in the morning could end up the final one.

Top four seed lines as of 10:50 PM

2011-03-11T22:30:00.001-06:00

UPDATE: I had to do it over after Virginia Tech pulled out a 52-51 win over Florida State.

I don't think I'll have time tomorrow to do a seed update(much less a bracket update), so instead I'm doing a top seeds update and a last four update.

1-Ohio State, Kansas, Notre Dame, Duke
2-Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Brigham Young, North Carolina
3-Purdue, Texas, Louisville, Connecticut
4-San Diego State, Florida, Kentucky, St. John's

Last four to gain 2nd round bye: Michigan State, Villanova, St. Mary's, Colorado
Last four in as of 10:50: Clemson, Alabama, Virginia Tech, Penn State
The under consideraion board(in order): Southern California, Richmond, Memphis, Georgia, Missouri State, UAB
Bid poachers: Dayton, St. Joseph's, Oregon, Boise State/New Mexico State winner

Bracket Watch '11 - Two days to Selection Sunday

2011-03-11T09:00:00.000-06:00

I had something really witty in mind before revealing the newest projected bracket, but I won't. Not after Japan suffered it's largest earthquake in it's history, which also triggered tsunami warnings for Hawai'i and the West Coast. My thoughts and prayers are on those that are suffering through this time of what will be a great loss. Godspeed Japan, godspeed.

Now on to the projections:

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four
Tuesday: McNeese State(Southland) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE; Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
Wednesday: Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. UALR; Richmond vs. Clemson

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State vs. 16-Texas Southern/UALR
8-Marquette vs. 9-Washington
@ Tucson
4-Connecticut vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Boston College
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-OLD DOMINION vs. 10-Illinois
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 11-St. Mary's

West region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Missouri
@ Denver
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-Arizona(Pacific-10) vs. 12-Alabama/Virginia Tech
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-MOREHEAD STATE
7-Tennessee vs. 10-Michigan
@ Tucson
3-San Diego State vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Villanova

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-McNeese State/UNC ASHEVILLE
8-Unlv vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Utep(Conference USA)
5-Temple vs. 12-Michigan State
@ Chicago
2-Purdue vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-Cincinnati vs. 10-BUTLER
@ Tampa
3-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 14-LONG ISLAND
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Colorado

Southeast region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame(Big East) vs. 16-NORTHERN COLORADO
8-Ucla vs. 9-George Mason
@ Washington, D.C.
4-St. John's vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Kentucky vs. 12-Richmond/Clemson
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-Kansas State vs. 10-GONZAGA
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-SAINT PETER'S
6-Georgetown vs. 11-BELMONT

New to the field: Utep
Leaving the field: Uab

Last four to get byes: Villanova, Colorado, Boston College, Michigan State
Last four in the field: Richmond, Clemson, Alabama, Virginia Tech
First four left out: Southern California, Georgia, Memphis, Uab
Next four left out: Missouri State, Penn State, New Mexico, Washington State

Seed range for teams not in the field, but could play their way in through conference championships:
Lehigh(First four)
Stony Brook(First four)
Utsa(First four)

Bracket Watch '11 - Three Days to Selection Sunday

2011-03-10T06:30:00.000-06:00

The projected field of 68 contains the same teams that were in the last projection, but plenty of teams moved up to solidify their standing, whilst others stumbled. On the outside, both Nebraska(by one to Oklahoma State) and Baylor(who got vaporized by Oklahoma) lost, ending their hopes of dancing, while Marquette can now consider themselves a locked in team. Today will feature even more bubble teams looking to either make a statement, or make fools of themselves.

On the automatics front, Long Island and Robert Morris played a thriller for the Northeast crown, the Blackbirds eventually winning in OT after the Colonials scored the tying three ball in the last seconds of regulation. In the Big Sky, Northern Colorado scored it's first ever bid to the dance at Montana's expense, but it was back and forth as to whom would win. There are no automatic bids at stake tonight.

Here's how the results resulted in the newest projections.

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four
Tuesday: Alabama vs. Clemson; UNC ASHEVILLE vs. Texas Southern(Southwestern)
Wednesday: Colorado vs. Virginia Tech; McNeese State(Southland) vs. UALR

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-McNeese State/UALR
8-Georgetown vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tucson
4-Connecticut vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Alabama/Clemson
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Ucla vs. 10-Illinois
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-MOREHEAD STATE
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-St. Mary's

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-UNC ASHEVILLE/Texas Southern
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Michigan
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-BELMONT
5-Kansas State vs. 12-Uab(Conference USA)
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-OLD DOMINION vs. 10-Villanova
@ Tucson
3-San Diego State vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Temple vs. 11-Washington

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-NORTHERN COLORADO
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Marquette
@ Denver
4-Louisville vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Arizona(Pacific-10) vs. 12-Michigan State
@ Chicago
2-Purdue vs. 15-Kent State(Mid-American)
7-Unlv vs. 10-BUTLER
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-LONG ISLAND
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Richmond

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-Missouri vs. 9-George Mason
@ Washington, D.C.
4-St. John's vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Kentucky vs. 12-Colorado/Virginia Tech
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-Texas A&M vs. 10-GONZAGA
@ Tampa
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-SAINT PETER'S
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-Boston College

New to the field: None
Leaving the field: None

Last four in the field(by seed list): Alabama, Clemson, Colorado, Virginia Tech
First four left out: Southern California, Georgia, Missouri State, Memphis
Next four left out: Washington State, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Penn State
The under consideration board: Duquesne, Nebraska, Utep, Wichita State(yeah, I had to scrape the bottom of the barrel for the under consideration list.)

Bracket Watch '11 - Four Days to Selection Sunday

2011-03-09T08:00:00.000-06:00

In terms of my projections(and of others), a bid opened up last night as a result of Butler's domination of Milwaukee in the Horizon League final. But realistically, no one expected the Panthers to do the deed three times against the unflustered Bulldogs, whose reaction to the win was exactly the same as a regular season game(Heck, I'm not sure that a single net was cut into), very ho-hum, another game another win. Also last night, Princeton dominated Penn in the second half to force a one-game playoff with Harvard on Yale's home court, Oakland cruised in the second half to down Oral Roberts for the summit of the Summit, and UALR's cinderella run through the Sun Belt ended with a win against North Texas. The play of the game was Solomon Bozman's game winning three-ball in the closing seconds, capping a 6-1 run in the last 17 seconds.

Amongst the big boys, Villanova is in huge trouble, pulling defeat from the jaws of victory in a 70-69 loss to South Florida. They're still in for now, but it would not be out of the realm of possibility for the Wildcats to miss the big dance.

With yesterday out of the way, here's how the projected field stacks up:

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four
Tuesday: Alabama vs. Virginia Tech; McNeese State(Southland) vs. UALR
Wednesday: Clemson vs. Colorado; Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/UNC ASHEVILLE
8-George Mason vs. 9-Villanova
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Michigan State
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-MOREHEAD STATE
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-BUTLER
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Arizona vs. 11-Boston College*

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-McNeese State/UALR
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Illinois
@ Tucson
4-Kentucky vs. 13-BELMONT
5-Kansas State vs. 12-Richmond*
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-SAINT PETER'S
7-Georgetown vs. 10-Washington
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-GONZAGA

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Northern Colorado(Big Sky)
8-Unlv vs. 9-Tennessee
@ Denver
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Alabama/Virginia Tech
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-Temple vs. 10-Michigan*
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Uab(Conference USA)*

Southeast region
@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-OLD DOMINION vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Connecticut vs. 12-Clemson*/Colorado*
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Ucla vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Missouri vs. 11-St. Mary's*

New to the field: Virginia Tech, UALR
Leaving the field: Milwaukee, North Texas

Last four in the field(by seed list): Alabama, Clemson, Colorado, Virginia Tech
First four left out: Southern California, Georgia, Missouri State, Memphis
Next four left out: Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Washington State
The under-consideration board: Penn State, UTEP, Wichita State

Seeding range for tonight's finalists not in the field:
Montana(16)
Robert Morris(16 or First Four)

Bracket Watch '11 - Five Days to Selection Sunday

2011-03-08T07:30:00.001-06:00

Last night saw two games that had direct relevance to the bubble and the results were positive. The first one, the Colonial final, saw Old Dominion get out to as much as an 18-point lead before VCU stormed back to within 2. Ultimately, the Monarchs' interior dominance did the Rams in and resulted in a 70-65 win. For the bubble, it's a significant sigh of relief as both the Monarchs and George Mason were in regardless of what happened last night. The second game, the West Coast final in Las Vegas, saw Gonzaga and St. Mary's see-saw the lead well into the second half. But foul trouble for it's two most prominent interior players spelt an inevitable defeat for the Gaels, who now, for the second time in three years, leave themselves exposed to the hungry pack of bid poachers ready to swipe in at a moment's notice.

Here's the latest projection update, with two changes. Connecticut and Missouri swap seeds to better fit their profiles, while WOFFORD and Oakland swap regions to avoid a Wisconsin-WOFFORD rematch. These projections are done as always as if the season has ended.

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four
Tuesday: Colorado vs. Alabama; Northern Colorado(Big Sky) vs. McNeese State(Southland)
Wednesday: Michigan State vs. Clemson; Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/UNC ASHEVILLE
8-Villanova vs. 9-George Mason
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-BELMONT
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-MOREHEAD STATE
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-Butler*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Arizona vs. 11-Boston College*

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-Northern Colorado/McNeese State
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Illinois
@ Tucson
4-Kentucky vs. 13-Milwaukee(Horizon)
5-Kansas State vs. 12-Richmond
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-SAINT PETER'S
7-Georgetown vs. 10-Washington
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-GONZAGA

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-Unlv vs. 9-Tennessee
@ Denver
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Colorado*/Alabama*
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-Temple vs. 10-Michigan*
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Uab(Conference USA)*

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-North Texas(Sun Belt)
8-OLD DOMINION vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Connecticut vs. 12-Michigan State*/Clemson*
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Ucla vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Missouri vs. 11-St. Mary's*

New to the field: SAINT PETER'S, WOFFORD, North Texas
Leaving the field: Iona, College of Charleston, Middle Tennessee

Last four in the field(by seed list): Michigan State, Alabama, Clemson, Colorado First four left out: Virginia Tech, Southern California, Georgia, Missouri State
Next four left out: Memphis, Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma State, Nebraska The under-consideration board: Penn State, UTEP, Wichita State

Seeding range for tonight's finalists not in the field:
Oral Roberts: 13-14
Arkansas-Little Rock: First Four

Bracket Watch '11 - Six Days to Selection Sunday

2011-03-07T09:00:00.000-06:00

And DOWN the stretch they come! Michigan State starting to fade...Here comes VCU on the rail! Colorado on the outside! Missouri State's out of it! Virginia Tech and Alabama neck and neck! Here's the finish...AND IT'S TOO CLOSE TO CALL!! THEY WILL HAVE TO GO TO THE PHOTO TO DETERMINE WHO'S IN AND WHO'S OUT! MY WHAT A FINISH.

That's the kind of call Dave Johnson would have if he were to handicap the bubble picture. And this year, that call would be very close to the truth. And around the NIT bubble, it's even worse, as conference champions have taken up five(and potentially six) spots so far.

There's also a change at the top of the bracket, as Duke's 81-67 loss to North Carolina dropped the Blue Devils to a 2 seed. Who's replacing them, Notre Dame; after a 70-67 win over UConn. The other three top seeds are safe(for now at least).

Starting with this bracket, teams that have already qualified for the dance of all dances will be in all CAPS.

Projection done as if the season has ended:

Final Four pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four:
Tuesday: Colorado vs. Alabama; Northern Colorado(Big Sky) vs. McNeese State(Southland
Wednesday: Michigan State vs. Clemson; Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/UNC ASHEVILLE
8-Villanova vs. 9-George Mason
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard or Princeton(Ivy)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-BELMONT
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-MOREHEAD STATE
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-Butler*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Arizona vs. 11-Boston College*

West region

@ Chicago
1-Notre Dame vs. 16-Northern Colorado/McNeese State
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Illinois
@ Tucson
4-Kentucky vs. 13-Milwaukee(Horizon)
5-Kansas State vs. 12-Richmond
@ Charlotte
2-Duke vs. 15-Iona(Metro Atlantic)
7-Georgetown vs. 10-Washington
@ Tulsa
3-Texas vs. 14-INDIANA STATE
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-Gonzaga*

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-Unlv vs. 9-Tennessee
@ Denver
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-College of Charleston(Southern)
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Colorado*/Alabama*
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Boston University(America East)
7-Temple vs. 10-Michigan*
@ Charlotte
3-North Carolina(Atlantic Coast) vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Uab(Conference USA)*

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)
8-Old Dominion(Colonial) vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Missouri vs. 12-Michigan State/Clemson
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Ucla vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Connecticut vs. 11-St. Mary's(West Coast)

New to the field: Clemson, UNC ASHEVILLE, Colorado, Iona, INDIANA STATE, MOREHEAD STATE, Alabama, Middle Tennessee
Leaving the field: Virginia Tech, Coastal Carolina, Fairfield, Missouri State, Wichita State, Murray State, Georgia, Florida Atlantic

Last four in the field(by seed list): Michigan State, Alabama, Clemson, Colorado
First four left out: Virginia Tech, Southern California, Georgia, Missouri State
Next four left out: Memphis, Virginia Commonwealth, Oklahoma State, Nebraska
The under-consideration board: Penn State, UTEP, Wichita State

Seeding range for tonight's finalists not in the field:
St. Peter's(15-16)
Virginia Commonwealth(11-13)
Wofford(13-14)

Bracket Watch '11 - Friday Update

2011-03-04T06:54:00.003-06:00

As is usual for a Friday, a quick look at the seeds, but no bracket update. And also as usual, the projections are done as if the season has already ended.

* Denotes a bubble team
Underline denotes First Four team

1-Ohio State(East), Kansas(Southwest), Pittsburgh(Southeast), Duke(West)
2-Notre Dame, Purdue, San Diego State, Brigham Young
3-Syracuse, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas
4-Florida, Louisville, St. John's, Georgetown
5-Connecticut, Arizona, Kentucky, Kansas State
6-Xavier, George Mason, Cincinnati, UNLV
7-Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia
8-Utah State, Missouri, Temple, Old Dominion
9-Tennessee, Marquette, UCLA, Washington
10-Florida State, Butler*, UAB*, Georgia*
11-Michigan State*, Illinois*, Gonzaga*, St. Mary's*
12-Richmond*, Michigan*, Boston College*, Missouri State*, Virginia Tech*, Wichita State*
13-Belmont, Oakland, Coastal Carolina, Princeton
14-Kent State, College of Charleston, Long Island, Milwaukee
15-Long Beach State, Vermont, Fairfield, Bucknell
16-Texas Southern, Florida Atlantic, Murray State, Northern Colorado, Bethune Cookman, McNeese State

New to the field: Boston College, Kent State, Wichita State
Leaving the field: Baylor, Miami(OH), Alabama

Last four in the field: Michigan, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wichita State
First four left out: Clemson, Nebraska, Virginia Commonwealth, Alabama
Next four left out: Washington State, Memphis, Baylor, Penn State
The Under Consideration board: Dayton, Northwestern, Colorado, Southern Mississippi, Colorado State, Southern California

Quick update for next week:
Look for a fully updated bracket on Monday, followed by Tuesday and Wednesday updates, full brackets on Thursday and Friday, a seed update on Saturday(if possible), and at least one projected bracket on Sunday which might be expanded to two projections(one morning, one near the Selection Show) if conditions warrant.

Bracket Watch '11 - The wackiness is not over

2011-02-28T09:00:00.000-06:00

Things are still evidently goofy with less than two weeks to go before Gene Smith and the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee reveals the 68 team field. How goofy? Well in the past week:

-Duke fell to a desperate Virginia Tech;
-Texas ended up losing a 15-point lead to Colorado, thus getting swept by the departing schools of the Big 12;
-St. John's continued it's revival by downing a suddenly down Villanova;
-Florida and Alabama set up their exciting showdown on Tuesday by losing;
-Brigham Young went in to San Diego and made itself San Diego State's daddy;
-Memphis had their at-large candidacy severly damaged vs. UTEP;
-and lastly, Harvard couldn't get past Yale, making this Saturday's game with Princeton a deathmatch(death meaning of course, a Tiger title).

There were a lot more results that affected the field this day, but those were the ones that had the biggest impact. How much? Well read for yourself. Also note that starting with this projection, bubble teams will be listed with an asterisk*.

Projections done as if the season ended yesterday.

Final Four pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

The First Four:
Tuesday Game A: Bethune Cookman(Mid Eastern) vs. Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
Tuesday Game B: Virginia Tech vs. Michign
Wednesday Game A: Baylor vs. Alabama
Wednesday Game B: Texas Southern(Southwestern) vs. McNeese State(Southland)

East regional

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Texas Southern/McNeese State
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Washington*
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Princeton(Ivy League)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)*
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
7-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 10-Illinois*
@ Chicago
3-Notre Dame vs. 14-Vermont(America East)
6-Missouri vs. 11-Butler*

West region

@ Denver
1-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman/Florida Atlantic
8-Marquette vs. 9-Kansas State*
@ Tucson
4-Connecticut vs. 13-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
5-Kentucky vs. 12-Missouri State(Missouri Valley)*
@ Charlotte
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
7-George Mason(Colonial) vs. 10-Georgia*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-St. John's vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-St. Mary's(West Coast)*

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas vs. 16-Northern Colorado(Big Sky)
8-UNLV vs. 9-Cincinnati
@ Charlotte
4-North Carolina vs. 13-Baylor*/Alabama*
5-Arizona(Pacific-10) vs. 12-Michigan State*
@ Chicago
2-Purdue vs. 15-Miami(Ohio)(Mid-American)
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Old Dominion*
@ Washington, D.C.
3-Syracuse vs. 14-Milwaukee(Horizon)
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-Richmond*

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Long Island(Northeast)
8-UCLA vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Virginia Tech*/Michigan*
@ Tulsa
2-Texas(Big 12) vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-Temple vs. 10-Gonzaga*
@ Denver
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Villanova vs. 11-UAB(Conference USA)*

New to the field: Virginia Tech, Northern Colorado, Michigan, Baylor, UAB, Princeton, Miami(Ohio), McNeese State
Leaving the field: Montana, Memphis, Southern Mississippi, Harvard, Kent State, Wichita State, Colorado State, Texas State

Last four in the field: Virginia Tech, Baylor, Michigan, Alabama
First four left out: Boston College, Memphis, Clemson, Colorado
Next four left out: Wichita State, Virginia Commonwealth, Colorado State, Penn State
The underconsideration board: Maryland, Dayton, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Southern Mississippi, Valparaiso, Harvard, New Mexico, Southern Califorina, South Carolina

Bracket Watch '11 - Friday Update

2011-02-25T10:30:00.000-06:00

I have nothing to say today except for one thing. If anyone thinks that someone will correctly predict all 37 at-large teams in 2 weeks time, they're full of hooey, and that's putting it mildly.

Projections are done as if the season ended last night.

1-Ohio State(East), Pittsburgh(Southeast), Duke(Southwest), San Diego State(West)
2-Texas, Brigham Young, Kansas, Notre Dame
3-Purdue, Wisconsin, Florida, Louisville
4-North Carolina, Villanova, Georgetown, Arizona
5-Connecticut, Syracuse, Missouri, St. John's
6-Vanderbilt, Xavier, Texas A&M, West Virginia
7-Tennessee, Kentucky, Cincinnati, Temple
8-George Mason, UNLV, Marquette, UNLV
9-Michigan State, Old Dominion, Utah State, Florida State
10-Kansas State, Washington, Illinois, Memphis
11-Alabama, Gonzaga, Missouri State, Georgia
12-St. Mary's, Belmont, Oakland, Butler
13-Richmond, Southern Mississippi, Wichita State, Colorado State, Harvard, Milwaukee
14-Kent State, Fairfield, Coastal Carolina, Montana
15-Vermont, Bucknell, Long Beach State, College of Charleston
16-Florida Atlantic, Texas Southern, Murray State, Long Island, Bethune Cookman, Texas State

New to the field: Memphis, Southern Mississippi, Milwaukee, Kent State, Wichita State, Colorado State, Murray State, Texas State
Leaving the field: Boston College, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, UTEP, Cleveland State, Miami(OH), Morehead State, McNeese State

Last four in the field: Richmond, Southern Mississippi, Wichita State, Colorado State
First four left out: Virginia Tech, Clemson, UAB, Boston College
Next four left out: Minnesota, Baylor, Penn State, Maryland
The under-consideration board: Dayton, Michigan, Nebraska, UTEP, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Valparaiso, New Mexico, Washington State, South Carolina

Predicting the conference tournament champions

2011-02-22T08:08:00.002-06:00

As is usual, I'm taking the liberty(not the university) of putting on my predicting cap and announcing whom I think will posess the 31 automatic tickets to the big dance floor. This year though, I'm making the picks early so that you can enter your picks too. No prizes, however, will be awarded. So you think you can outdo my choices? Bring it on, dudes and dudettes.

America East Vermont
Atlantic Coast Duke
Atlantic Sun Belmont
Atlantic 10 Temple
Big East St. John's
Big Sky Northern Colorado
Big South Coastal Carolina
Big Ten Ohio State
Big 12 Texas A&M
Big West Pacific
Colonial James Madison(bid poach)
Conference USA UTEP
Horizon Valparaiso
Ivy League Harvard
Metro Atlantic Fairfield
Mid-American Ohio
Mid-Eastern Morgan State
Missouri Valley Missouri State
Mountain West San Diego State
Northeast Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley Austin Peay
Pacific-10 California(bid poach)
Patriot Bucknell
Southeastern Alabama
Southern Furman
Southland Stephen F. Austin
Southwestern Mississippi Valley State
Summit South Dakota State
Sun Belt Florida Atlantic
West Coast St. Mary's
Western Athletic Utah State

And for those projecting the CollegeInsider.com tourney,
Great West NJIT(can you believe they went winless two years ago?)

Bracket Watch '11 - Bracket Stew....Ewwwww!

2011-02-21T08:36:00.002-06:00

Which event this past week was the most jarring to you? Was it the sight of a 20-year old winning the most prestigous NASCAR race? Or the fact that everyone in the top 5(but not Duke) getting upset? For me, being both a college hoops fan and a NASCAR fan as well, it's both.

First off, what Trevor Bayne did yesterday will more than likely stand as the greatest upset in Daytona 500 history, eclipsing what Derrike Cope did in 1990 in terms of pure shock. Secondly, and this point is overlooked, he won the race with a part-time team. That team, the Wood Brothers racing team, used to be one of the best teams in NASCAR, if not the best. After a decade of decline due to sponsorship issues and dwindling results, they decided to take a risk on a driver with lots of potential, but few results to back it up. Yesterday, thanks to an abundance of power in his Ford, coupled with a string of crashes that took out most of the "serious" contenders(including a Big One on lap 29), Bayne went from being an unknown driver into one of the greatest cinderella stories in the course of 208 laps.

But does that moment, seminal as it is, compare to the carnage of the week where it seems everyone was being upset? Yes. Teams from coast to coast were upset at an alarming rate. The result was significant upheaval at the top of the bracket, yet due to Bracketbuster weekend taking place, there were only six spots in the field that exchanged hands. Projections of course are based as if the season has ended already:

Final Four pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southeast(2) vs. Southwest(3)

First Four pairings:
Tuesday Game A: Butler vs. Boston College
Tuesday Game B: Gonzaga vs. Richmond
Wednesday Game A: Miami(OH)(Mid-American) vs. Texas Southern(Southwestern)
Wednesday Game B: McNeese State(Southland) vs. Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. McNeese State/Bethune Cookman
8-Cincinnati vs. 9-Kansas State
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard(Ivy)
5-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Charlotte
2-Georgetown vs. 15-Vermont(America East)
7-UCLA vs. 10-Alabama
@ Tampa
3-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Minnesota

West region

@ Tucson
1-San Diego State(Mountain West) vs. 16-Montana(Big Sky)
8-Utah State(Western Athletic) vs. 9-Old Dominion
@ Denver
4-Arizona(Pacific-10) vs. 13-UTEP(Conference USA)
5-Villanova vs. 12-Butler/Boston College
@ Tulsa
2-Kansas vs. 15-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
7-Florida State vs. 10-Georgia
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Morehead State(Ohio Valley)
6-Syracuse vs. 11-St. Mary's(West Coast)

Southeast region

@ Charlotte
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
8-George Mason(Colonial) vs. 9-Illinois
@ Washington, D.C.
4-Notre Dame vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Kentucky vs. 12-Gonzaga/Richmond
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-Temple vs. 10-Washington
@ Washington, D.C.
3-Connecticut vs. 14-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
6-Missouri vs. 11-Michigan State

Southwest region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Miami(Ohio)/Texas Southern
8-Tennessee vs. 9-UNLV
@ Denver
4-North Carolina vs. 13-Cleveland State(Horizon)
5-St. John's vs. 12-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
@ Tulsa
2-Texas(Big 12) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Missouri State(Missouri Valley)

New to the field: Richmond, UTEP, Harvard, Bethune Cookman, McNeese State, Gonzaga
Leaving the field: Baylor, Memphis, Princeton, Hampton, Wichita State, Texas State

Last four in the field: Butler, Boston College, Gonzaga, Richmond
First four left out: Memphis, Virginia Commonwealth, Baylor, UAB
Next four left out: Clemson, Michigan, Nebraska, Southern Mississippi
The under-consideration board: Maryland, Duquesne, Dayton, Northwestern, Colorado, Wichita State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Washington State, South Carolina

Bracket Watch '11 - Friday Update

2011-02-18T10:30:00.000-06:00

Before I release the seeding update, I admit that I'm being harsh on Georgia. If you look at the current Bracket Matrix, I'm the only one who doesn't believe the Bulldogs are not NCAA worthy. This is simply because they have a tough finish to their schedule(starting this weekend at Tennessee) and the fact they have lost several key home games too to the likes of Xavier and Vanderbilt. That said, the Bulldogs are in the projected field today, since it appears no one else wants in.

Projected seeds as of Today(And this week, regions for the #1 seeds); teams underlined will be in the first four:

1-Ohio State(East), Texas(Southwest), Pittsburgh(Southeast), Duke(West)
2-Kansas, Brigham Young, San Diego State, Notre Dame
3-Connecticut, Georgetown, Purdue, Wisconsin
4-Florida, Syracuse, North Carolina, Villanova
5-Arizona, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
6-Louisville, Xavier, West Virginia, Illinois
7-Missouri, Temple, St. John's, Tennessee
8-Florida State, UCLA, Utah State, Washington
9-Cincinnati, George Mason, Alabama, UNLV
10-St. Mary's, Baylor, Marquette, Virginia Tech
11-Minnesota, Missouri State, Memphis, Kansas State
12-Boston College, Michigan State, Belmont, Georgia, Old Dominion
13-Wichita State, Butler, Oakland, Princeton, Cleveland State
14-Miami(Ohio), Coastal Carolina, Vermont, College of Charleston
15-Montana, Fairfield, Morehead State, Bucknell
16-Long Beach State, Hampton, Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Texas State, Texas Southern

New to the field: Kansas State, Butler, Cleveland State, Miami(Ohio), Georgia
Leaving the field: Richmond, UTEP, UAB, Valparaiso, Kent State

Last four in the field: Georgia, Old Dominion, Wichita State, Butler
First four left out: Richmond, UAB, Gonzaga, Colorado State
Next four left out: Penn State, Washington State, Harvard, Duquesne
The underconsideration board: Clemson, North Carolina State, Maryland, Dayton, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Southern Mississippi, Valparaiso, New Mexico, South Carolina

Guess Who?

2011-02-15T08:39:00.002-06:00

It's blind resume time once again. Can you identify this bubble team?

Current RPI: 58.
Division I Record: 16-10
SOS: 0.574
SOS Rank: 18
vs. RPI top 50: 2-8
vs. RPI 51-100: 5-1
vs. RPI 101-150: 2-0
vs. RPI 151-200: 1-1
vs. the Dregs: 5-0
Hint: this team faces a tough finishing stretch.
(All info current as of Tuesday Morning. It comes from Rivals.Yahoo.com)

Bracket Watch '11 - Who wants to be an NCAA tourney team?

2011-02-14T09:11:00.002-06:00

At this point, many teams don't want to be one. And they know who they are. OTOH, teams like George Mason and Alabama are looking more and more like NCAA teams. Given the paucity of teams distinguishing themselves, these two are closer to being locks than most people realize.

With that being said, here's the latest projection, complete with a new #1 overall seed to boot.

Final Four Pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southeast(2) vs. Southwest(3)

The First Four:
Tuesday Game A: Cincinnati vs. Wichita State
Tuesday Game B: Richmond vs. UAB
Wednesday Game A: Murray State(Ohio Valley) vs. Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
Wednesday Game B: Texas State(Southland) vs. Texas Southern(Southwestern)

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Texas State/Texas Southern
8-George Mason(Colonial) vs. 9-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Tucson
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Cincinnati/Wichita State
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-UTEP(Conference USA)
@ Charlotte
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Washington vs. 10-Alabama
@ Chicago
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Villanova vs. 11-Baylor
(Note: Baylor and Alabama swapped seeds so that the Bears would not face Duke in the 3rd round, if they defeated Washington)

West region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas vs. 16-Hampton(Mid-Eastern)
8-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 9-Minnesota
@ Tampa
4-North Carolina vs. 13-Princeton(Ivy)
5-West Virginia vs. 12-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Kent State(Mid-American)
7-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 10-Marquette
@ Chicago
3-Notre Dame vs. 14-Valparaiso(Horizon)
6-Arizona(Pacific-10) vs. 11-Michigan State

Southeast region
@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Murray State/Florida Atlantic
8-St. John's vs. 9-UNLV
@ Denver
4-Louisville vs. 13-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
5-Missouri vs. 12-Old Dominion
@ Charlotte
2-Georgetown vs. 15-Vermont(America East)
7-Temple vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Tampa
3-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Illinois vs. 11-Memphis

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Texas(Big 12) vs. 16-Long Beach State(Big West)
8-UCLA vs. 9-Florida State
@ Washington D.C.
4-Connecticut vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Kentucky vs. 12-Richmond/UAB
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-Montana(Big Sky)
7-Syracuse vs. 10-Missouri State(Missouri Valley)
@ Washington D.C.
3-Purdue vs. 14-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
6-Tennessee vs. 11-Boston College

New to the field: Richmond, Montana, Memphis, Wichita State, Alabama, Texas State
Leaving the field: Clemson, Duquesne, Northern Colorado, Kansas State, Virginia Commonwealth, Northwestern State

Last four in the field: Cincinnati, Richmond, UAB, Wichita State
First four left out: Georgia, Virginia Commonwealth, Kansas State, Duquesne
Next four left out: Harvard, Clemson, Gonzaga, Butler
The under-consideration board: Maryland, Dayton, Providence, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Cleveland State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Washington State, South Carolina

Bracket Watch '11 - Friday Update

2011-02-11T11:30:00.000-06:00

For the rest of this month, I'll only be doing seeding updates on Fridays. Here's the first such update. Projections are done as if the season ended yesterday(No attempt is made to forecast the remainder of the season).

Note: First Four teams are Underlined.

1-Ohio State, Texas, Pittsburgh, Kansas
2-Duke, Brigham Young, San Diego State, Georgetown
3-Notre Dame, Purdue, Connecticut, Florida
4-Wisconsin, Kentucky, North Carolina, Vanderbilt
5-Villanova, Arizona, Tennessee, Syracuse
6-West Virginia, Florida State, Illinois, Temple
7-Texas A&M, Louisville, Missouri, Xavier
8-St. Mary's, Minnesota, St. John's, UNLV
9-Utah State, Washington, UCLA, VCU
10-Missouri State, George Mason, Cincinnati, Baylor
11-Virginia Tech, Clemson, Marquette, UTEP
12-UAB, Boston College, Belmont, Duquesne, Michigan State
13-Kansas State, Old Dominion, Oakland, Valparaiso, Princeto
14-Vermont, Kent State, Murray State, College of Charleston
15-Bucknell, Fairfield, Long Beach State, Coastal Carolina
16-Hampton, Northern Colorado, Long Island, Florida Atlantic, Northwestern State, Texas Southern

New to the field: Virginia Tech, Michigan State, Baylor, Old Dominion, Valparaiso,, Missouri State
Leaving the field: Richmond, Memphis, Cleveland State, Wichita State, Alabama, Georgia

Last four in the field: Duquesne, Michigan State, Kansas State, Old Dominion
First four left out: Richmond, Memphis, Oklahoma State, South Carolina
Next four left out: Wichita State, Harvard, Dayton, Alabama
The under-consideration board: Maryland, Providence, Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska, Southern Mississippi, Tulsa, Southern Methodist, Colorado State, New Mexico, Washington State, Gonzaga.

State of the Bubble - Pacific-10 to Western Athletic

2011-02-10T08:15:00.002-06:00

Sorry folks for being this late with the last installment. I was busy and couldn't find the time to put this up, until now.

Pacific-10
Expected bid range: 2-4
Locks: none
Should be in: Arizona
Bubble riders: UCLA, Washington, Washington State
In another down year for the Pac-10, it seems no one wants to be a lock. The Wildcats are the closest, but have little to show from their non-conference work. The Huskies are in a bit of bother, struggling to hold on to the Wildcats' coattails.

Patriot League
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: Bucknell, American

Southeastern
Expected bid range: 4-6
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Should be in: Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bubble Riders: Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina

Southern
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: College of Charleston, Chattanooga, Furman, Wofford

Southland
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: It's so wide open down here, everyone but Central Arkansas could win the conference. And that's saying something.

Southwestern
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: Texas Southern, Jackson State

Summit
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: Oakland, IUPUI, IPFW, South Dakota State
Earlier this season, the Grizzlies could have been in contention for an at-large, but a loss to the Jaguars put an end to that. Still, if Oakland does make it, they will give a higher seed fits.

Sun Belt
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: Florida Atlantic, Denver, Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State, North Texas

West Coast
Expected bid range: 1-2
Locks: None
Should be in: St. Mary's
Bubble riders: None
Gonzaga is out of contention for the moment, after losing at home to Memphis on Feb. 5th, but they could still make their way back in.

Guess Who?

2011-02-09T07:52:00.002-06:00

It's time for blind resumes! Your mission is to identify this team by reading it's record. The first person to identify the team in question wins....absolutely nothing.

The Team in Question:
RPI Rank: 29
Division I record: 18-6
Conference Record: 9-4
SOS: 52
vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
vs. RPI 51-100: 5-2
vs. RPI 101-150: 3-1
vs. RPI 151-200: 3-0
vs. the Dregs(RPI 201+): 5-0
Notes: in a number of brackets, but in 3rd place in their league.

Bracket Watch '11-Now the real fun begins

2011-02-07T13:00:00.000-06:00

First off, for those wondering what happened to the third part of the state of the bubble series, I will get to it this week. Secondly, this week begins the Friday projection series, which will be the same as the Monday projection series. Thirdly, I'll be starting up the blind resumes on Tuesday. Lastly, is anyone as frustrated by the lack of teams willing to step up? I present you my projected field and can say without any resonable doubt, I can't figure it out either.

Projections as if the season ended before Christina Aguilera butchered the Star Spangled Banner.

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southwest(2) vs. Southeast(3)

First Four games:
Tuesday: UAB vs. Richmond; Kansas State vs. Memphis
Wednesday: Hampton(Mid-Eastern) vs. Northern Colorado(Big Sky); Northwestern State(Southland) vs. Texas Southern(Southwestern)

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Northwestern State/Texas Southern
8-Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial) vs. 9-Marquette
@ Denver
4-Missouri vs. 13-Alabama(Southeastern)
5-Syracuse vs. 12-Cleveland State(Horizon)
@ Washington, D.C.
2-Connecticut vs. 15-Vermont(America East)
7-Minnesota vs. 10-Wichita State
@ Tucson
3-San Diego State vs. 14-Kent State
6-Washington vs. 11-Georgia

West Region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas vs. 16-Long Beach State(Big West)
8-Boston College vs. 9-St. John's
@ Tucson
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Oakland
5-Kentucky vs. 12-UAB/Richmond
@ Charlotte
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Coastal Carolina
7-West Virginia vs. 10-Temple
3-Georgetown vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Illinois vs. 11-George Mason

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Texas(Big 12) vs. 16-Hampton/Northern Colorado
8-Florida State vs. 9-St. Mary's(West Coast)
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Princeton(Ivy)
5-Tennessee vs. 12-Duquesne
@ Chicago
2-Purdue vs. 15-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
7-UNLV vs. 10-Utah State(Western Athletic)
3-Notre Dame vs. 14-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
6-Arizona(Pacific-10) vs. 11-Clemson

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
8-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 9-UCLA
@ Tampa
4-Florida vs. 13-Kansas State/Memphis
5-North Carolina vs. 12-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Island(Northeast)
7-Texas A&M vs. 10-Cincinnati
@ Washington, D.C.
3-Villanova vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-UTEP(Conference USA)

New to the field: Vermont, Clemson, Richmond, Northern Colorado, Kansas State, George Mason, UAB, UTEP, Princeton, Hampton, Murray State, College of Charleston, Northwestern State
Leaving the field: Maine, Montana, Michigan State, Penn State, Nebraska, Old Dominion, Harvard, Bethune Cookman, Missouri State, Austin Peay, Wofford, McNeese State

Last four in the field: UAB, Kansas State, Richmond, Memphis
First four left out: Michigan State, Old Dominion, Baylor, South Carolina
Next four left out: Missouri State, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Harvard
The under-consideration board: Miami(FL), Virginia Tech, Dayton, Providence, Michigan, Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa State, Southern Mississippi, Butler, Washington State, Gonzaga

State of the Bubble-Horizon League to Ohio Valley

2011-02-02T09:01:00.002-06:00

State of the Bubble: America East to Conference USA

2011-02-01T10:00:00.000-06:00

My fellow Americans, this is indeed a troubled time for our bubble. It is being forced to deal with a growing number of teams wishing to reside on it's surface. It's shrinking land mass means a potential for a big crisis. Let there be no doubt whatsoever though, it will continue to weed out those who have been unlucky to fall in to the bad side. And by the middle of March, only those who have persevered will be moved to stronger and more stable positions in the bracket. Let us take an examination at who shall be finding themselves in the so-called promised land of the field of 68.

America East
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: Maine, Vermont, Boston University
The Black Bears, who have exactly ZERO postseason appearances at the Division I level, hold a one game lead over the Catamounts, but it's essentially two games, since Maine won the first contest(rather convincingly) in Burlington. Don't count out the Catamounts or Terriers though, both face the Black Bears once more and both are capable of thwarting the momentum.

Atlantic Coast
Expected bid range: 4-7
Locks: Duke
Should be there: North Carolina
Bubble riders: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, Miami(FL), Virginia Tech
This has been a tough year for the ACC, only Duke has anything close to a solid resume(and even there the Blue Devils got rocked by St. John's). In any other year, the Tar Heels' middling resume would be bubble-worthy, but the fact they have a good chance of a protected seed tells you how much worse the collective shape of all 32 conferences is this year. If it weren't for the fact that they're not hoops royalty, the Seminoles and Eagles would, in my view, not be the bubble riders that they are. The Terps' resume doesn't match up with it's performance...yet. Beat the Blue Devils on Wednesday and they should move above the cut line.

Atlantic Sun
Expected bid: 1
Contenders: Belmont, East Tennessee State
The Bruins of Nashville almost had a resume-changing win that would have gotten it bubble consideration. But they couldn't beat either Vanderbilt or Tennessee(twice), so the fall back to just being the heavy favorite in this low-level league. The Buccaneers are a game and a half behind, but lost to the Bruins in Johnson City, so the must make up ground if they're to get the top seed.

Atlantic 10
Expected bid range: 1-3
Locks: None
Should be in: Temple
Bubble riders: Xavier, Duquesne, Dayton, Richmond
Conference cannibalism has yet to strike here, but the collective heft in non-conference play is rather weak. The Musketeers are the team on the upswing, but it's the Dukes who could end up on top in the conference, even with a weak OOC profile.

Big East
Expected bid range: 8-12
Locks: Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame
Should be in: West Virginia, Syracuse, St. John's
Bubble: Cincinnati, Marquette, Rutgers
Without any reasonable doubt, this is by far the best conference in Division I and this year, that 2005 expansion should pay off with the most bids in the country. Whether or not the league will have ten teams or more in it is in play, but 9 is a certain lock to happen. The only way the 8 bid scenario comes forth is if wacky things happen elsewhere.

Big Sky
Expected bids: 1
Contender: Northern Colorado, Montana
Despite losing 71-70 at Weber State on Saturday, the Bears remain the best contender for the AQ out of the Big Sky. The Grizz, currently up front by half a game, does have the edge for the teams' return game next month. Whoever wins the regular season title will also host the later rounds of the conference tournament.

Big South
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Winthrop
The Chanticleers hold the edge over the Flames in the race for the top spot in this conference, and should expand the edge when the two meet in Conway on Thursday. But you can never count out Randy Peele's Eagles, who since 1999 have(figuratively) owned the league. Last year, Coastal Carolina went 17-1 in the regular season, but the Eagles shut down the Chanticleers' offense and won the bid.

Big Ten
Expected bid range: 6-7
Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Should be in: Michigan State
Bubble riders: Penn State, Michigan
If it weren't for the Big East, the Big Ten would be the best conference in the country. It has a clear leader in Ohio State, several sweet 16 contenders, and two legitamate bubble teams. There's still time for someone like Northwestern to make a run(Did I just really say that?).

Big 12
Expected bid range: 5-7
Locks: Texas, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Should be in: None
Bubble riders: Nebraska, Baylor, Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State
The most dissapointing team in the last group are the Wildcats who are struggling to make it to .500 in the conference. Everyone else on that list have some holes in their resumes. Expect one to three of them to eventually make it in to the field.

Big West
Expected bids: 1
Contenders: Long Beach State, Cal Poly, Fullerton State
The 49ers are running away from the Big West pack, giving coach Dan Monson some relief after his failed tenure at Minnesota.

Colonial
Expected bid range: 1-3
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Bubble riders: Old Dominion, VCU, George Mason
All three bubble teams listed here will face tough competition in the upcoming Bracketbusters series. The Monarchs get to host Cleveland State, the Rams visit Wichita State and the Patriots do battle with Northern Iowa. If they do well, then the Colonial could get an extra team in.

Conference USA
Expected bid range: 1-2
Locks: None
Should be in: None
Bubble riders: Memphis, UAB, UTEP
Conference cannibalism has struck the league with avengance. Central Florida, who had 2 excellent wins over Florida and Miami(FL) is last in the conference having lost at home to East Carolina and Rice. They're no longer in contention. The other three have lots of work to do, especially if one is to breakaway. In all likelyhood, only the conference tournament winner will go.

Bracket Watch '11 - A Super Headache

2011-01-31T09:00:00.001-06:00

Welcome to super week, where we have one last chance(this season hopefully, what with the cloud of a lockout threatening to block us out) to enjoy men grapple with the destiny of a prolate spheroid on 360 feet of space for cash. Which of course means that I'm only a week away from adopting the two-a-week strategy. Brackets he said, toppled goal posts, mileage charts.

Of course it's coming off of a week where Triskaidekaphobia ran rampant over the weekend. 13 teams rated in the Top 25 lost, four of them to fellow top 25ers, 9 fell to those residing out of it. This is starting to make anyone's head explode with confusion(and it won't help that the State of the Bubble is coming, that will easily supply more confusion). How did I handle all of this? Well, here's the latest projection:

Projection done as if the season ended on Sunday.

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southeast(2) vs. Southwest(3)

First Four Pairings:
Tuesday Game A: Baylor vs. Georgia
Tuesday Game B: Nebraska vs. Duquesne
Wednesday Game A: Wofford(Southern) vs. Long Island(Northeast)
Wednesday Game B: McNeese State(Southland) vs. Texas Southern(Southwestern)

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-McNeese State/Texas Southern
8-Nevada-Las Vegas vs. 9-Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial)
@ Tampa
4-Louisville vs. 13-Harvard(Ivy)
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Ucla
@ Washington, DC
2-Connecticut vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Florida State vs. 10-Wichita State
@ Tampa
3-Kentucky vs. 14-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
6-Minnesota vs. 11-Temple

West region

@ Charlotte
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Maine(America East)
8-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 9-Cincinnati
@ Washington, DC
4-Villanova vs. 13-Nebraska/Duquesne
5-Wisconsin vs. 12-Cleveland State(Horizon)
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Montana(Big Sky)
7-Syracuse vs. 10-Michigan State
3-Missouri vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Tennessee vs. 11-Penn State

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Wofford/Long Island
8-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 9-Missouri State(Missouri Valley)
@ Charlotte
4-North Carolina vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Arizona vs. 12-Alabama(Southeastern)
@ Tulsa
2-Kansas vs. 15-Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
7-St. John's vs. 10-Memphis(Conference USA)
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Coastal Carolina(Bug South)
6-Florida vs. 11-West Virginia

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Texas(Big 12) vs. 16-Bethune Cookman(Mid-Eastern)
8-Boston College vs. 9-Marquette
@ Tucson
4-Georgetown vs. 13-Baylor/Georgia
5-Washington(Pacific-10) vs. 12-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
2-San Diego State vs. 15-Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
7-Illinois vs. 10-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Chicago
3-Notre Dame vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-Old Dominion(Colonial)

New to the field: Duquesne, Marquette, St. John's, Montana, Penn State, Nebraska, Old Dominion, VCU, Kent State, Bethune Cookman, Austin Peay, Georgia, Wofford, McNeese State
Leaving the field: Miami(FL), Virginia Tech, Richmond, Northern Colorado, George Mason, Hofstra, Butler, Valparaiso, Ball State, Hampton, Colorado State, Tennessee State, College of Charleston, Lamar

Last four in the field: Baylor, Georgia, Nebraska, Duquesne
First four left out: Virginia Tech, UAB, George Mason, Richmond
Next four left out: Valparaiso, Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Maryland
The under consideration board: Miami(FL), Dayton, Michigan, Kansas State, Colorado, UTEP, Butler, Northern Iowa, Washington State, South Carolina, Boise State

Bracket Watch '11 - Let's go crazy

2011-01-24T09:00:00.000-06:00

With all apologies to Prince(or the artist formerly known as thingy), this past week was the week every bracketologist(and those who just casually follow the sport) had to be clawing out their hair. Numerous teams that were in got hampered with bad losses. Cases in point:

Central Florida
To paraphrase Dennis Green, the Golden Knights are who we thought they were, a pretender to Conference USA's throne. Back-to-back HOME losses to East Carolina and Rice put UCF into the conference cellar and with a trip to Memphis looming this week, don't look for the Knights to resurface anytime soon.

Kansas State
Why, oh why did I have to put up a preseason bracket? Yes, if you recall, I had the Wildcats as a #1 seed, but now with a 1-4 record in Big 12 play, including rough road losses to Missouri and Texas A&M, they're really reeling. And of course it gets worse, they have to go to Lawrence to help Kansas start another homecourt winning streak.

Gonzaga
I fear that the Bulldogs' bloom has finally worn off. Their weekend trip to the Bay Area to face San Francisco and Santa Clara ended with two losses. Now they must face St. Mary's at home in a must win game. If the Bulldogs lose, the hill they have to climb will become a very difficult mountain.

I could go on and on with the bad losses(Butler, Georgia, Colorado, etc.), but I can't, we must move on with the projections.

Projection done as if the season ended last night.

Final Four pairings
Southeast(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. Southwest(3)

The First Four:
Tuesday Game A: Lamar(Southland) vs. Texas Southern(Southwestern)
Tuesday Game B: Colorado State vs. Butler
Wednesday Game A: Long Island(Northeast) vs. Tennessee State(Ohio Valley)
Wednesday Game B: George Mason vs. UCLA

Southeast Region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Maine(America East)
8-Missouri State(Missouri Valley) vs. 9-Miami(FL)
@ Tampa
4-Missouri vs. 13-Colorado State/Butler
5-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 12-Cincinnati
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Northern Colorado(Big Sky)
7-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 10-Boston College
@ Washington, DC
3-Syracuse vs. 14-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
6-Arizona vs. 11-Memphis

West region

@ Tucson
1-San Diego State vs. 16-Lamar/Texas Southern
8-Tennessee vs. 9-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Denver
4-Washington(Pacific-10) vs. 13-Hofstra(Colonial)
5-Minnesota vs. 12-Valparaiso(Horizon)
@ Tulsa
2-Kansas vs. 15-Hampton(Mid-Eastern)
7-North Carolina vs. 10-Marquette
@ Charlotte
3-Connecticut vs. 14-Ball State(Mid-American)
6-Illinois vs. 11-Marquette

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 16-Long Island/Tennessee State
8-Nevada-Las Vegas vs. 9-Temple
@ Tampa
4-Kentucky vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Wisconsin vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Tulsa
2-Texas(Big 12) vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Louisville vs. 10-Wichita State
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Notre Dame vs. 11-Cleveland State

Southwest region

@ Charlotte
1-Duke vs. 16-Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
8-West Virginia vs. 9-Baylor
@ Chicago
4-Michigan State vs. 13-Harvard(Ivy)
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-George Mason/UCLA
@ Washington, DC
2-Villanova vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Florida State(Atlantic Coast) vs. 10-Xavier(Atlantic 10)
@ Tucson
3-Texas A&M vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)

New to the field: Miami(FL), Richmond, Marquette, George Mason, Hofstra, Memphis, Cleveland State, Fairfield, Hampton, Colorado State, Tennessee State, UCLA, College of Charleston, Lamar
Leaving the field: St. John's, Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Virginia Commonwealth, Central Florida, Southern Mississippi, Iona, Morgan State, Austin Peay, Georgia, Chattanooga, McNeese State, Gonzaga

Last four in the field: George Mason, UCLA, Colorado State, Butler
First four left out: Oklahoma State, Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga
Next four left out: St. John's, Alabama, Indiana State, Duquesne
The rest of the under-consideration board: Maryland, Providence, Penn State, Kansas State, Nebraska, Iowa State, Colorado, UTEP, Central Florida, Princeton, Southern California, Washington State, Georgia, South Carolina

After next week's projections, I'll have my annual State of the Bubble series, thouorghly examining all 31 AQ conferences and their chances for at-large bids.

Bracket Watch '11 - What you won't be seeing this year

2011-01-17T11:00:00.003-06:00

Since I've decided to add a new project to my schedule, I will not be updating the Conference Tournament Central Blog this year. In fact, I might just delete it altogether, seeing that everyone else has Championship Week coverage. So anyway on with the brackets(done as if the season ended last night).

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southeast(2) vs. Southwest(3)

First four pairings:
Tuesday Game A: Baylor vs. Cincinnati
Tuesday Game B: McNeese State(Southland) vs. Chattanooga(Southern)
Wednesday Game A: Maine(America East) vs. Texas Southern(Southwestern)
Wednesday Game B: Butler vs. Virginia Tech

East region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 16-McNeese State/Chattanooga
8-St. John's vs. 9-Central Florida
@ Denver
4-Texas vs. 13-Valparaiso(Horizon)
5-Washington(Pacific-10) vs. 12-Oakland(Summit)
@ Washington, DC
2-Villanova vs. 15-Iona(Metro Atlantic)
7-Florida State vs. 10-Colorado
@ Tampa
3-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 14-Long Island(Northeast)
6-Temple vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

West region

@ Washington, DC
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Northern Colorado(Big Sky)
8-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 9-Kansas State
@ Charlotte
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Baylor/Cincinnati
5-Florida vs. 12-Virginia Commonwealth(Colonial)
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State(Mountain West) vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Vanderbilt vs. 10-Boston College
@ Tulsa
3-Texas A&M(Big 12) vs. 14-Southern Mississippi(Conference USA)
6-West Virginia vs. 11-Tennessee

Southeast region

@ Charlotte
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Maine/Texas Southern
8-Missouri vs. 9-Gonzaga
@ Tucson
4-Michigan State vs. 13-Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-Minnesota vs. 10-Oklahoma State
@ Tampa
3-Connecticut vs. 14-Ball State(Mid-American)
6-Missouri State(Missouri Valley) vs. 11-Georgia

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas vs. 16-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
8-Louisville vs. 9-Wichita State
@ Chicago
4-Notre Dame vs. 13-Harvard(Ivy)
5-Illinois vs. 12-Butler/Virginia Tech
@ Cleveland
2-Pittsburgh vs. 15-Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
7-UNLV vs. 10-Arizona
@ Chicago
3-Purdue vs. 14-Bucknell(Patriot)
6-North Carolina vs. 11-Xavier(Atlantic 10)

Last four in the field: Butler, Virginia Tech, Baylor, Cincinnati
First four left out: Memphis, Dayton, Richmond, Southern California
Next four left out: Old Dominion, Nebraska, Penn State, Washington State
The under-consideration board: Miami(FL), Maryland, NC State, Duquesne, Marquette, Michigan, Iowa State, Drexel, UTEP, Cleveland State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, UCLA, Alabama, Arkansas, Boise State

EDIT: I realized that Louisville had been inadvertnently omitted from the field, so they're back in and Cleveland State is dropped.

The next projection will be Monday, 1-24.

Bracket Watch '11 - Oh, woe is Tennessee

2011-01-10T11:00:00.000-06:00

It's hard to be a Tennessee fan. Not only do the Vols have four questionable losses this year(three were in Knoxville), they now have to play half of the SEC slate without Bruce Pearl roaming the sidelines(He will be allowed to coach vs. Connecticut on the 22nd). Normally, the NCAA does not look at a team's situation when it doesn't have it's coach, but something tells me that may be different this year. What will hurt the Vols more than anything else is that the 2nd half of the SEC slate is more difficult than the first, with Kentucky on the slate twice.

Because of this, the Vols are the last team left out of my field of 68 this week. The whole thing follows as this:

Based on all games played as of 1/9

Final Four pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southeast(2) vs. Southwest(3)

First Four games
Tuesday
Game A: Baylor vs. Old Dominion
Game B: Southern California vs. Richmond
Wednesday
Game A: Wagner(Northeast) vs. Hartford(America East)
Game B: Nicholls State(Southland) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)

East region

@ Charlotte
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. Nicholls State/Jackson State
8-West Virginia vs. 9-Missouri State(Missouri Valley)
@ Denver
4-Washington(Pacific-10) vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Missouri vs. 12-Tulane(Conference USA)
@ Chicago
2-Notre Dame vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Texas vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Cleveland
3-Purdue(Big Ten) vs. 14-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-Cincinnati

West region

@ Washington, DC
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Hampton(Mid-Eastern)
8-Central Florida vs. 9-Minnesota
@ Tampa
4-Illinois vs. 13-Baylor/Old Dominion
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-Boise State(Western Athletic)
7-Butler(Horizon) vs. 10-Georgia
@ Tulsa
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-Northern Colorado(Big Sky)
6-Kansas State vs. 11-Washington State

Southeast region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State vs. 16-Wagner/Hartford
8-St. John's vs. 9-Gonzaga
@ Tampa
4-Florida(Southeastern) vs. 13-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
5-Texas A&M(Big 12) vs. 12-College of Charleston(Southern)
@ Denver
2-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-Arizona vs. 10-Oklahoma State
@ Washington DC
3-Connecticut vs. 14-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
6-Boston College vs. 11-Memphis

Southwest region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas vs. 16-Florida Atlantic(Sun Belt)
8-St. Mary's(West Coast) vs. 9-Louisville
@ Tucson
4-Georgetown vs. 13-Harvard(Ivy)
5-Wisconsin vs. 12-Southern California/Richmond
@ Charlotte
2-Kentucky vs. 15-Ball State(Mid-American)
7-Michigan State vs. 10-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Chicago
3-Villanova vs. 14-Hofstra(Colonial)
6-North Carolina vs. 11-Wichita State

Dropped from last week's field: Maine, Florida State, Lipscomb, Dayton, Montana, Liberty, Drexel, Cleveland State, Princeton, Iona, St. Francis(NY), Tennessee, Chattanooga, North Texas, Portland, Utah State
New to the field: Hartford, Belmont, Richmond, Northern Colorado, Coastal Carolina, Baylor, Hofstra, Tulane, Harvard, Fairfield, Missouri State, Wagner, Georgia, College of Charleston, Florida Atlantic, Boise State

Last four in the field: Southern California, Richmond, Baylor, Old Dominion
First four on the outside: Tennessee, Florida State, Marquette, Cleveland State
Next four on the outside: Maryland, Utah State, Dayton, Arkansas
The under-consideration board: North Carolina State, Xavier, Michigan, Northwestern, Iowa State, Nebraska, Southern Mississippi, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, UCLA, Stanford, Alabama

Next projection: Monday of course.

Bracket Watch '11-And so it begins anew

2011-01-03T13:00:00.000-06:00

Welcome back to Bracket Watch for 2011. As you read last week(or should have read), this week marks the start of real conference play for everyone(but not for the Ivy League. They begin their play towards the end of this month). With the end of non-conference play, it's time for the first look at how the field would measure up if the season had already stopped.

Final Four pairings:
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southeast(2) vs. Southwest(3)

The First Four
Tuesday: Old Dominion vs. Southern California; St. Francis of NY(Northeast) vs. Liberty(Big South)
Wednesday: Tennessee vs. Gonzaga; Nicholls State(Southland) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)

East Region

@ Charlotte
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. Nicholls State/Jackson State
8-Texas vs. 9-Louisville
@ Chicago
4-Purdue(Big Ten) vs. 13-Lipscomb(Atlantic Sun)
5-Villanova vs. 12-Portland(West Coast)
@ Charlotte
2-Georgetown vs. 15-Ball State(Mid-American)
7-Arizona vs. 10-Vanderbilt
@ Tulsa
3-Kansas State vs. 14-Iona(Metro Atlantic)
6-Wisconsin vs. 11-Cleveland State(Horizon)

West Region

@ Washington, DC
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Hampton(Mid-Eastern)
8-Michigan State vs. 9-Florida State
@ Tucson
4-Washington(Pacific-10) vs. 13-Montana(Big Sky)
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Oakland(Summit)
@ Tampa
2-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 15-Long Beach State(Big West)
7-St. Mary's vs. 10-Boston College
@ Denver
3-Brigham Young(Mountain West) vs. 14-North Texas(Sun Belt)
6-Cincinnati vs. 11-Butler

Southeast Region

@ Cleveland
1-Ohio State vs. 16-St. Francis of NY/Liberty
8-Wichita State(Missouri Valley) vs. 9-Drexel(Colonial)
@ Chicago
4-Missouri vs. 13-Princeton(Ivy)
5-St. John's vs. 12-Tennessee/Gonzaga
@ Tucson
2-San Diego State vs. 15-Maine(America East)
7-North Carolina vs. 10-Oklahoma State
@ Cleveland
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-Austin Peay(Ohio Valley)
6-Central Florida(Conference USA) vs. 11-Dayton

Southwest Region

@ Tulsa
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Chattanooga(Southern)
8-West Virginia vs. 9-UNLV
@ Tampa
4-Florida vs. 13-Old Dominion/Southern California
5-Illinois vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Washington, DC
2-Connecticut vs. 15-Bucknell(Patriot)
7-Temple vs. 10-Minnesota
@ Denver
3-Notre Dame vs. 14-Utah State(Western Athletic)
6-Memphis vs. 11-Washington State

By Conference: Big East(10!!!!), Big Ten(6), Big 12(6), Atlantic Coast(5), Pacific-10(4), Southeastern(4), Mountain West(3), West Coast(3), Atlantic 10(2), Colonial(2), Conference USA(2), Horizon(2)

Last four in the field: Tennessee, Gonzaga, Old Dominion, Southern California
First four on the outside: Baylor, Missouri State, Maryland, Northwestern
Next four on the outside: Richmond, New Mexico, George Mason, Miami(FL)
The Under Consideration Board: NC State, Marquette, Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa State, VCU, Southern Mississippi, Harvard, UCLA, Georgia, Mississippi

Tomorrow, I'll answer some question you may have thought of asking.

How the brackets roll

2010-12-27T17:12:00.000-06:00

There's no need for an APB on my whereabouts, I'm perfectly fine. I just haven't had much to talk about since my preseason bracket. But now that bracket season is upon us, let me reset on how the brackets go.

1. All brackets are done as if the season has already ended. For a typical Monday bracket, the season ends on Sunday.
2. Every team is evaluated and placed accordingly if they were evaulated by by the committee, not my personal beliefs.
3. In determining the AQ's, the team with the best record in the conference in question will represent it. If there's a tie, the bid goes to the team who:
A) Has won the head-to-head matchup, or series(includes ties of more than two teams);
B) If no meeting has taken place, or the tie cannot be reasonably broken, the team that has the better RPI* rank.

*I'll be using Rivals' RPI numbers in determining tie-breakers again this year.

Note: I will try to do a daily recap of the major stories of the night previous, but it will not be a regularly scheduled post. Also, starting in Feburary, I'll post blind resumes of selected teams and you try to guess who they are. That's all from me, good day.

Bracket Watch '11-Preseason Look At the End Result

2010-11-08T08:52:00.002-06:00

Yes, you've heard right. I'm doing a preseason bracket this year. And to put a twist to it, I've decided to dispense with the excuses and predict who will be the lucky 68. First a primer of what happened over the past seven months.

Enter the First Four
Part of the new NCAA tournament structure is the expansion of the segment formerly known as the "Opening Round" to four games(hence the title). Rather than force the eight lowest teams playing off to get creamed by Duke, only the four lowest on the "True Seed List" make it to Dayton. And there are two conferences that won't be there, the Big South and the SWAC. Apparently whoever wins those leagues will be placed in the regular field. The other teams diverted to Southwest Ohio are the four lowest at-large teams, so yes you'll find out who just made it in by the skin of their teeth. Now, I'm not sure if the pairings will be say 47 vs. 50 and 48 vs. 49(like in this projection) or 47 vs. 49 and 50 vs. 48. That will be known at the time of the placement. These games will be played on Tuesday and Wednesday, making it possible that the winners on Tuesday will play on Thursday and the Wednesday winners will play on Friday. That depends on where the placements are.

Turner the page
As I've posted earlier, Turner Broadcasting has joined CBS as a partner in NCAA coverage starting in March. The games will(besides being on CBS) be also shown on TBS, TNT and TruTV, making it very possible that every game will be available nationally. DirecTV could continue offering Mega March Madness as it's own GameMix channel(and available to everyone with DirecTV), but we haven't heard anything on that front.

The conferences they are a changin'
For a period of a day, the college conference landscape was on the verge of massive chaos. In the end, however, it may still explode. But for now, here's a scorecard:

*Nebraska will leave the Big 12 for the Big Ten(giving it 12 teams).
*Colorado will also leave the Big 12, heading for the Pac-12.
*Texas decided to stay put, keeping the Big 12 alive. But if their proposed Longhorn Network gets off the ground(and the Texas Legislature sits on their hands), look for the Horns to unhook themselves from the Big 12 and go independent.
*The Mountain West gained Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada. But they're going to lose Brigham Young(Independent in football, West Coast everywhere else) and Utah(Pac-12), and may still lose Texas Christian to the BIG East.
*The WAC missed out on BYU, and lost it's three highest profile members. Montana, UTSA, Texas State and Seattle may be fallback options.

Now that you're up to date, let's go to March 13th and see what develops.

Final Four Pairings
East(1) vs. West(4)
Southeast(2) vs. Southwest(3)

First Four Matchups(Dayton, OH/UD Arena)
Tuesday
Game A: IUPUI(Summit) vs. Texas-San Antonio(Southland)
Game B: New Mexico vs. Washington State
Wednesday
Game C: Virginia Commonwealth vs. Penn State
Game D: Robert Morris(Northeast) vs. Maine(America East)

2nd and 3rd Rounds:

EAST Region

At Charlotte(Time Warner Cable Arena)
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Lafayette(Patriot)
8-Marquette vs. 9-Wichita State
At Denver(Pepsi Center)
4-Illinois vs. 13-Fairfield(Metro Atlantic)
5-Tennessee vs. 12-New Mexico/Washington State
At Washington, DC(Verizon Center)
2-Pittsburgh(Big East) vs. 15-Cornell(Ivy League)
7-Xavier vs. 10-North Carolina State
At Tucson(McKale Center)
3-Baylor vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Wisconsin vs. 11-Connecticut

WEST Region

At Denver
1-Kansas State(Big 12) vs. 16-IUPUI/UTSA
8-Brigham Young vs. 9-Mississippi State
At Tucson
4-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 13-Utah State(Western Athletic)
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Clemson
At Washington, DC
2-Syracuse vs. 15-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
7-Virginia Tech vs. 10-Dayton(Atlantic 10)
At Chicago(United Center)
3-Purdue vs. 14-Ohio(Mid-American)
6-Washington vs. 11-Texas

SOUTHEAST Region

At Cleveland(Quicken Loans Arena)
1-Michigan State(Big Ten) vs. 16-Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Texas A&M vs. 9-UCLA(Pacific-10)
At Tampa(St. Pete Times Forum)
4-West Virginia vs. 13-Wofford(Southern)
5-Florida vs. 12-VCU/Penn State
At Tulsa(BOK Center)
2-Memphis(Conference USA) vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-San Diego State(Mountain West) vs. 10-Minnesota
At Charlotte
3-North Carolina vs. 14-Winthrop(Big South)
6-Villanova vs. 11-Richmond

SOUTHWEST Region

At Cleveland
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Robert Morris/Maine
8-Nevada-Las Vegas vs. 9-Northwestern
At Tampa
4-Georgetown vs. 13-William & Mary(Colonial)
5-Missouri vs. 12-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
At Chicago
2-Ohio State vs. 15-North Texas(Sun Belt)
7-Florida State vs. 10-Louisville
At Tulsa
3-Kansas vs. 14-Long Beach State(Big West)
6-Temple vs. 11-Missouri State(Missouri Valley)

First Four left out: Maryland, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia
Next Four in line: Bradley, Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Texas-El Paso
Also under consideration: Miami, Virginia, Rhode Island, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Colorado, Central Florida, Detroit, Creighton, California, Oregon, Alabama, Fresno State.

Reminder: The first "real" bracket will debut on January 3rd.

Coming soon....

2010-10-20T09:31:00.002-05:00

Yes, I'm intending to do a preseason bracket this season, only to see what it looks like.

The ESPN SuperLeague?

2010-08-19T21:12:00.002-05:00

Now I don't have any link that would indicate such a thing, but the new rumor around the nation is that ESPN(TWWMIS) has proposed a new alignment that would merge various elements of the Mountain West, Sun Belt and Western Athletic Conferences and Conference USA into a single SUPERLEAGUE. 20 teams would be involved. The actual list of teams for the proposal is unknown, but I have a hunch it will involve the following:

Air Force, Brigham Young, Boise State, San Diego State, Houston, TCU, Nevada, UNLV, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, New Mexico, Utah State, Tulsa, Wyoming, Fresno State, Colorado State and 4 of the following: Rice, SMU, Tulane, New Mexico State, Hawai'i, North Texas, Memphis and Southern Mississippi.

The 1996-99 WAC thinks this is too spread out, but then again ESPN has a hand in this, and I would expect them to reshape the provinces in their desired shape, as well as to bich-slap CBS College Sports, FSN and Vs. at the same time with their other hand.

MWC+WAC=MAD

2010-08-19T09:53:00.002-05:00

Now that Fresno State and Nevada have accepted the Mountain West's overtures, the ball is back in BYU's hands, and the Cougars have three options.

1) Continue to stick it to the MWC and say yes to the WAC(not to mention it's desired football independence);
2) Follow option 1, but go to the more stable West Coast Conference, to which it would immediately form rivalries with Gonzaga and St. Mary's, or;
3) Wimp out and return to the MWC, who will then try to lure Houston or Hawai'i into it's ranks for a 12-team Pac-12 Jr. Of course, this particular lineup still won't be able to secure a BCS Automatic Qualifying Berth because the BCS 6 is the sporting equivalent of a high school girl pack(The Big Ten+2 and SEC are fighting out for the role of The Libby(don't ask)).

Give me Liberty, or a new TV deal

2010-08-18T17:50:00.003-05:00

Appalled at the paltry $2 million dollars they were getting annually from CBS College Sports and Vs., Brigham Young has all but declared it's independence from the Mountain West Conference in football and pull a Notre Dame by placing basketball(and the other not-on-the-bus sports) in the Western Athletic Conference. The MWC, however, in the realignment equivalent of the formation of Mount Everest, has responded by inviting Fresno State and Nevada to join fellow ex-WACer Boise State and seven others in a new 10 team concoction, but a 5 million dollar penalty may make the Bulldogs and Wolfpack stay put(and allow the WAC to reclaim Boise, but also San Diego State and UNLV in the process). Not that it will mean much, even for the brief period of time the Cougars, Broncos, TCU and Utah there was little chance the MWC would even have a fleeting chance of securing a BCS AQ spot. It's all about BYU's opprotunity to present it's own sports programs on it's BYU-TV channel, which is available to about 50 million homes.

And speaking of confusing battle cries....
DEATH BY BROWN PANTS!!!!

What's taking the NCAA so long?

2010-07-16T11:43:00.003-05:00

It amazes me that almost 3 years from now, the NCAA still hasn't named a host site for the 2013 Men's East Regional site. When the other sites were announced back in September, the smart money had Madison Square Garden as the money, but that was until the arena pushed back it's renovation completion schedule to the Fall of 2013, meaning it's likely to wait for 2015 or 16 before putting up a bid. Who else could serve as the host? It appears now that IMO, the HSBC Arena in Buffalo, the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, and the Comcast Center in College Park, MD are the leading candidates to host the East Regional, unless the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia is convinced to move up from hosting preliminary round games.

Dan Beebe - HERO!

2010-06-14T18:09:00.003-05:00

Well, the deed is done. Dan Beebe, the Big 12-2 commissioner, was able to sell the University of Texas an 11th hour and 59th minute TV deal/bribe/payola scheme to secure the Longhorns place in the conference and preserve it at ten teams. The most striking part of the new TV deal, which is still being worked on, is the ability for schools, like the Longhorns, to create their own networks(Say hi to LonghornTV in a few years). Texas is said to have the opprotunity to make as much a $5 million a year within a few years. Oklahoma and Texas A&M are also expected to reap in more TV cash, as much as $20 million annually. One major loss, is the loss of the conference championship game in football. It's unlikely the NCAA will allow for a ten-team league to have such a contest, even if it would be held at JerryWorld. Losing Nebraska to the Big Ten+2 and Colorado to the Pacific-10+1 will do that to you.

What does this mean for superexpansion? Texas' move probably stops it dead in it's tracks for now, but it could all change. The SEC, for instance, could still court Texas A&M for it's league, but the Aggies are likely to say no. But if they do(and the SEC goes all-out to raid the ACC as well), it could once again leave the Longhorns making a phone call to Larry Scott of the Pacific-11 to join Colorado(and possibly Utah, whom the Pac-11 will now covet).

UPDATE: Both Oklahoma and Texas A&M have reversed course and will stay in the Big 12-2.

Bonkers....just bonkers

2010-06-03T19:35:00.002-05:00

When I first read the link above this afternoon, I was agog with chills. The Pac-10 couldn't be the first one to act in the realignment dance, could they? Well unless Stanford exercises it's super veto, the left coasters are about to adopt a Texas twang. The report from Orangebloods.com says that Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech will be invited to join the Pac-10 as early as this weekend, possibly to trump the Mountain West's move to invite the Boise State Fighting Smurfs for 2011.

The move will force the Big Ten to respond in kind. Since Nebraska and Missouri are rumored to be close to accepting Jim Delany's affections, could Kansas also be on the radar(Don't snicker, KU will help secure the Kansas City market and it's hoops program would immediately bolster the Big Ten's hoop rep). For the east, look for Rutgers and Syracuse to be included, with Notre Dame and Pittsburgh left out. And of course the SEC will respond as well, but they won't take the likes of Clemson or Georgia Tech or even Miami. The SEC will want to rip the heart out of the ACC by inviting Duke and North Carolina, plus Virginia and Florida State. The ACC is then forced to merge with what's left of the Big East.

Far-fetched? Perhaps, but time will tell if the move goes through or not.

Supersize Me: The College Conference Edition

2010-05-11T15:23:00.001-05:00

When I was thinking about making a post about the impending expansion of the Big Ten Conference, I had several titles in mind: 20 is the new 16, War of the College Conferences, Conference Roulette, The Axis of College Athletic Superiority, The Same Ole' Order(but in new packaging), and so on. But when I decided to pay homage to Morgan Spurlock's homage to American decadence by McNuggets, the title of this post made sense.

Now that it appears that the Big Televen is on the verge of becoming the Big Ten-Six, who's to say the conference landscape, with respect to the Division I-FBS level, won't stop at 16? Will 20 teams be the new level of dominance? Well, I got to thinking about it, and folks, it's not pretty.

The initial salvo
The Big Ten, as it has been speculated, is expected to open the proceedings in the next few weeks to formally announce it will add from 1 to 5 teams to it's harem. If it only one, particularly if it's only Notre Dame, the next move could be the Big East fortifying it's ranks by adding Memphis, East Carolina, Central Florida and either Buffalo or Temple. Conference USA would then add Louisiana Tech, Georgia State(Football newbie) and Florida Atlantic. If it's either Missouri or Nebraska, the Big 12 welcomes Texas Christian to the group. If it's Rutgers, the Big East finally convinces Notre Dame to surrender it's football independence (which would be detrimental to the success of the Big Ten).

An alternate route
Should the Big Ten go to 14, the shake out could end up like this:
-Missouri, Nebraska and Rutgers to the Big Ten
-Colorado State and TCU to the Big 12
-Buffalo, Central Florida, East Carolina, Memphis, and Temple to the Big East
-Boise State, Fresno State, Hawai'i, Nevada, and Utah State to the Mountain West
-Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State to Conference USA
-Marshall to the MAC(again)
-Sun Belt reorganizes with Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Louisana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, UTSA, Troy, Western Kentucky
-Idaho and San Jose State leave the FBS to join the FCS(The Vandals to the Big Sky, the Spartans to the Great West)

Response and counter-response
If the Big Ten gets to the ultimate goal of 16 teams, the consequences could virtually render the scene unrecognizable:
Let's say the Big Ten gets Notre Dame to finally say yes to membership, it still leaves one spot open. With Missouri, Nebraska, and Rutgers already on board, Jim Delany offers membership to Syracuse(a compliment to Rutgers in the New York City market), completing the expansion with a collection of markets and research dollars far superior to the other conferences out there. However, Mike Slive and the SEC decide they need to "UP THE ANTE" by announcing that they will pursue 20 teams(in essence, Zillioning Down on their growth). To do so, they expel Mississippi State(no offense Bulldog Fans, it's a hypothetical expulsion) and proceed to go Rumsfeld on the Big 12 and the ACC. From the East; Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia and Duke are invited(thereby pumping up the SEC's weak academic resume). From the West; Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State join in, thereby killing off the Big 12 in the process. In response, the Big Ten adds Iowa State and Kansas from what's left of the Big 12, also adding Pittsburgh from the comatose Big East and Maryland from the comatose ACC. Out West, the Pac-10, tired of Stanford's Supermega Veto, secretly vote to change the rules to require only 7 votes to expand, then they proceed to invite Colorado, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas Tech to the league. But to cement it's status as the Big Kahunas out West, they get BYU, New Mexico, UNLV, Utah, and Colorado State from the Mountain West, as well as Boise State of the WAC to become the Pac-20.
Meanwhile, the leftovers of the Big East(UConn, Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia and South Florida) and the ACC(Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest) come together with other misfits(Army, Navy, Temple, Memphis, East Carolina, South Florida, UAB, Georgia State and Missisippi State) to become the Eastern 20.

The End Result

Big 20:
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Eastern 20:
UAB, Army, Boston College, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Clemson, Connecticut, East Carolina, Georgia State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, Mississippi State, Navy, North Carolina State, South Florida, Temple, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Pacific-20:
Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Boise State, Brigham Young, California, UCLA, Colorado, Colorado State, Kansas State, UNLV, New Mexico, Oregon, Oregon State, Southern California, Stanford, Texas Tech, Utah, Washington, Washington State

SEC:
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Duke, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Miami(FL), Ole Miss, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia

The Left Behinds
Those not included in the new power structure are forced to drop down to the FCS level.

Note: This is all hypothetical, if it does turn out the way it does, feel free to call me a prophet.

Winners and Losers

2010-04-23T10:21:00.003-05:00

If you've been living under a rock, paying attention to the NFL Annual Selection Meeting way too much, or just don't care for the past 24 hours, you've missed a huge sigh of relief from many in the sports world. The NCAA decided NOT to expand the Division I Men's Basketball Tournament to an ungodly 96 teams, but rather to 68, and it also signed a 14-year, 11 billion dollar agreement with CBS and Turner Broadcasting to carry it.

There are plenty of winners and losers in this deal, first the winners...

CBS
Back in the early 90's, Black Rock suffered a series of stinging losses and it looked possible that it could do so again starting with this event. But coming off ratings that were the highest in several years, it was able to gain leverage during negotiations that allowed it to continue to remain the primary partner until 2016, when it will begin alternating the Final Fourwith...

Turner
Lauded for it's presentation of NASCAR Sprint Cup races, the NBA and MLB, the TimeWarner division has been able to demonstrate that it produces high quality productions for the sports it carries. Now it gets a very high profile annual event it can effectively promote across many platforms and it helps lift the profile of TruTV, one of the new carriers alongside TNT and TBS, from that of a reoriented CourtTV into a channel of it's own.

Coaches...eh sort of
Much of the push for expansion came from a number of coaches, particularly from the likes of Jim Boeheim, who has always been an advocate of a larger field. The downside is that these coaches will be under even greater pressure to perform to ensure one of the new bids.

Advocates against a 96-team field
Many in the media were dreading a possible expansion to 96, but with the new deal in place, a lot have voiced their approval that it won't happen right away. In fact, if the new format proves successful, you'll might see public sentiment start to shift back to pursuring a 96-team option once again. But it's my belief that won't happen for awhile.

The NIT
Had there been a 96-team field been implemented, this venerable tournament would have gone the way of dodo. As it is, future fields will still be weaker as those that would have been 35-37th on the at-large list will now move up to the "Senior prom". Nonetheless, Madison Square Garden will still be rocking in the days before the Final Four.

ESPN
Why would I put the World Wide Monopolizer in the winners category, well it's for several reasons:
1) The money not spent on locking up the Final Four will now likely be used for pursing an even bigger event(The details of which I will spell out below momentarily);
2) It will still have far more games to air the regular season as well as it's popular Championship Week coverage; and
3) It still has the rights to the Women's Final Four and other NCAA tournaments(not to mention the BCS).

The losers in the aftermath are...
NBC Comcast and News Corporation
The immediate fallout of the new NCAA deal with CBS/Turner means that ESPN now has the cash on hand to make a serious run for future rights to the Olympic Games. Which means these companies(NBC Comcast in particular) will have to put up a lot more money to gain the lucrative U.S. rights.

DirecTV
Say goodbye to MegaMarchMadness as all games will now be available on a national basis for the 1st time. Now DirecTV could still create a mix channel that would show all channels on a single screen, but we'll have to wait and see what the NCAA does with the scheduling.

Advocates for a 96-team field
They believed that it would happen, but with the field now at 68, the dream of a 96-team field will be left to wonder whom screwed who? And why were they screwed?

The jury's still out on...

Those not in the BCS 6
With three additional bids now available, one would hope that those not apart of the BCS 6 would have greater access, but since every year is different, we'll look back next year and judge whether or not it will be a benefit, or will the BCS 6 will still dominate the selections.

OT: Guess the Minnesota Viking schedule

2010-04-16T12:07:00.002-05:00

I'm inviting my readers to a challenge. Make out the Minnesota Vikings 2010 schedule, before it's released Tuesday Night.

For the sake of reference, here's the detailed breakdown of whom the Vikings are playing this upcoming season:

Home
Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Dallas, New York Giants, Buffalo, Miami, Arizona

Road
Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Washington, New England, New York Jets, New Orleans

In case you were wondering, here's my attempt at it(all times Central):

Week 1: @ New Orleans(NBC; 7:30 Thursday 9-9)
Week 2: @ Washington(Fox; Noon)
Week 3: Chicago(Fox; Noon)
Week 4: @ Detroit(Fox; Noon)
Week 5: New York Giants(NBC; 7:20)
Week 6: Green Bay(Fox; 3:15)
Week 7: Miami(CBS; Noon)
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: @ Philadelphia(Fox; 3:15)
Week 10: @ New England(NBC; 7:20)
Week 11: Dallas(Fox; 3:15)*
Week 12: Arizona(Fox; Noon)*
Week 13: @ New York Jets(ESPN MNF; 7:30)
Week 14: @ Green Bay(Fox; Noon)*
Week 15: Buffalo(CBS; 3:15)*
Week 16: @ Chicago(Fox; Noon)*
Week 17: Detroit(Fox; Noon)*

*Subject to flexing

Who's bidding for March Madness in 2014-2016

2010-03-30T13:42:00.004-05:00

With anticipation that the NCAA will award early-round hosting duties for 2014-2016 as early as this fall, here are the cities that have thus far made their intentions known(* Indicates that venue is guaranteed a regional the year before it hosts Final Four):

Buffalo at HSBC Arena(Canisius College, Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and Niagara University)
Des Moines at Wells Fargo Arena(Drake University)
Houston at Reliant Stadium(Big 12 Conference)*
Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium(Butler University, IUPUI and Horizon League)*
Jacksonville, FL at Jacksonville Veterans Memorial Arena(Jacksonville University)
Milwaukee at Bradley Center(Marquette University)
St. Louis at either Edward Jones Dome or Scottrade Center(Missouri Valley Conference)
San Jose at HP Pavillion(Unknown host school and/or conference)
Wichita at InTrustBank Arena(Wichita State University)

School planning to bid, but unknown location:
University of Minnesota(Metrodome, Target Center, Xcel Energy Center or proposed Minnesota Vikings Stadium)

Not bidding:
Madison, WI at Kohl Center(scheduling conflicts with state high school tournaments)

This list will grow over the next several months, so if you have information as to who will bid, please post it in the comments section.

Bracket Watch - NIT Style

2010-03-14T19:21:00.002-05:00

You thought I was done posting brackets? You're wrong! Yes, it's the NIT projection you've all been waiting for.

"Blacksburg" region

1-Virginia Tech vs. 8-QUINNIPIAC
4-Northwestern vs. 5-Saint Louis
2-Seton Hall vs. 7-Marshall
3-William & Mary vs. 6-Charlotte

"Oxford" region

1-Mississippi vs. 8-JACKSON STATE
4-Connecticut vs. 5-Fairfield
2-Arizona State vs. 7-WEBER STATE
3-Uab vs. 6-North Carolina

"Champaign-Urbana" region

1-Illinois vs. 8-JACKSONVILLE
4-KENT STATE vs. 5-Tulsa
2-Rhode Island vs. 7-STONY BROOK
3-Cincinnati vs. 6-Virginia Commonwealth

"Starkville" region
1-Mississippi State vs. 8-TROY
4-Miami(FL) vs. 5-Dayton
2-Memphis vs. 7-COASTAL CAROLINA
3-South Florida vs. 6-Wichita State

Pairings: Blacksburg(1) vs. Oxford(2); Champaign-Urbana(2) vs. Starkville(3)

Last four in the field: North Carolina, VCU, Charlotte, Marshall
First four left out: Texas Tech, Oregon, St. John's, Wright State

Analyzing the finished product

2010-03-14T17:52:00.002-05:00

To all those who decried Minnesota's inclusion into the field at 5:17 PM this afternoon, I have only one thing to say to you....SHUT THE HELL UP!!! Thank you. Now on to the real deal.

Top 4 seeds overall
This was exactly as I predicted as Kansas, Kentucky, Duke and Syracuse went as planned to the Midwest, East, South, and West regions (and all sub-regional sites too). The only other team who could have snuck on to the top line was West Virginia, who were hurt by the non-appearance in the Big East semifinals of Villanova and Pittsburgh, the Mountaineers fellow 2nd place BE teams. Syracuse was really hurt by being swept by Louisville, thus falling to the 4th seed. Kentucky's placement in New Orleans was not as easy a no-brainer as it seemed, there was a good chance they would've been sent to Jacksonville(which is actually closer to the Lexington than the Big Easy), but there was no way the Wildcats would go to Milwaukee, not with credible Big Ten and Big East teams available.

The Last In and the First ones blocked out
For the zillionth time, I missed a team in the field. Florida, rather than Virginia Tech, got in the field(with the Gators getting a surprisingly high 10th seed). The Hokies were hurt by UTEP and Utah State losing in their respective conference finals as well as Minnesota's hot finish in the Big Ten tournament(today's 2nd half after the 14 minute mark not withstanding). Both the Miners and Aggies, however, were included in the field as the last at-large teams, both of them were 12th seeds. Of course the Hokies shot their own foot by losing big to Miami(FL) in the ACC tourney. Besides the Hokies, among those on the outside are Mississippi State, Illinois, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, UAB, Mississippi and William & Mary.

Bracket of Death: Midwest
Kansas could face an angry Northern Iowa squad(angry in the sense that they were seeded two seed lines too low), followed by either Maryland or Michigan State. The bottom half is brutal with Ohio State possibly facing either Georgetown or Tennessee in the sweet 16 and the Hoyas and Vols could potentially face each other in round 2.

Bracket of Cake: South
Duke should have an easy time in the 1st 2 rounds, then for it's sweet 16 matchup, it could face either Siena or Utah State as both could upset Purdue and Texas A&M, respectively. Villanova and Baylor have the potential to meet in the sweet 16, or both could lose in the 2nd round.

Personal Stats
Teams correctly picked: 64/65
Missed on: Florida(in), Virginia Tech(out)
Exactas: 30
+/- 1 seed: 51
Biggest misses: 13 teams at +/- 2(Wake Forest was a true 11 but moved because of placement problems)
Biggest Headscratcher: Marquette in West Virginia's half of the bracket in the East.

Coming up, predicting the NIT.

The Absolute FINAL Bracket Watch projection this season

2010-03-14T16:16:00.003-05:00

Since the Big Ten championship turned into an Ohio State runaway(and I still have Minnesota in the field since they had a 7-3 finish), it's high time to put out the final projection of the season. Please note that after the selection show, I'll analyze the actual field as well as my performance, and I'll project the NIT field again.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-KANSAS vs. 16-LEHIGH
8-Marquette vs. 9-Georgia Tech
@ Jacksonville
4-Tennessee vs. 13-HOUSTON
5-BUTLER vs. 12-SIENA
@ Milwaukee
2-OHIO STATE vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Xavier vs. 10-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-OHIO
6-Maryland vs. 11-Utah State

West region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
4-New Mexico vs. 13-MURRAY STATE
5-Michigan State vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC SANTA BARBARA
7-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 10-Louisville
@ San Jose
3-TEMPLE vs. 14-NEW MEXICO STATE
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-WASHINGTON

East Region

@ New Orleans
1-KENTUCKY vs. 16-ROBERT MORRIS
8-Notre Dame vs. 9-California
@ Spokane
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Wake Forest
@ Buffalo
2-WEST VIRGINIA vs. 15-VERMONT
7-Florida State vs. 10-SAINT MARY'S
@ New Orleans
3-Baylor vs. 14-SAM HOUSTON STATE
6-Brigham Young vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Jacksonville
1-DUKE vs. 16-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
8-Texas vs. 9-SAN DIEGO STATE
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Minnesota
@ Providence
2-Georgetown vs. 15-MORGAN STATE
7-Clemson vs. 10-Missouri
@ Milwaukee
3-Purdue vs. 14-MONTANA
6-Richmond vs. 11-Texas-El Paso

Last four teams to make it: Utah State, Utep, Minnesota, Virginia Tech
Left to wonder what might have been: Mississippi State, Florida, Illinois

2nd draft of the final bracket

2010-03-14T15:10:00.002-05:00

Please note, the absolute final one will be posted after the Big Ten championship.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-KANSAS vs. 16-LEHIGH
8-Marquette vs. 9-Georgia Tech
@ Jacksonville
4-Tennessee vs. 13-HOUSTON
5-BUTLER vs. 12-SIENA
@ Milwaukee
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Xavier vs. 10-SAN DIEGO STATE
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-OHIO
6-Maryland vs. 11-Utah State

West region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
4-New Mexico vs. 13-MURRAY STATE
5-Michigan State vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC SANTA BARBARA
7-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 10-Louisville
@ San Jose
3-TEMPLE vs. 14-NEW MEXICO STATE
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-WASHINGTON

East Region

@ New Orleans
1-KENTUCKY vs. 16-ROBERT MORRIS
8-Notre Dame vs. 9-California
@ Spokane
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Wake Forest
@ Buffalo
2-WEST VIRGINIA vs. 15-VERMONT
7-Florida State vs. 10-SAINT MARY'S
@ New Orleans
3-Baylor vs. 14-SAM HOUSTON STATE
6-Brigham Young vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Jacksonville
1-DUKE vs. 16-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
8-Texas vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Minnesota
@ Providence
2-Georgetown vs. 15-MORGAN STATE
7-Clemson vs. 10-Missouri
@ Milwaukee
3-Purdue vs. 14-MONTANA
6-Richmond vs. 11-Texas-El Paso

Last four teams to make it: Utah State, Utep, Minnesota, Virginia Tech
Left to wonder what might have been: Mississippi State, Florida, Illinois

My projected seed list

2010-03-14T10:30:00.002-05:00

Listed in 1-65 order, not 1-16.

1: KANSAS
2: Kentucky
3: Duke
4: Syracuse
5: WEST VIRGINIA
6: Ohio State
7: Kansas State
8: Georgetown
9: Purdue
10: Villanova
11: Baylor
12: Temple
13: Wisconsin
14: Pittsburgh
15: New Mexico
16: Tennessee
17: Michigan State
18: BUTLER
19: Vanderbilt
20: Texas A&M
21: Maryland
22: Brigham Young
23: Richmond
24: Gonzaga
25: Florida State
26: NORTHERN IOWA
27: Xavier
28: Clemson
29: Georgia Tech
30: Notre Dame
31: Texas
32: Marquette
33: Oklahoma State
34: Nevada-Las Vegas
35: California
36: SAINT MARY'S
37: Louisville
38: OLD DOMINION
39: SAN DIEGO STATE
40: Missouri
41: Wake Forest
42: WASHINGTON
43: Utah State
44: Texas-El Paso
45: CORNELL
46: Minnesota
47: Virginia Tech
48: SIENA
49: MURRAY STATE
50: OAKLAND
51: WOFFORD
52: HOUSTON
53: MONTANA
54: SAM HOUSTON STATE
55: NEW MEXICO STATE
56: OHIO
57: MORGAN STATE
58: UC SANTA BARBARA
59: NORTH TEXAS
60: VERMONT
61: EAST TENNESSEE STATE
62: ROBERT MORRIS
63: LEHIGH
64: WINTHROP
65: ARKANASAS-PINE BLUFF

Bracket Watch - Preliminary Final Bracket

2010-03-14T10:15:00.002-05:00

This is what I think will happen should all the favorites (Duke, Temple, Ohio State, Kentucky) win today. In fact I have changed the bracket several times since initially putting it to paper. In fact it may change several times before the final one is released before 5 PM CT. That said, in my next post, I'll post my seed list.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-KANSAS vs. 16-LEHIGH
8-Marquette vs. 9-Georgia Tech
@ San Jose
4-Tennessee vs. 13-HOUSTON
5-BUTLER vs. 12-SIENA
@ Milwaukee
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Xavier vs. 10-SAN DIEGO STATE
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-OHIO
6-Maryland vs. 11-Utah State

West region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
4-New Mexico vs. 13-MURRAY STATE
5-Michigan State vs. 12-Virginia Tech
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC SANTA BARBARA
7-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 10-Louisville
@ Jacksonville
3-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 14-NEW MEXICO STATE
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-WASHINGTON

East Region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-ROBERT MORRIS
8-Notre Dame vs. 9-California
@ Spokane
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Wake Forest
@ Buffalo
2-WEST VIRGINIA vs. 15-VERMONT
7-Florida State vs. 10-SAINT MARY'S
@ New Orleans
3-Baylor vs. 14-SAM HOUSTON STATE
6-Brigham Young vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
8-Texas vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-OAKLAND
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Minnesota
@ Providence
2-Georgetown vs. 15-MORGAN STATE
7-Clemson vs. 10-Missouri
@ Milwaukee
3-Purdue vs. 14-MONTANA
6-Richmond vs. 11-Texas-El Paso

Last four teams to make it: Utah State, Utep, Minnesota, Virginia Tech
First four left in the dust: Mississippi State, Florida, Illinois, Seton Hall
Everyone else who could be considered: Arizona State, William & Mary, Memphis, Miami(FL), Wichita State

Reminders

2010-03-14T08:18:00.001-05:00

Look for my 1st draft of the final bracket to come out by Noon, with the final edition to be released after the Big Ten championship.

The Saturday Setup

2010-03-13T05:26:00.002-06:00

As I explained in yesterday's projection post, I'm not doing a full field projection today, just a rundown of how the seeds of the field would be. Before that, though, here's what happened yesterday:

In the Big East, West Virginia held off Notre Dame to secure a spot in the championship game where they'll faced Georgetown, a 78-50 conqueror of Marquette. In the ACC, the higher-seed-goes-down-to-defeat syndrome hit seeds 2 through 4, but Duke avoided it and should be heavily favored to knock off Miami(FL), an avowed enemy of the bubble. NC State is also an enemy and faces Georgia Tech, whose victory over Maryland secured it's spot. The Big Ten had 4 great finishes, kicked off by Evan Turner's last second desperation heave to lift Ohio State over hated Michigan, finished off by resillient Minnesota's OT triumph over Michigan State to help the Gophers stay in the chase. The Mountain West had one exciting finish and some officiating controversy, all in the same game. That game was San Diego State's 72-69 triumph over New Mexico, which secured the Aztecs' spot on the guest list. They'll face UNLV who beat BYU in semi #2. Chalk held up for the most part in the Atlantic 10, SEC, Pac-10, Big 12 and WAC(save for Nevada's loss to New Mexico State).

Thus it brings me to the seeds of the field; enjoy;

1: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
2: Ohio State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Purdue
3: Villanova, Tennessee, Georgetown, Michigan State
4: New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Temple
5: BUTLER, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Baylor
6: Maryland, Richmond, Xavier, Gonzaga
7: Brigham Young, Texas, Notre Dame, California
8: Unlv, Utep, NORTHERN IOWA, Clemson
9: Florida State, SAINT MARY'S, Marquette, Oklahoma State
10: Georgia Tech, Utah State, San Diego State, OLD DOMINION
11: Wake Forest, Missouri, Louisville, CORNELL
12: Virginia Tech, Florida, SIENA, Washington
13: Illinois, Minnesota, MURRAY STATE, OAKLAND
14: MONTANA, Akron, WOFFORD, Sam Houston State
15: Morgan State, UC Santa Barbara, Vermont, NORTH TEXAS
16: ETSU, ROBERT MORRIS, LEHIGH, Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

New to the field: Minnesota
Out of the field: Mississippi
Last five to make it: Virginia Tech, Florida, Washington, Illinois, Minnesota
First four on the waiting list: Mississippi State, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Arizona State
Next four on the waiting list: William & Mary, Seton Hall, South Florida, Memphis
The enemies: Miami(FL), NC State, Houston, New Mexico State

Bracket Watch - Hell comes to bracketville

2010-03-12T08:34:00.002-06:00

Thursday, March 11 will go down as one of the wackiest days in college basketball history as higher seed after higher seed went down after inglorious losses in conference tourneys. In the ACC, only Georgia Tech won amongst higher seeds. In the Big East, only West Virginia won amongst the top four. In Conference USA, UTEP held serve, but the three teams below the Miners did not. In the Mid-American, both division winners(Kent State and Central Michigan) lost. In the Pacific-10, California won, Arizona State did not. Form (fortunately) held for the most part in the SEC and held up in full in the Big Ten, Big 12 and Mountain West.

As a result of all this carnage, 57 of the 65 spots in the dance are spoken for, leaving 8 for the bubble and villans of the bubble. Here's how it shook out:

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-Notre Dame vs. 9-Utep(Conference USA)
@ Spokane
4-Maryland vs. 13-WOFFORD
5-BUTLER vs. 12-San Diegon State*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Texas vs. 10-Wake Forest
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-OAKLAND
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-ROBERT MORRIS
8-California(Pacific-10) vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ Providence
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-SIENA
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-CORNELL
@ Milwaukee
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-Vermont(America East)
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Missouri
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-MONTANA
6-Marquette vs. 11-Georgia Tech*

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Clemson
@ San Jose
4-Georgetown vs. 13-Washington*
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Illinois
@ Buffalo
2-West Virginia(Big East) vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ New Orleans
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Brigham Young vs. 11-Florida*

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening round: WINTHROP vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff(Southwestern)
8-Nevada-Las Vegas vs. 9-SAINT MARY'S
@ Spokane
4-Michigan State vs. 13-MURRAY STATE
5-Baylor vs. 12-Mississippi*
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-OLD DOMINION
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-Akron(Mid-American)
6-Xavier vs. 11-Louisville*

Procedural moves: Oklahoma State(up 1), Virginia Tech(down 1)

New to the field: Akron, Illinois, Washington
Out of the field: Arizona State, Kent State, Memphis

Last four in the field: San Diego State, Mississippi, Illinois, Washington
First four in line: Rhode Island, Minnesota, Arizona State, Memphis
Next four in line: Dayton, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Tulsa
Also in line: Saint Louis, William & Mary, Southern Mississippi, South Florida, Nevada, Miami(FL)

Please note: I will not be doing a full bracket Tomorrow, as I will be going to the Minnesota state high school boy's hockey championships. I will be doing, however, a seeding of the top 16 teams.

Bracket Watch - A bored Thursday Projection

2010-03-11T07:56:00.002-06:00

Sayonara South Florida. So Long Seton Hall. Those two teams had opprotunities to make their way into the field of 65 yesterday, and both proceeded to look lethargic in doing so. The Bulls fell flat against a Georgetown team it had defeated in Washington a few weeks back, whilst the Pirates were looted and pillaged by Notre Dame to the tune of a 12 point loss.

Elsewhere, Missouri got embarrased by Nebraska, 75-60, which may give the committee a convienent excuse to leave them out if it comes down to the Tigers and maybe say...William & Mary. In terms of Auto Bids, Anthony Johnson literally clinched Montana's bid via the Big Sky championship by scoring the Grizzlies' last 21 points in overcoming Weber State, 66-65 in Ogden. In the Northeast title bout, Robert Morris proceeded to become a defensive juggernaut and held off Quinnipiac by a 52-50 decision.

And to the brackets we go.

Notes: * denotes a bubble team. CAPS indicate team has won the automatic bid.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-Marquette vs. 9-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA)
@ Spokane
4-Maryland vs. 13-SIENA
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-San Diego State*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Clemson vs. 10-Missouri
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Richmond vs. 11-CORNELL

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Gonzaga vs. 10-Louisville
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)*

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-ROBERT MORRIS
8-California(Pacific-10) vs. 9-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
4-Baylor vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Vermont(America East)
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-OAKLAND
6-Texas vs. 11-Florida*

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff(Southwestern)
8-Florida State vs. 9-SAINT MARY'S
@ Spokane
4-Michigan State vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-BUTLER vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-MONTANA
7-Xavier vs. 10-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-WOFFORD
6-Wake Forest vs. 11-Notre Dame

New to the field: Montana, Robert Morris
Out of the field: Quinnipiac, Weber State
Procedural moves: Clemson(up 1), Richmond(up 1), Virginia Tech(up 1), Brigham Young(down 1), Marquette(down 1), Utah State(down 1)

Last four in the field: San Diego State, Memphis, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four in line: Illinois, Washington, Uab, Mississippi State
Next four in line: Dayton, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Saint Louis
Also in line: William & Mary, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, South Florida

Bracket Watch - It's All Downhill From Here

2010-03-10T07:08:00.002-06:00

So far, it has mostly been chalk that has ruled in the conference tournaments. Last night was no exception. Butler continued to aid the good luck hopes of bubblers everywhere, routing Wright State 70-45 in the Horizon championship, Oakland cruised to a 76-64 win against IUPUI to reach the summit of the Summit, and North Texas knocked off Troy 66-63 in the Sun Belt final(OK the Mean Green were second seeded, but you get the point).

All however was not well with a few bubblers trying to hang on. Connecticut's plunge from top seed to non-factor on the bubble is complete, by way of a 73-51 late-game rout by St. John's, while Charlotte, trying to gain the fringe was denied by Massachusetts in a 59-56 decision.

The result of this carnage is the bracket is still little changed from yesterday.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Notre Dame
@ Spokane
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-BUTLER vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-NORTH TEXAS
7-Texas vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-OAKLAND
6-Xavier vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-Baylor vs. 12-San Diego State
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
7-Louisville vs. 10-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Vermont(America East)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Marquette
@ San Jose
4-Maryland vs. 13-SIENA
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Clemson
@ Jacksonville
3-Michigan State vs. 14-WOFFORD
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-SAINT MARY'S
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Florida*

New to the field: North Texas
Out: Troy

Procedural moves: Cornell(up 1), Notre Dame(up 1), Texas-El Paso(up 1), Clemson(down 1), Georgia Tech(down 1), Oklahoma State(down 1)

Last four in the field: Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four left out: Illinois, Washington, South Florida, Uab
Next four left out: Rhode Island Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota
Also on board: Saint Louis, Seton Hall, Marshall, Wichita State, Nevada

Bracket Watch - Chalky Tuesday

2010-03-09T06:53:00.002-06:00

Last night the chalk held up in 3 of the 4 games that decided bids for the NCAA, but not without some tense moments. In the Colonial final in Richmond, Old Dominion held the lead for most of the game, but William & Mary never gave up the ghost until late. Siena had to rally from 15 points down to force overtime vs. Fairfield in the MAAC final on it's homecourt. The Saints subsequently won it by 7. Wofford exploded to a 15 point lead over Appalachian State in the Southern final in Charlotte, but the roles reversed as the Mountaineers started to reel the Terriers in. It was, however, all in vain as Wofford scored a 56-51 win for it's first Big Dance invite. On the other hand, Gonzaga could not take down the steely resolve of Saint Mary's in Las Vegas for the West Coast title. With the score 46-43, Gaels center Omar Samhan was whistled for a technical foul. From that point onward, the Gaels went on a 35-19 binge to end it, and to insure that they wouldn't sweat it out on Sunday. Where does this all bring us? Read on.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Notre Dame
@ Spokane
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Troy(Sun Belt)
7-Texas vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Xavier vs. 11-Florida*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-Baylor vs. 12-San Diego State
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
7-Louisville vs. 10-OLD DOMINION
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Gonzaga vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Vermont(America East)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Marquette
@ San Jose
4-Maryland vs. 13-SIENA
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Clemson
@ Jacksonville
3-Michigan State vs. 14-WOFFORD
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-SAINT MARY'S
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas*

Procedural moves: Cornell(up 1), Notre Dame(up 1), Texas-El Paso(up 1), Clemson(down 1), Georgia Tech(down 1), Oklahoma State(down 1)

Last four in the field: Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four left out: Illinois, Washington, Uab, Rhode Island
Next four left out: South Florida, Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota
Also on board: Saint Louis, Connecticut, Seton Hall, Marshall, Wichita State, Nevada

Should there be any "upsets" tonight, here's how I would seed them:
Wright State(Horizon): 13-15
IUPUI(Summit): 14-15
North Texas(Sun Belt): 15-16

Bracket Watch - Time to get serious

2010-03-08T08:33:00.003-06:00

The frivolousness of the season is done. Now it's time for teams all across the bubble to decide whether or not they want to play on the biggest tournament stage in the world. And after this past week, many of them want to sit out the big dance out.

From now until Selection Sunday, I'll be posting daily projections(except for Saturday) of the field. And even on Saturday, I'll post a Sweet 16 seed list. Also note, all teams that have qualified for the big dance are in CAPS for the duration of the projections and all teams that I've deemed to be on the bubble are asterisked*.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Lehigh(Patriot)
8-NORTHERN IOWA vs. 9-Notre Dame
@ Spokane
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Georgia Tech*
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Troy(Sun Belt)
7-Texas vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Xavier vs. 11-Florida*

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi*
5-Baylor vs. 12-San Diego State
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-EAST TENNESSEE STATE
7-Louisville vs. 10-Old Dominion(Colonial)*
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Vermont(America East)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Marquette
@ San Jose
4-Maryland vs. 13-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Memphis*
@ Providence
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Clemson
@ Jacksonville
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Wofford(Southern)
6-Texas A&M vs. 11-CORNELL

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner:
Opening Round: WINTHROP vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Arizona State*
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-MURRAY STATE
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Florida State vs. 10-Nevada-Las Vegas*
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-St. Mary's*

Procedural moves: Cornell(up 1), Notre Dame(up 1), Texas-El Paso(up 1), Clemson(down 1), Georgia Tech(down 1), Oklahoma State(down 1)

New to the field: Vermont, East Tennessee State, Winthrop, Arizona State, Mississippi
Out of the field: Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Rhode Island, Coastal Carolina, Illinois

Last four in the field: Memphis, San Diego State, Arizona State, Mississippi
First four left out: Illinois, Washington, Uab, Rhode Island
Next four left out: South Florida, Dayton, Mississippi State, Minnesota
Also on board: Saint Louis, Connecticut, Seton Hall, William & Mary, Marshall, Wichita State, Nevada

Now there are four bids up for grabs tonight. Should there be any upsets, here are the seeds the upsetters would likely get:

Appalachian State: 14-16
Fairfield: 13-14
St. Mary's: 9-10
William & Mary: 11-12

Bracket Watch - Twisted Friday

2010-03-05T09:06:00.002-06:00

I'm not going to say much about this bracket, but the most difficult part was not choosing the last team, it was trying to put them in bracket that was the most difficult thing this week. So many teams had to be moved around, I won't be able to list them all today.

Final four pairings:
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. East(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Nevada-Las Vegas vs. 9-Northern Iowa
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
5-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 12-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
@ Milwaukee
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-Troy(Sun Belt)
7-Texas A&M vs. 10-Florida State
@ New Orleans
3-Vanderbilt vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Sun Belt)
6-Xavier vs. 11-Cornell(Ivy)

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Stony Brook(America East)
8-Marquette vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
@ San Jose
4-Brigham Young vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Temple(Atlantic 10) vs. 12-Illinois
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Clemson vs. 10-Louisville
@ Providence
3-Villanova vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Wisconsin vs. 11-St. Mary's

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Opening round winner
Opening Round: Lehigh(Patriot) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-Old Dominion(Colonial)
@ Spokane
4-Maryland vs. 13-Rhode Island
5-Baylor vs. 12-San Diego State
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Oklahoma State vs. 10-Georgia Tech
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-Wofford(Southern)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Jacksonville(Atlantic Sun)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Wake Forest
@ Providence
4-Michigan State vs. 13-Memphis
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Notre Dame
@ Buffalo
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond vs. 10-Florida
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Texas vs. 11-Virginia Tech

New to the field: Jacksonville, Memphis, Rhode Island, Virginia Tech
Out of the field: Uab, Connecticut, Lipscomb, Mississippi State

Last four in the field: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Memphis
First four left out: Connecticut, Mississippi State, Uab, Arizona State
Next four left out: Mississippi, Minnesota, Washington, Seton Hall
Also under consideration: South Florida, Arkansas, Texas Tech, William & Mary, Wichita State

Don't forget, I'll be doing daily updates starting Monday(except Saturday) and will continue through Sunday afternoon.

The Woody Woodpecker Game

2010-03-02T08:55:00.003-06:00

It's time to guess which team is hiding behind the resume and more importantly, you have two pick one team to fill up the field. All data is current as of today and comes from http://rivals.yahoo.com/.

Team A
RPI Rank: 70
Divsion I Record: 17-11
SOS Rank: 43
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-6
Record vs. RPI 51-100: 2-2
Record vs. RPI 101-150: 1-2
Record vs. RPI 151-200: 5-0
Record vs. RPI 201-347: 6-1

Team B
RPI Rank: 39
Division I Record: 18-8
SOS Rank: 62
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-5
Record vs. RPI 51-100: 1-1
Record vs. RPI 101-150: 2-1
Record vs. RPI 151-200: 7-0
Record vs. RPI 201-347: 6-1

Hint: The two teams are seperated by two spots on my seed list(one is in, the other is out).

Bracket Watch's Open Bracket is open!

2010-03-01T13:03:00.002-06:00

Click on the link above this post and you have the chance to play against other brackets in the Yahoo! Tournament Pick 'em contest. To play in open bracket, just create a pick set, click join a group and enter id# 5850. It's open to the public so invite your friends to play.

Predicting the conference tournament champions

2010-03-01T09:24:00.002-06:00

Once again this season, I'll attempt to predict the 30 conference tournament champions.

America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Coast: Maryland
Atlantic Sun: Lipscomb
Atlantic 10: Temple
Big East: Syracuse
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big Ten: Minnesota
Big 12: Kansas State
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Ball State
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: New Mexico
Northeast: Mount St. Mary's
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Pacific-10: California
Patriot League: Bucknell
Southeastern: Kentucky
Southern: Wofford
Southland: Sam Houston State
Southwestern: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee
West Coast: St. Mary's
Western Athletic: Nevada

Bracket Watch - And they want to expand the field to 96?

2010-03-01T08:26:00.002-06:00

And now here's a reminder about leaving your telly on ESPN. Leave your telly on ESPN.

Seriously, it appears that nobody wants to make the field of 65 this year(I said this last year too). And yet some people still want to expand to 96 so that their favorite BCS 6 team makes it in(and Northwestern will still miss out). But this year, I could make the case for eliminating the Opening Round game. I can count 27 at-large teams in the newest projection that I could pick without having to throw up. But let's just say that I didn't throw up while making out the newest brackets.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
South(2) vs. East(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Quinnipiac(Northeast)
8-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA) vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ San Jose
4-Butler(Horizon) vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Maryland vs. 12-Connecticut
@ Providence
2-Villanova vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Baylor vs. 10-Florida
@ Milwaukee
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Xavier(Atlantic 10) vs. 11-St. Mary's

West region

@ Jacksonville
1-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 16-Lipscomb(Atlantic Sun)
8-Texas vs. 9-Uab
@ Spokane
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
5-Temple vs. 12-Notre Dame
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Clemson vs. 10-Louisville
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Vanderbilt vs. 11-Utah State(Western Athletic)

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Lehigh(Patriot) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Northern Iowa(Missouri Valley) vs. 9-Georgia Tech
@ Spokane
4-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 13-San Diego State
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Mississippi State
@ Buffalo
2-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Wake Forest vs. 10-Marquette
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-Wofford(Southern)
6-Georgetown vs. 11-Cornell(Ivy)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Stony Brook(America East)
8-Missouri vs. 9-California(Pacific-10)
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Illinois
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Troy(Sun Belt)
7-Oklahoma State vs. 10-Florida State
@ Providence
3-West Virginia vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Richmond vs. 11-Old Dominion(Colonial)

Procedural moves: Clemson(up 1), Cornell(up 1), Connecticut(down 1), Missouri(down 1)
New to the field: Lipscomb, Notre Dame, Quinnipiac, San Diego State, Troy
Out of the field: Jacksonville, North Texas, Rhode Island, Robert Morris, Virginia Tech

Last four in the field: Mississippi State, Illinois, Notre Dame, San Diego State
First four left out: Virginia Tech, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Dayton
Next four left out: Washington, Memphis, Arizona State, Wichita State
Also on board: Miami(FL), Cincinnati, Saint Louis, New Mexico State, South Florida, Mississippi, Texas Tech

Now if you want to complain about expansion, here's the address to complain to:
The Royal Frog Trampling Institiute
16 Rayners Lane
London, W.C. Fields

I'll just repeat that:
Tristam and Isolde Philips
7.30 Covent Garden
Saturday(near Sunday)
and afterwards at the Inigo Jones Fish Emporium

Bracket Watch - Friday, February 26th

2010-02-26T09:05:00.003-06:00

UPDATE as of 12:08 PM: Fixed a few matchups so as to avoid a Georgetown-Temple or Old Dominion matchup.

A friendly reminder to all who visit that I also have another blog out there. It's called Conference Tournament Central. It's where I update all 31 conference tournaments daily. The blog can be accessed on the right hand side of the page in the college basketball statistics links.

Note: Starting now, the projected winner in some conferences will be the top seed in it's conference tournament.

Final four pairings:
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Robert Morris(Northeast)
8-Florida State vs. 9-Connecticut
@ San Jose
4-Tennessee vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
@ Buffalo
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Xavier vs. 10-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA)
@ Milwaukee
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Wake Forest vs. 11-Nevada-Las Vegas

West region

@ Milwaukee
1-Purdue(Big Ten) vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Lehigh(Patriot) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern Athletic)
8-Northern Iowa(Missouri Valley) vs. 9-Virginia Tech
@ Spokane
4-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 13-Mississippi State
5-Texas vs. 12-Marquette
@ Jacksonville
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-North Texas(Sun Belt)
7-Texas A&M vs. 10-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Providence
3-Georgetown vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Richmond(Atlantic 10) vs. 11-UAB

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Jacksonville(Atlantic Sun)
8-Missouri vs. 9-Clemson
@ San Jose
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Rhode Island
@ Providence
2-Villanova vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Baylor vs. 10-Florida
@ Jacksonville
3-Ohio State vs. 14-Wofford(Southern)
6-Maryland vs. 11-Old Dominion(Colonial)

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Stony Brook(America East)
8-California(Pacific-10) vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ New Orleans
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Cornell(Ivy)
5-Wisconsin vs. 12-Georgia Tech
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Illinois vs. 10-Louisville
@ Spokane
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Temple vs. 11-St. Mary's

Procedural moves: Connecticut(up 1), Virginia Tech(up 1), Florida(down 1), UTEP(down 1)

New to the field: Jacksonville, Connecticut, Mississippi State, Wofford
Out of the field: Campbell, Dayton, Northeastern, College of Charleston

Last four in the field: Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, Marquette, Mississippi State
First four left out: San Diego State, Dayton, Notre Dame, Arizona State
Next four left out: Washington, Charlotte, Mississippi, South Florida
Also under consideration: Virginia, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Tulsa, New Mexico State

Next projection: Monday

The Woody Woodpecker game 3.0

2010-02-24T08:38:00.004-06:00

Once again, it's your turn to pick out and guess who's resume you just picked: All info is current as of Tuesday night and comes from the college basketball section on http://rivals.yahoo.com/:

Team A:
RPI rank: 64
Division I record: 18-10
SOS rank: 58
record vs. RPI top 50: 4-6
record vs. 51-100 in RPI: 2-2
record vs. 101-150 in RPI: 0-2
record vs. 151-200 in RPI: 6-0
record vs. 201-347 in RPI: 6-0

Team B:
RPI rank: t-58
Division I record: 17-9
SOS rank: 53
record vs. RPI top 50: 1-6
record vs. 51-100 in RPI: 3-2
record vs. 101-150 in RPI: 3-1
record vs. 151-200 in RPI: 2-0
record vs. 201-347 in RPI: 8-0

Hints: Team A faces a tricky(but manageable) finish, while Team B is behind a non-bubble team in a weak division. It's a cross-regional comparison this week too.

About last night - Get your mea culpas!

2010-02-23T07:21:00.003-06:00

Ok, I'll admit it. I was wrong about not including the UConn Huskies in my latest bracket. The mistake was not letting them in last Friday, not yesterday. But after Kemba Walker had 21 points and Stanley Robinson racked up a double-double(15 points, 13 boards) in a 73-62 win over West Virginia, there's no denying that the Huskies are very much deserving of being one the 34 at-large teams. Their schedule, however, still remains tricky, with Louisville coming in to Storrs this weekend, followed by road games at desperate Notre Dame and at desperate South Florida.

Elsewhere; Kansas wrapped up half of the Big 12 regular season crown by blitzing Oklahoma and Morgan State secured the top seed in the MEAC tournament by edging UMES on the road.

Bracket Watch - 30 years after the 1st Miracle

2010-02-22T08:41:00.002-06:00

Today marks the 30 year anniversary of the Miracle on Ice, where a collection of college kids representing the United States in Olympic hockey(average age: 22) shocked the sporting world defeating the Soviet Union 4-3 in Lake Placid, NY. The win set the stage for the USA to win gold and helped make Hockey cool throughout the country. Last night, a youthful US team did it again, downing heavily favored Canada 5-3 in front of a (mostly) partisan crowd in Vancouver. What does this have to do with Bracketology you ask? Well who can pull off a miracle finish and make the dance? Look at the first four out and next four out columns and you may find a team who could pull it off.

Final Four pairings:
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-North Texas(Sun Belt)
8-Florida State vs. 9-Louisville
@ Spokane
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-Oakland(Summit)
5-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 12-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Buffalo
2-Pittsburgh vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Xavier vs. 10-Old Dominion
@ Milwaukee
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Missouri vs. 11-California(Pacific-10)

West region

@ Milwaukee
1-Purdue(Big Ten) vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening round: Jackson State(Southwestern Athletic) vs. Bucknell(Patriot)
8-Baylor vs. 9-Clemson
@ San Jose
4-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 13-Weber State(Big Sky)
5-Georgetown vs. 12-Rhode Island
@ Jacksonville
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Texas A&M vs. 10-Uab
@ Providence
3-West Virginia vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Richmond(Atlantic 10) vs. 11-Illinois

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Campbell(Atlantic Sun)
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Cornell(Ivy)
@ San Jose
4-Temple vs. 13-Marquette
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Georgia Tech
@ Providence
2-Villanova vs. 15-Stony Brook(America East)
7-Virginia Tech vs. 10-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
@ New Orleans
3-Ohio State vs. 14-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
6-Texas vs. 11-St. Mary's

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Robert Morris(Northeast)
8-Wake Forest vs. 9-Florida
@ Spokane
4-Butler(Horizon) vs. 13-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
5-Wisconsin vs. 12-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA)
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-Sam Houston State(Southland)
7-Northern Iowa(Missouri Valley) vs. 10-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-Northeastern(Colonial)
6-Maryland vs. 11-Dayton

Moving up for procedural purposes: Coastal Carolina(was a 15), Oakland(was a 14)
Moving down for procedural purposes: UC Santa Barbara(was a 14), Kent State(was a 13)

New to the field: Campbell, Marquette
Out of the field: Belmont, San Diego State

Last four in the field: Nevada-Las Vegas, Georgia Tech, Rhode Island, Marquette
First four left out: San Diego State, Connecticut, Mississippi State, Mississippi
Next four left out: Charlotte, Washington, Arizona State, Notre Dame
Also under consideration: Saint Louis, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Virginia Commonwealth, Memphis, Tulsa, Wichita State, UCLA

Next projection is on Friday(after the US women win gold, of course!)

Bracket Watch - Friday freak-out

2010-02-19T08:42:00.002-06:00

Can anyone figure out the Pacific-10 conference? Or for that matter, the Sun Belt? There's a five-way orgy for the lead, and I have no interest in sorting it out. So I went for North Texas as the leader, as they have the highest RPI rank of the five. As for the Pac-10, anyone who still clings to the belief that it deserves at least two teams in the dance should give up such notions after Washington lost at home to Southern California and California fell to sad-sack Oregon State.

As always, these projections are done as if the season ended the night before.

Final Four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Stony Brook(America East)
8-Xavier vs. 9-Louisville
@ New Orleans
4-Vanderbilt vs. 13-San Diego State
5-Wake Forest vs. 12-Uab
@ Milwaukee
2-Michigan State(Big Ten) vs. 15- UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Northern Iowa(Missouri Valley) vs. 10-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Buffalo
3-Pittsburgh vs. 14-Northeastern(Colonial)
6-Missouri vs. 11-Dayton

West region

@ Milwaukee
1-Purdue vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Lehigh(Patriot) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern Athletic)
8-Old Dominion vs. 9-Clemson
@ San Jose
4- Georgetown vs. 13-Weber State(Big Sky)
5-Brigham Young vs. 12-Rhode Island
@ Jacksonville
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Richmond(Atlantic 10) vs. 10-St. Mary's
@ Providence
3-West Virginia vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Texas vs. 11-Cornell(Ivy)

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
8-Georgia Tech vs. 9-Illinois
@ Spokane
4-Temple vs. 13-Kent State(Mid-American)
5-Texas A&M vs. 12-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
@ Providence
2-Villanova vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Maryland vs. 10-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Baylor vs. 11-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA)

South region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse(Big East) vs. 16-Robert Morris(Northeast)
8-Virginia Tech vs. 9-Oklahoma State
@ Spokane
4-Wisconsin vs. 13-Florida
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-North Texas(Sun Belt)
7-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 10-Florida State
@ Jacksonville
3-Tennessee vs. 14-College of Charleston(Southern)
6-Ohio State vs. California(Pacific-10)

Procedural moves up: Old Dominion(up 1), St. Mary's(up 1), Murray State(up 1), Butler(up 1)
Procedural moves down: Dayton(down 1), Illinois(down 1), Florida(down 1), Ohio State(down 1)

Last four in the field: Uab, Rhode Island, Florida, San Diego State
First four left out: Mississippi, William & Mary, South Florida, Charlotte
Next four left out: Seton Hall, Marquette, Mississippi State, Cincinnati
Also under consideration: Virginia, Saint Louis, Connecticut, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Memphis, Tulsa, Arizona State, Washington, South Carolina

New to the field: San Diego State, Florida, North Texas, St. Mary's
Out of the field: Charlotte, Marquette, Mississippi, Middle Tennessee

Week 2 of the Woody Woodpecker Game

2010-02-17T08:59:00.003-06:00

Time to play another game of picking out blind resumes of NCAA tournament hopefuls. Information comes from rivals.yahoo.com and is through Tuesday night's games.

Team A
RPI Rank: 44
Division I Record: 21-5
Strength of Schedule rank: 106
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
Record vs. 51-100 in RPI: 3-2
Record vs. 101-150 in RPI: 2-0
Record vs. 151-347 in RPI: 13-0
Conference Record: 8-3

Team B
RPI Rank: 52
Division I Record: 17-8
Strength of Schedule rank: 41
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
Record vs. 51-100 in RPI: 4-3
Record vs. 101-150 in RPI: 4-1
Record vs. 151-347 in RPI: 7-1
Conference Record: 7-6

Hint: Both teams are in western conferences. I'll leave it at that.

Bracket Watch - Better late than never

2010-02-15T11:04:00.002-06:00

My apologies for being a bit late today, but I'm currently posting from a rather old computer. The machine that I had been using, an MSNTV2, finally died after five and a half years of use. This forced me to post last Friday's projection somewhere else. Fortunately, I'm expecting a new one to arrive this Friday, but for now, I'm down in my basement posting this. Without more ado, here are the latest projections(through Sunday's games).

Final four pairings
Midwest(1) vs. West(4)
East(2) vs. South(3)

Midwest region

@ Oklahoma City
1-Kansas(Big 12) vs. 16-Middle Tennessee(Sun Belt)
8-California(Pacific-10) vs. 9-Nevada-Las Vegas
@ Spokane
4-Pittsburgh vs. 13-Mississippi
5-Butler(Horizon) vs. 12-Florida State
@ Buffalo
2-West Virginia vs. 15-Morgan State(Mid-Eastern)
7-Xavier vs. 10-Siena(Metro Atlantic)
@ Milwaukee
3-Wisconsin vs. 14-Kent State(Mid-American)
6-Maryland vs. 11-Texas-El Paso(Conference USA)

West region

@ Buffalo
1-Syracuse vs. 16-Opening Round winner
Opening Round: Lehigh(Patriot) vs. Jackson State(Southwestern)
8-Oklahoma State vs. 9-Clemson
@Spokane
4-Gonzaga(West Coast) vs. 13-Northeastern(Colonial)
5-Vanderbilt vs. 12-Murray State(Ohio Valley)
@ Jacksonville
2-Duke(Atlantic Coast) vs. 15-Stony Brook(America East)
7-Richmond(Atlantic 10) vs. 10-Missouri
3-Michigan State vs. 14-Sam Houston State(Southland)
6-Baylor vs. 11-UAB

East region

@ New Orleans
1-Kentucky(Southeastern) vs. 16-Belmont(Atlantic Sun)
8-Texas A&M vs. 9-Rhode Island
@ San Jose
4-Ohio State(Big Ten) vs. 13-Louisville
5-Wake Forest vs. 12-Utah State(Western Athletic)
@ Oklahoma City
2-Kansas State vs. 15-UC Santa Barbara(Big West)
7-Brigham Young vs. 10-Charlotte
@ Providence
3-Georgetown vs. 14-Oakland(Summit)
6-Illinois vs. 11-Cornell(Ivy)

South region

@ Providence
1-Villanova(Big East) vs. 16-Robert Morris(Northeast)
8-Georgia Tech vs. 9-Old Dominion
@ New Orleans
4-Texas vs. 13-College of Charleston(Southern)
5-Tennessee vs. 12-Dayton
@ Milwaukee
2-Purdue vs. 15-Coastal Carolina(Big South)
7-Northern Iowa(Missouri Valley) vs. 10-Virginia Tech
@ San Jose
3-New Mexico(Mountain West) vs. 14-Weber State(Big Sky)
6-Temple vs. 11-Marquette

Up a seed: Maryland(should be a 7), Richmond(should be an 8), Old Dominion(should be a 10), Murray State(should be a 13)
Down a seed: Brigham Young(should be a 6), Georgia Tech(should be a 7), Virginia Tech(should be a 9), Louisville(should be a 12)

Last four in the field: Florida State, Dayton, Louisville, Mississippi
First four left out: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Mississippi State, Washington
Next four left out: St. Mary's, Seton Hall, Arizona State, Florida
Also on the list: St. John's, Northwestern, Tulsa, Memphis, Virginia, Saint Louis, Texas Tech, Virginia Commonwealth, South Carolina, South Florida, Marshall, Wichita State

Moving in: Louisville, Oklahoma State, Lehigh, Mississippi
Moving out: South Florida, Navy, Florida, Mississippi State